Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds: Are Sharps Behind the Falling Line?

Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds: Are Sharps Behind the Falling Line? article feature image

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Antjuan Simmons and Connor Heyward

  • The point spread for Saturday's Western Michigan vs. Michigan State matchup (7 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network) is still on the move.
  • The Action Network's tools reveal whether sharp money is contributing to the line fall.

You might think that after a full week of availability, lines for Saturday night’s games would’ve found settling point by now.


Spreads and totals are still on the move for the remaining Saturday matchups, and probably will be until kickoff. Among the games seeing the most significant late changes: Western Michigan at Michigan State.

Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Market Report

Sparty opened as a 17.5-point favorite over its MAC neighbor, and while 17 isn’t on the level as say, 3 or 7, it’s still an important number in football betting. So when this line moved through the key number down to 16.5 earlier this week it was pretty clear that there was some sharp action at play.

A Sports Insights Bet Signal in the form of a steam move — a sign of sharp action referring to heavy, sudden money on the same side causing a line change — confirmed the professional activity.

From that point, the line continued to drift downward, though not as consistently across the market. Western Michigan has generated 65% of money being wagered despite an evenly split bet count, which could explain why some books — perhaps the ones with larger liabilities — were moving more than others.

Generally, a higher money than bet percentage is a sign of sharp action as well, but there were no SI Bet Signals to confirm that … until this afternoon.

Still finding a few books hanging a +16.5, sharps came down hard on the Broncos, triggering another steam move and getting the market-wide consensus down to +15. Some shops have even fallen to +14.5, just a half-point off the even-more-important two-touchdown margin.

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