College football Week 9 is upon us, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of Five experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Florida Atlantic vs. Navy and Temple vs. Tulsa.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at over 16-1.
Let's take a look at our NCAAF picks and college football predictions in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 9.
Florida Atlantic +500 vs. Navy
| FAU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
This is my biggest swing of the season.
Navy is going to move the ball on the ground. There’s just no stopping their rushing attack. I'd expect it to average seven or eight yards per carry this game.
But here’s where things get interesting: Close games and turnovers have been a bugaboo for Navy.
The Midshipmen beat Rice by eight points, which isn’t that impressive because the Owls aren't very good. They edged Air Force by three points, but the Falcons essentially have no defense. Then there was a one-point win over Temple. The combined record of those teams is 8-11 straight up.
And all three struggle mightily to stop the run, ranking outside the top 100. So, FAU’s poor run defense isn’t exactly a dealbreaker here.
Now, turnovers are the real crux. Navy has lost five turnover battles this season in six games, but it has fumbled nine times and only lost two. That’s an absurd 78% recovery rate, so the Mids been incredibly lucky.
On the flip side, FAU sits dead last in the entire country in turnover margin. Regression has to come at some point.
If FAU does flip the turnover script and ends up even or plus in that department, it has the firepower to expose Navy’s secondary. The Owls throw it constantly, ranking fourth in the nation in passing yards per game, and they attempt the most passes per game in the country.
The Midshipmen rank 117th in coverage, 114th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 126th in passes defended. They’re just not getting their hands on the ball or closing on receivers.
Temple quarterback Evan Simon went 25-for-36 for 345 yards and a touchdown against Navy and was sacked only once. Same story with UAB's Jalen Kitna, who went 22-for-32, 304 yards, two touchdowns and two picks.
Navy basically sends three- or four-man rushes and never gets home.
I think FAU QB Caden Veltkamp can stand tall in the pocket and pick these guys apart.
Looking ahead, Navy also has some tough games on deck in North Texas, Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis. If it goes 3-1 and wins the American Conference title, it's probably in the playoff picture.
So, as an undefeated team, I bet Navy is already looking past FAU a bit. Service academies usually run a tight ship, waking up at the crack of dawn and moving disciplined from station to station, but this feels like a classic look-ahead spot.
I’ve seen crazier upsets than this, given the holes in Navy’s defense and how close those games have been. That undefeated 6-0 record might be glossing over some cracks.
I’m taking a big swing at 5-1. Head coach Zach Kittley and the Owls have been underwhelming at times, but they’ve flashed some life intermittently. I think they pull it all together here, catch a break or two, and pull off the upset.
I’d play it anywhere north of +350 without hesitation.
Tulsa +200 vs. Temple
| Temple Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +185 |
By Joshua Nunn
I make this game closer to a pick'em. This line suggests that Temple would be favored by nine on a neutral field, but I’m not buying that.
Sure, Temple has been better than expected this year, knocking off UTSA recently and giving Navy a serious challenge. But remember, the Golden Hurricane have dealt with a brutal conference schedule, including Navy, Tulane, Memphis and East Carolina.
Tulsa’s defense stands out, especially its coverage unit, which ranks second-best in the American Conference, according to PFF.
The pass rush isn’t far behind, coming in third. They’ve put consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so I don't expect Evan Simon and Temple’s passing game to feel it this week.
Tulsa has tallied 16 sacks and 38 tackles for loss this season. Now, its numbers look rough in some areas, but again, that’s partly because it has faced some of the league’s toughest offenses.
The Golden Hurricane have been solid on early downs, ranking eighth in EPA Per Rush allowed and 15th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. This defense should hold up pretty well at home.
Offensively, I like what Tulsa can do. Temple has been giving up around five yards per carry and has gotten gashed in four of its last five games.
Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes is starting to piece together his passing game, but the real key for the Golden Hurricane might be wide receiver Zion Steptoe. He's a slot weapon who's a total difference-maker once he has space to operate.
If Tulsa can find a rhythm getting him the ball, its offense should look a lot cleaner.
I think the Golden Hurricane are going to look more like themselves this week on their home turf, and they absolutely have a shot to win this outright.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 9
- Florida Atlantic ML +500 vs. Navy
- Tulsa ML +200 vs. Temple
Parlay Odds: +1610 (bet365)
