Wilson: Updated Havoc Ratings And 3 Mismatches I’m Betting in Week 13


Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Burrell

Nov 23, 2019, 03:30 AM EST
  • Collin Wilson uses his havoc ratings to identify teams that can cause volatility and lead to betting value.
  • Havoc is defined as the rate at which a defense creates disruptive plays -- tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended. The same measure can be used to see how good an offense is at protecting the ball.
  • Collin updates his havoc ratings below and identifies three games he's betting because of havoc mismatches.

Bad beats have taken center stage in the college football and NFL worlds over the past couple of weeks. If you held an Arizona Cardinals or Colorado State ticket this past weekend, chaos determined the final outcome.

A tackle for loss, interception and forced fumble are just some of the categories in the stat we call Havoc. Baylor’s hope for a comeback on Oklahoma was dashed by a Sooners interception. Scoop n’ Scores and Pick 6’s can certainly alter your mood.

Of the College Football Playoff title contenders, Ohio State and Clemson rank in the top 5 in defensive havoc. Both the Buckeyes and Tigers have an astounding 90-plus tackles for loss. Utah is No. 7 in our rankings, but is led by 59 passes defensed. LSU comes in a surprising 17th, but Georgia at 41st may be the most disappointing in the country. The Bulldogs are a top ranked team in defensive efficiency, but are quite vanilla in takeaways.

Our havoc ratings have long pointed out that you want to bet on teams that have built an identity around causing chaos on defense and protecting the ball on offense. Only a small number of teams rank in the top 25 in both havoc and havoc allowed.

Those teams include Clemson, Oregon, SMU and Iowa State.

With that out of the way, let’s dive into this week’s Havoc Ratings.

For defenses, havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pass breakups and interceptions. It can take a defense from good to great.

For offenses, havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital.

All odds below as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but these havoc statistics for both offense and defense will be used to pinpoint the more volatile teams as a means of unlocking additional betting value.

College Football Week 13 Havoc Rankings

PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.

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