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Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads

Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads article feature image
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Donald Page/Getty Images. Pictured: The Tennessee Volunteers.

Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections

It’s been an unprecedented time for the Sun Belt. Just last week, the league enjoyed the best week in conference history with two road wins over top-10 opponents and a first-ever visit by College GameDay at Appalachian State.

Recently, the league received even more good news. Because the Sun Belt added four new schools this season and Conference USA lost three members, the Sun Belt will receive an additional bowl tie-in this year, sources told Action Network.

The Sun Belt, now with 14 members, could get six bids, instead of five, while C-USA, now down to 11 members, will drop from seven bowl bids to six, sources said. These bowl tie-ins do not include if either conference earns the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl bid.

With the Sun Belt’s additional bowl tie-in, here’s how the 84 bowl bids will be divided by conference (if each league has the required number of bowl-eligible teams to fill those bowls). These would be the minimum number of bowl bids by conference:

  • SEC, 10
  • ACC/Notre Dame, 10
  • Big Ten, 9
  • Pac-12, 8
  • Big 12, 7
  • AAC, 7
  • C-USA, 6
  • MAC, 6
  • Mountain West, 6
  • Sun Belt, 6.

That’s 75 bowl bids guaranteed for the 10 conferences.

Add in the four playoff spots, a New Year’s Six at-large spot, an Orange Bowl berth for either the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame, plus the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid, and that’s 82 total bids.

The final two? BYU and Army are guaranteed a bowl bid by ESPN to fill out the 84-team dance card.

Now that you know how the sausage is made, onto the sausage (this week’s projections). As always, each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

  • CFP National Championship

    Monday, Jan. 9
    Los Angeles, CA

    Georgia

    PK

    Alabama

    PK

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Atlanta, GA

    Georgia

    -9

    Michigan

  • Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Glendale, AZ

    Ohio State

    -1

    Alabama


New Year’s Six Bowl Games

  • Rose Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Pasadena, CA

    USC

    Penn State

    -2
  • Goodyear Cotton Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Arlington, TX

    Oklahoma

    -15

    Appalachian State

  • Allstate Sugar Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    New Orleans, LA

    Oklahoma State

    -2

    Kentucky

  • Capital One Orange Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Miami, FL

    Clemson

    -3.5

    Tennessee


Projections for All Other Bowls

  • Citrus Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Orlando, FL

    Minnesota

    Arkansas

    -3
  • ReliaQuest Bowl

    Monday, Jan. 2
    Tampa, FL

    Texas A&M

    -3

    Wisconsin

  • Music City Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 31
    Nashville, TN

    Maryland

    Florida

    -1.5
  • Arizona Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Tucson, AZ

    Eastern Michigan

    Fresno State

    -9
  • TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Jacksonville, FL

    North Carolina

    LSU

    -5.5
  • Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    El Paso, TX

    Miami

    -8

    Oregon State

  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 30
    Charlotte, NC

    NC State

    -1

    Michigan State

  • Valero Alamo Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    San Antonio, TX

    Baylor

    Utah

    -2.5
  • Cheez-It Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Orlando, FL

    Notre Dame

    Texas

    -5
  • Pinstripe Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 29
    Bronx, NY

    Pittsburgh

    -6

    Iowa

  • TaxAct Texas Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Houston, TX

    TCU

    PK

    Mississippi State

    PK
  • Holiday Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    San Diego, CA

    Florida State

    -2.5

    Washington

  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Memphis, TN

    Iowa State

    -1

    Auburn

  • Military Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 28
    Annapolis, MD

    Wake Forest

    -2

    UCF

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Phoenix, AZ

    Illinois

    -1

    Kansas

  • Camellia Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Montgomery, AL

    Troy

    Toledo

    -1
  • Birmingham Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Birmingham, AL

    Virginia Tech

    BYU

    -7.5
  • First Responder Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 27
    Dallas, TX

    Arizona

    Louisville

    -9.5
  • Quick Lane Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 26
    Detroit, MI

    Rutgers

    -5

    Central Michigan

  • EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 24
    Honolulu, HI

    San Jose State

    -1

    UTSA

  • Gasparilla Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Tampa, FL

    Duke

    Purdue

    -12.5
  • Independence Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 23
    Shreveport, LA

    Army

    Tulane

    -6.5
  • Armed Forces Bowl

    Thursday, Dec. 22
    Fort Worth, TX

    Kansas State

    SMU

    -2
  • New Orleans Bowl

    Wednesday, Dec. 21
    New Orleans, LA

    Western Kentucky

    Marshall

    -4
  • Boca Raton Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boca Raton, FL

    Houston

    -4.5

    UAB

  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

    Tuesday, Dec. 20
    Boise, ID

    Miami (OH)

    Air Force

    -14.5
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl

    Monday, Dec. 19
    Conway, SC

    Coastal Carolina

    East Carolina

    -8
  • Frisco Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Frisco, TX

    Indiana

    UCLA

    -11
  • Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Las Vegas, NV

    Ole Miss

    PK

    Oregon

    PK
  • LendingTree Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Mobile, AL

    Georgia Southern

    Liberty

    -5.5
  • Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Los Angeles, CA

    Washington State

    PK

    Boise State

    PK
  • New Mexico Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Albuquerque, NM

    UNLV

    -7.5

    Rice

  • Wasabi Fenway Bowl

    Saturday, Dec. 17
    Boston, MA

    Syracuse

    Cincinnati

    -7.5
  • Duluth Trading Cure Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Orlando, FL

    Louisiana

    -4.5

    Western Michigan

  • Bahamas Bowl

    Friday, Dec. 16
    Nassau, Bahamas

    Florida Atlantic

    Northern Illinois

    -2
  • TBA Bowl**

    TBD
    TBD

    Wyoming

    Old Dominion

    -3

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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