Appalachian State vs. UL-Lafayette Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Sun Belt Championship Be Like October Slugfest?
Derick E. Hingle, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Levi Lewis
- Appalachian State is a 6.5-point favorite over UL-Lafayette in the latest 2019 Sun Belt Championship Game odds, with the total rising to 58.
- The Mountaineers won the first meeting between these two teams in October, a 17-7 slugfest where both offenses struggled to get going.
- Our experts give their App State vs. ULL picks, including a bet on the spread and moneyline.
Sun Belt Championship Odds: App State vs. UL-Lafayette
- Spread: Appalachian State -6.5
- Over/Under: 58
- Moneylines: App State -233, ULL +185
- Time: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Boone, N.C. (at App State)
Earlier this season, UL-Lafayette and Appalachian State played an unexpected slugfest — a 17-7 Mountaineers win that went under the total by 45 points.
Will things be different this time around?
App State hosts the Sun Belt Championship Game on Saturday, looking to win its second straight conference title game after defeating ULL in this same spot last season.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost all seven meetings between the two teams since App State joined the Sun Belt in 2014, all by double digits.
ULL does have some other history on its side, as underdogs in true road conference championship games are 14-5 ATS, including last year’s cover against the Mountaineers.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Line Movement
The story of this point spread has been a slightly confusing one, as the number has drifted in both directions, and not all books have moved in unison throughout the week.
App State has been the slightly more popular pick, drawing 56% of bettors, and has seen lines ranging from -3 to -7 over the past few days. The Mountaineers have now settled inside the full-touchdown number at -6/-6.5 as some heavy money hit the underdog soon after the +7 was reached. As it stands now, the 44% of bets landing on Louisiana have accounted for 61% of money.
The total has been much more straightforward, as it’s split the public and barely moved from its opener. Fifty-two percent of bets and 51% of money have landed on the under, and the number has inched up from 55.5 to 56 in most spots. — Danny Donahue
What Can the Last Meeting Between App State and ULL Tell Us?
The gambling wounds from the Oct. 9 meeting between these teams are still fresh.
A fantastic set of Sun Belt officials spotted App State countless fourth downs and pass interference flags from 30 yards away.
App State ran 19 plays on a 10-minute drive that ended with a game-sealing touchdown with 1:55 to play.
ULL hasn’t had the ball since the Obama administration
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 10, 2019
For two high flying offenses, the final score of 17-7 in Lafayette was rather anti-climatic. Neither Zac Thomas nor Levi Lewis threw for 150 yards, while neither rush attack produced a running back with a carry over 25 yards.
The closing points spread in October was ULL -2.5, essentially a pick game considering home field advantage.
The Action Network power ratings make this game Appalachian State -1.7 in this spot, but dead even on a neutral field. As I mentioned earlier this week, I will still be backing the Cajuns at +6 as the line is overinflated.
The pregame total in the last meeting was 69 and it fell well short, as the defenses took center stage.
This total deserves a similar look. Both teams are top 25 in defensive passing success rate, illustrated by Thomas and Lewis’s results in the first meeting.
ULL has a rank of 13th in defensive finishing drives and No. 9 in opponent red zone scoring. Appalachian State is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball with a rank of 35th in finishing drives and an opponent third down conversion rank of 10th.
This game should be as lackluster as the initial head-to-head meeting in scoring, especially if there is a 19-play drive to close it out. — Collin Wilson
Picks: Under 56, ULL +6
Collin Wilson is 482-404-23 (54.4%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
Stuckey: Little Between These Two Teams
I thought the line of ULL -1.5 at home was about right last time. I have these two teams rated pretty close, with a slight edge to App State. With this game in Boone, I think this line should be closer to -3 or -4 than -6, based on my numbers.
And, yes App State did win that game by 10 but ULL was right there the entire way. The Ragin’ Cajuns were stopped on a fourth-and-goal, dealt with a few questionable calls and made a few questionable coaching decisions late in the game.
App State did a tremendous job slowing down the machine-like ULL rushing attack that lead the nation with 6.6 yards per carry, but ULL should get its yardage on the ground behind a tremendous offensive line and break a few more explosive runs against a defense that has struggled in that department all year.
I’ve been higher on ULL than the market the past two seasons (and even during the preseason when I took a shot on the Cajuns to win the Belt at 13-1) and the market seemingly hasn’t caught up to head coach Billy Napier, who’s a cool 18-7 ATS (72%) in his young career, covering by almost a touchdown per game.
Also, don’t forget that App State will be without one of its most dynamic receivers in Connor Sutton (who had two catches for 58 yards in the first meeting). The Mountaineers are still deep at receiver but his presence will hurt in a matchup of two defenses that rank in the top 20 in pass efficiency.
I also think quarterback Levi Lewis can take a lot from last week against UL-Monroe, which was his best passing game of his career. He’s clearly improved as the season has progressed, and a few deep balls to keep the defense honest and a few third down conversions through the air could be the difference this time around.
This is impossible to predict, but don’t be surprised if you see some turnover regression from App State, which has only lost two fumbles all year (fewest in nation).
App State has owned this series, but this is too many points to give to a rock solid ULL team that continues to be a covering machine. And don’t forget about special teams, where the Ragin’ Cajuns should hold the edge. — Stuckey
Stuckey’s Pick: I played some ULL +6.5 and bought some to +7 and would still play it down to 6.
Stuckey is 519-478-29 (52.1%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.
Kyle Miller: More Points This Time Around
It’s been no secret that my favorite team in the nation is Louisiana. I’ve loved the Ragin’ Cajuns since the preseason for two reasons: their offensive line and run game.
Those preseason feelings have been proven correct thanks to top 5 rankings in rushing success rate, rushing explosiveness, and offensive line score. These guys aren’t just good for a Group of Five, they’re good for almost any Power 5 team.
These two teams met up in the middle of the season on a Wednesday night and Louisiana’s run game was shut down by Appalachian State. I don’t expect this rematch to go quite the same way. The Ragin’ Cajuns have been on an absolute roll since taking that loss, scoring no less that 31 points in their next six games.
I think this one will be very high scoring because while neither team uses tempo, they allow a ton of long running plays. Obviously that’s a huge strength of Louisiana’s offense but App State nearly equals them in that category. The offensive lines should have a great day and both teams will likely play a sound, clean game.
I make App State just a 3-point favorite in this game so I’m happy to take Louisiana at anything better than +6. In addition, the over has some nice value at 56 or better because both head coaches have offensive backgrounds and will look to atone for the 17-7 output that we saw in the first game. — Kyle Miller
Pick: Over 56
Kyle Miller is 231-198-12 (53.8%) overall betting on college football. You can follow him in our free app.