I'm looking at three Noon spots for Week 10.
The down-and-out SMU Mustangs are hosting the top-10 Miami Hurricanes. The mediocre West Virginia Mountaineers hit the road against the surprisingly 7-1 Houston Cougars. Air Force hosts Army in another exciting Service Academy game.
Read on for my Week 10 NCAAF Picks, and check out all of my Saturday spots here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | SMU +12.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | West Virginia +14 |
  | 12 p.m. | Air Force +1.5 |
SMU +12.5 vs. Miami
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
SMU has had a very disappointing season to date, especially in comparison to last year's magical run to the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs already have three losses — although they did hold fourth-quarter leads in each.
The offense looked awful last week at Wake Forest, but I do believe part of that had to do with the spot.
That game came in between a victory over Clemson and this Saturday's showdown with Miami. They just weren't ready to play a noon kick against a feisty Demon Deacon bunch coming off a bye.
After having their 20-game conference win streak end, I expect a much sharper effort. After all, they still remain in the thick of the ACC race with a 3-1 league record.
From a matchup perspective, Miami likely won't have much success running the ball on an elite SMU front that has allowed a minuscule 2.7 yards per attempt.
That will put the onus on Carson Beck, who has historically struggled mightily on the road and when under pressure — both of which could become an issue against this SMU defense that thrives in the Havoc department.
Beck is usually kept clean behind his elite pass-protecting offensive line, but Louisville's similarly elite defensive line bothered him enough to throw four interceptions.
Over the past three seasons, Beck has had only nine Big-Time Throws to 20 Turnover-Worthy Plays when under pressure. Last year at Georgia, he threw for 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions at home compared to a 3:7 ratio on the road, while averaging two yards fewer per attempt and double the sack rate.
Additionally, there's a chance Miami is a bit overrated in the market due to how its schedule has played out so far. It benefited from seeing CJ Carr in his first-ever start (on the road) with a Notre Dame defense that had yet to find its way.
It also faced South Florida in one of the best situational spots of the year, while Florida was an absolute mess at the time (with a banged-up DJ Lagway). This will also mark the first time all year that the Hurricanes leave their home state.
So, what are my concerns? The SMU pass defense has been a bit vulnerable in coverage, and Malachi Toney is capable of exploiting it whenever he touches the ball.
Although the Mustangs should get a few defensive reinforcements (including two key starters) back in the lineup this week, they've also been vulnerable against quarterback scrambles, which isn't a worry against Beck.
Additionally, Kevin Jennings also really struggles under pressure, which could become an issue against the menacing Miami defensive end duo of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain, especially since the Mustangs have only one reliable tackle in pass protection.
Jennings will need to be much sharper than he was last week.
SMU doesn't really try to run the ball, which actually works in its favor in this particular matchup since the Hurricanes feature one of the nation's best run-stopping units.
While the secondary is exponentially better than last year's group, that's still Miami's weak link defensively. If Jennings is on, SMU can take advantage. If not, it will lead to too many quick three-and-outs that could eventually become too much to overcome.
It's interesting to note that, when adjusted for home-field advantage and opponent, these two teams rank very similarly on an Adjusted EPA Per Play basis.
With that said, I thought the opening line of around 10 was pretty fair, so I was happy to jump in after the early move pushed this out to 12.5.
I think this is a great opportunity to buy low on the Mustangs against a Miami team that has historically come out flat in these spots under head coach Mario Cristobal.
And I do expect this staff (with countless ties to Miami) to have a very good opening script that could catch Miami off guard, as we saw against Louisville.
Pick: SMU +11.5 or Better
West Virginia +14 at Houston
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is the hold-your-nose special of the week.
I came into the season with high hopes for Houston, in large part because I trusted Willie Fritz, whom I hate fading.
He's certainly done what he usually does as a program-builder and has the Cougars ahead of schedule at 7-1 to start the season and in the thick of the Big 12 title race.
With that said, we may have hit the peak of the market on the Cougars, who really should have lost earlier this season at lowly Oregon State and benefited from playing an extremely shorthanded Arizona State team last week in Tempe. They also got to face Colorado when the Buffaloes inexplicably started their backup quarterback.
They've benefited from an easy schedule with several built-in breaks.
Conversely, West Virginia has played one of the 20 most difficult schedules in the nation to date. All six of its FBS opponents are likely headed for a bowl appearance, while only three of Houston's seven will likely make a postseason appearance.
I think the Mountaineers are a bit undervalued after dealing with so many injuries throughout the season, while basically fielding a brand-new team with an entirely new staff.
They've used four different quarterbacks and are now down to true freshman Scotty Fox, who I thought played extremely well last week against TCU after head coach Rich Rodriguez made some tweaks to the offense and offensive line. Fox finished that game 28-of-41 passing for 301 yards, along with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a six-point loss in which the 'Eeers finished with only one fewer net yard.
While it's hard to predict what we'll get from Fox (who went 6-for-17 at UCF) again, I believe the offense can carry that momentum over into this weekend.
So, what are my concerns?
Well, besides betting against Fritz, West Virginia has been dreadful on the road, and this is a noon kick with travel and a true freshman quarterback. That's certainly not ideal, especially if things go haywire for an offense that likes to use tempo.
Like most Fritz teams, the Cougars want to establish the ground game, but they're not very efficient at it. Plus, West Virginia's run defense has been a strong suit so far this season.
The pass defense does give up too many explosives in Zac Alley's aggressive scheme, which could be problematic against a Houston offense that has surprisingly thrived in that department under transfer starting quarterback Conner Weigman. Alley will undoubtedly bring the blitz on obvious passing situations, which has caused Weigman issues in the past. Hopefully, the negative plays outweigh the explosives.
Plus, Houston doesn't profile as a very scary large favorite and may come out a bit lethargic for an 11 a.m. local kick against a winless Big 12 team following its huge upset win over the Sun Devils.
I'm OK selling high in this spot, but it's undoubtedly a bit spooky trusting this West Virginia team on Halloween weekend.
Pick: West Virginia +14 or Better
Air Force +1.5 vs. Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Air Force is a hilarious team to chart.
From an Adjusted EPA Per Play perspective, the Falcons have the best Group of 5 offense in the country. Unfortunately, they also have the worst defense in the country due to an extremely slow-footed back end that frequently looks like a bad FCS outfit.
However, this is a game where the defense can actually hold its own against a similar offensive scheme it practices against daily.
The familiarity on both sides is through the roof, which is why these matchups between service academies have been a cash cow over the past two decades.
Because of that familiarity, both defenses will likely make frequent stops on early downs, despite each ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in yards before contact.
That will set up some key third-and-long situations where I trust the explosive Air Force offense exponentially more against an Army defense that can't generate pressure and struggles in coverage.
On the season, the Airmen rank sixth in the country in third-and-long conversion rate (seven-plus yards), while Army has performed below the national average in those down and distances at 27%.
I honestly believe that will prove to be the difference for an Air Force team that went on a tear in the second half of last season in a similar situation with a brand-new team and quarterback.
You have to handicap these service academy matchups completely differently than regular FBS games.
From a numbers perspective, I could see how someone might fancy the Black Knights. Still, I genuinely believe the Air Force defense can actually look a bit competent against a run-heavy Army attack that doesn't force many missed tackles nor get much after the catch.
Plus, the Falcons boast a clearly superior offense that should fare better in those inevitable, more challenging third-and-medium-to-third-and-long situations.
Fourth downs will undoubtedly play a role in this outcome, so hopefully, we're on the good side of those swings.
Pick: Air Force -1 or Better
