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Penn State-Iowa Betting Guide: Buy Low on the Nittany Lions?

Oct 27, 2018 2:17 PM EDT

Iowa-Penn State Betting Pick, Odds

  • Odds: Penn State -6.5
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


Penn State enters a brutal schedule stretch that includes Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin over the next three weeks. Will this be the start of a resurgence for the Nittany Lions, or were their previous three games a sign of things to come?

Market Moves for Penn State-Iowa

By Danny Donahue 

Iowa has been a trendy underdog all week. Opening at +4 at Pinnacle, the Hawkeyes have drawn 69% of bets and 68% of dollars, yet they’ve actually become bigger dogs as the week has played out.

The under has picked up 55% of bets accounting for 78% of dollars, and this total has been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride. Opening at 54, it fell down to 51 before being bet back up to its current number of 53.

Recency Bias Influencing This Line

By Ken Barkley

Let’s start with some straightforward analysis. Penn State has looked miserable in the two games since the close Ohio State loss — losing outright as a big favorite to Michigan State, and then failing to cover a two-touchdown number against Indiana. Its margin vs. the spread does not inspire confidence.

Meanwhile, you can’t make Iowa numbers big enough. In the Hawkeyes’ last three games, they’ve beaten the spread by 10, 22.5 and 13.5 points, respectively, in wins over Minnesota, Indiana and Maryland.

They have started getting buzz as a potential Big Ten title game participant, mostly because Wisconsin has looked so listless against better foes such as Michigan. If there were ever a week where opinions were stretched far in each direction for both schools, this is it, and now the number is saying that on a neutral field, Penn State is only a couple points better? I really disagree there, and I’ve been anti-Penn State the whole season, so that’s saying something.

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trace McSorley and Nate Stanley

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-8.5
58.5
-11
59
-15
51.5
-15
49
52
-18
52
-19.5
-13.5
68
-14
68
-2
80
-2.5
84
54
-3
49
-2.5
-3
59
-4.5
56
-3
53.5
-6
52
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
53.5
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-17
-17
51
-17.5
51
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13.5
47.5
-2
47.5
-3
-8
53.5
-10.5
54
44
-13.5
44
-11
68
-3
67.5
-2