Week 12 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads

Week 12 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image

Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Cincinnati Bearcats.

Week 12 College Football Bowl Projections

With only two more full weeks remaining in the regular season before conference championship weekend on Dec. 3-4, which teams will and won’t go bowling is becoming clearer.

There are now 55 bowl-eligible teams (82 bowl teams are needed) with 27 teams mathematically unable to reach six wins. The remaining 48 FBS teams are still alive to reach bowl eligibility. For this week, I’m projecting having to use two 5-7 teams since there won’t be enough six-win teams available.

The College Football Playoff pairings will be announced on Dec. 5, along with the remaining bowl lineups.

My bowl projections this week are based on Georgia winning the SEC, Ohio State winning the Big Ten, undefeated Cincinnati winning the American, while the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions will each have at least two losses (the ACC will need a lot of help to get a playoff berth).

That’s how I ended up with Georgia vs. Cincinnati in one semifinal and Ohio State vs. two-loss Alabama in the other semifinal.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2021 College Football Betting Power Ratings

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

college football playoff-cfp-national championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama

Action Spread: Georgia -5

College Football Playoff Semifinals

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Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati

Action Spread: Georgia -18.5

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Alabama

Action Spread: Alabama -1.5

New Year's Six Bowls

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Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Oklahoma State -0.5

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Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: Michigan vs. Oregon

Action Spread: Michigan -2.5

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PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame*

Action Spread: Pick'em

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Michigan State vs. Wake Forest

Action Spread: Michigan State -1

Other Bowls

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Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Iowa State vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Iowa State -2

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Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -1.5

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Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Penn State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Penn State -4.5

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Kent State vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Fresno State -13

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TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -3

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Miami vs. UCLA

Action Spread: UCLA -1.5

college football-music city bowl

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Minnesota vs. Tennessee

Action Spread: Tennessee -4.5

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Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: North Carolina vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Arkansas -0.5

college football-las vegas bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Iowa vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Arizona State -3.5

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college football-alamo bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Baylor vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -3

college football-cheez it bowl

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Pitt vs. Kansas State

Action Spread: Pitt -5.5

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Virginia vs. Purdue

Action Spread: Purdue -1

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Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Louisville vs. SMU

Action Spread: SMU -1

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SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: NC State vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: NC State -4

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Rutgers vs. West Virginia

Action Spread: West Virginia -9

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Texas Tech vs. Florida

Action Spread: Florida -3.5

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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Army vs. Toledo

Action Spread: Army -1.5

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: Air Force vs. UAB

Action Spread: Air Force -1

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Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Boston College vs. Houston

Action Spread: Houston -2

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Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Maryland vs. Northern Illinois

Action Spread: Maryland -8

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Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Louisiana vs. Central Michigan

Action Spread: Louisiana -9

college football-hawaii bowl

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Nevada vs. UCF

Action Spread: UCF -2.5

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Memphis vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -7

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. TCU

Action Spread: TCU -14.5

college football-frisco bowl

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Utah State vs. Western Michigan

Action Spread: Western Michigan -1.5

college football-famous idaho-potato bowl-boise

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Action Spread: Boise State -11.5

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Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -6

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -5

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Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: Washington State vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: Pick'em

college football-independence bowl

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: BYU vs. UTSA

Action Spread: BYU -2

college football-lendingtree bowl

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: Troy vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Troy -7

college football-new mexico bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: Wyoming vs. UTEP

Action Spread: Wyoming -10

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RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Marshall

Action Spread: Virginia Tech -1.5

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Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Charlotte vs. Georgia State

Action Spread: Georgia State -11.5

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Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Miami (OH)

Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -1.5

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

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