You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
To keep the chalk talk rolling this week, we're backing two home favorites — one in a top-15 SEC clash and one in a Big Ten rivalry game where the winner gets a 98-pound bronze pig.
Let's dive into our Week 9 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma and Minnesota vs. Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 25.
Week 9 College Football Predictions, Picks
Stuckey: Oklahoma -5.5 vs. Ole Miss
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
I like Oklahoma in this matchup.
I’m not buying what Ole Miss’ offensive line is selling. The Oklahoma defensive front looks like it’s going to dominate, pressure Trinidad Chambliss and force some mistakes.
On the flip side, the Rebels defense doesn’t really inspire confidence either. They play a style where they try to prevent big plays, forcing teams to drive methodically down the field. Well, that’s exactly Oklahoma’s strong suit.
Now, I’m a little lower on Ole Miss than most folks. It's sitting just a bit under a touchdown in the market, and I’m on the same page.
But there are two big questions for me here.
First: Ole Miss has one of the worst run defenses in the country, but Oklahoma’s run game hasn’t been great either. So, which side wins that battle? If Oklahoma can get its ground game rolling, I think it wins this comfortably.
Second: Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the nation. It's well-schemed, very cohesive, and its front is a real weapon. My only slight concern is the secondary — the cornerbacks, specifically.
But the real question is, how will this group hold up against elite passing teams? So far, it's faced offenses with weak lines and shaky passing. Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn, Kent State, Texas and South Carolina aren't exactly top-tier passing attacks.
So, it’s hard to say how the secondary will perform against a more dynamic aerial assault.
We’re going to learn a lot about Oklahoma’s secondary in the next couple of weeks against Tennessee and Alabama. But based on what I see right now, I’m going with the Sooners. I think their defense wears down Ole Miss in the end.
Collin Wilson: Iowa -9 vs. Minnesota
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
I’m taking Iowa to hold onto Floyd of Rosedale here. I project this at Hawkeyes -11, and the number just isn't there.
Minnesota beat Purdue earlier this year but only had a 25% post-game win expectancy. That's not an impressive win.
Nebraska, meanwhile, completely no-showed when it faced the Gophers in a 24-6 loss, racking up just 27% of available yards. When the national average for available yards is 44%, picking up only 27% is pretty bad.
That was entirely on Nebraska averaging under four yards per play, not Minnesota’s defense.
I’m not sure if there are distractions in the locker room with Matt Rhule’s potential next job or what, but the Huskers just didn’t show up.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, which isn't a good recipe against an Iowa run game that's really hitting its stride with Kamari Moulton and Mark Gronowski.
The Golden Gophers also sit bottom-15 in both Rush and Pass EPA, while Iowa is top-10 when it comes to quality drives allowed. The Hawkeyes' run game is humming right now, and they should keep rolling here.
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