Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads

Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections

It’s been an unprecedented time for the Sun Belt. Just last week, the league enjoyed the best week in conference history with two road wins over top-10 opponents and a first-ever visit by College GameDay at Appalachian State.

Recently, the league received even more good news. Because the Sun Belt added four new schools this season and Conference USA lost three members, the Sun Belt will receive an additional bowl tie-in this year, sources told Action Network.

The Sun Belt, now with 14 members, could get six bids, instead of five, while C-USA, now down to 11 members, will drop from seven bowl bids to six, sources said. These bowl tie-ins do not include if either conference earns the Group of Five's New Year’s Six bowl bid.

With the Sun Belt’s additional bowl tie-in, here’s how the 84 bowl bids will be divided by conference (if each league has the required number of bowl-eligible teams to fill those bowls). These would be the minimum number of bowl bids by conference:

• SEC, 10
• ACC/Notre Dame, 10
• Big Ten, 9
• Pac-12, 8
• Big 12, 7
• AAC, 7
• C-USA, 6
• MAC, 6
• Mountain West, 6
• Sun Belt, 6.

That’s 75 bowl bids guaranteed for the 10 conferences.

Add in the four playoff spots, a New Year’s Six at-large spot, an Orange Bowl berth for either the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame, plus the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid, and that’s 82 total bids.

The final two? BYU and Army are guaranteed a bowl bid by ESPN to fill out the 84-team dance card.

Now that you know how the sausage is made, onto the sausage (this week’s projections). As always, each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

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CFP National Championship Prediction

• CFP National Championship

  Monday, Jan. 9

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Georgia

  PK

  Alabama

  PK

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Atlanta, GA

  Georgia

  -9

  Michigan
• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Glendale, AZ

  Ohio State

  -1

  Alabama

New Year's Six Bowl Games

• Rose Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Pasadena, CA

  USC

  Penn State

  -2
• Goodyear Cotton Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Arlington, TX

  Oklahoma

  -15

  Appalachian State

• Allstate Sugar Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Oklahoma State

  -2

  Kentucky
• Capital One Orange Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Miami, FL

  Clemson

  -3.5

  Tennessee

Projections for All Other Bowls

• Citrus Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Minnesota

  Arkansas

  -3
• ReliaQuest Bowl

  Monday, Jan. 2

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Texas A&M

  -3

  Wisconsin
• Music City Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 31

  ⋅

  Nashville, TN

  Maryland

  Florida

  -1.5

• Arizona Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Tucson, AZ

  Eastern Michigan

  Fresno State

  -9
• TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Jacksonville, FL

  North Carolina

  LSU

  -5.5
• Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  El Paso, TX

  Miami

  -8

  Oregon State

• Duke's Mayo Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 30

  ⋅

  Charlotte, NC

  NC State

  -1

  Michigan State
• Valero Alamo Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  San Antonio, TX

  Baylor

  Utah

  -2.5
• Cheez-It Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Notre Dame

  Texas

  -5

• Pinstripe Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 29

  ⋅

  Bronx, NY

  Pittsburgh

  -6

  Iowa
• TaxAct Texas Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Houston, TX

  TCU

  PK

  Mississippi State

  PK
• Holiday Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  San Diego, CA

  Florida State

  -2.5

  Washington

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Memphis, TN

  Iowa State

  -1

  Auburn
• Military Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 28

  ⋅

  Annapolis, MD

  Wake Forest

  -2

  UCF
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Phoenix, AZ

  Illinois

  -1

  Kansas

• Camellia Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Montgomery, AL

  Troy

  Toledo

  -1
• Birmingham Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Birmingham, AL

  Virginia Tech

  BYU

  -7.5
• First Responder Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 27

  ⋅

  Dallas, TX

  Arizona

  Louisville

  -9.5

• Quick Lane Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 26

  ⋅

  Detroit, MI

  Rutgers

  -5

  Central Michigan
• EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 24

  ⋅

  Honolulu, HI

  San Jose State

  -1

  UTSA
• Gasparilla Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Tampa, FL

  Duke

  Purdue

  -12.5

• Independence Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 23

  ⋅

  Shreveport, LA

  Army

  Tulane

  -6.5
• Armed Forces Bowl

  Thursday, Dec. 22

  ⋅

  Fort Worth, TX

  Kansas State

  SMU

  -2
• New Orleans Bowl

  Wednesday, Dec. 21

  ⋅

  New Orleans, LA

  Western Kentucky

  Marshall

  -4

• Boca Raton Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boca Raton, FL

  Houston

  -4.5

  UAB
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  Tuesday, Dec. 20

  ⋅

  Boise, ID

  Miami (OH)

  Air Force

  -14.5
• Myrtle Beach Bowl

  Monday, Dec. 19

  ⋅

  Conway, SC

  Coastal Carolina

  East Carolina

  -8

• Frisco Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Frisco, TX

  Indiana

  UCLA

  -11
• Las Vegas Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Las Vegas, NV

  Ole Miss

  PK

  Oregon

  PK
• LendingTree Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Mobile, AL

  Georgia Southern

  Liberty

  -5.5

• Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Los Angeles, CA

  Washington State

  PK

  Boise State

  PK
• New Mexico Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Albuquerque, NM

  UNLV

  -7.5

  Rice
• Wasabi Fenway Bowl

  Saturday, Dec. 17

  ⋅

  Boston, MA

  Syracuse

  Cincinnati

  -7.5

• Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Orlando, FL

  Louisiana

  -4.5

  Western Michigan
• Bahamas Bowl

  Friday, Dec. 16

  ⋅

  Nassau, Bahamas

  Florida Atlantic

  Northern Illinois

  -2
• TBA Bowl**

  TBD

  ⋅

  TBD

  Wyoming

  Old Dominion

  -3

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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