Wilson: Updated Havoc Ratings And 3 Mismatches I’m Betting in Week 13
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Burrell
- Collin Wilson uses his havoc ratings to identify teams that can cause volatility and lead to betting value.
- Havoc is defined as the rate at which a defense creates disruptive plays -- tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended. The same measure can be used to see how good an offense is at protecting the ball.
- Collin updates his havoc ratings below and identifies three games he's betting because of havoc mismatches.
Bad beats have taken center stage in the college football and NFL worlds over the past couple of weeks. If you held an Arizona Cardinals or Colorado State ticket this past weekend, chaos determined the final outcome.
A tackle for loss, interception and forced fumble are just some of the categories in the stat we call Havoc. Baylor’s hope for a comeback on Oklahoma was dashed by a Sooners interception. Scoop n’ Scores and Pick 6’s can certainly alter your mood.
Of the College Football Playoff title contenders, Ohio State and Clemson rank in the top 5 in defensive havoc. Both the Buckeyes and Tigers have an astounding 90-plus tackles for loss. Utah is No. 7 in our rankings, but is led by 59 passes defensed. LSU comes in a surprising 17th, but Georgia at 41st may be the most disappointing in the country. The Bulldogs are a top ranked team in defensive efficiency, but are quite vanilla in takeaways.
Our havoc ratings have long pointed out that you want to bet on teams that have built an identity around causing chaos on defense and protecting the ball on offense. Only a small number of teams rank in the top 25 in both havoc and havoc allowed.
Those teams include Clemson, Oregon, SMU and Iowa State.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into this week’s Havoc Ratings.
For defenses, havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles, pass breakups and interceptions. It can take a defense from good to great.
For offenses, havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital.
All odds below as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but these havoc statistics for both offense and defense will be used to pinpoint the more volatile teams as a means of unlocking additional betting value.
College Football Week 13 Havoc Rankings
PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.
Utah at Arizona (+21)
The Utes are on a mission to get national attention on their path to the Pac 12 Championship game. Final dates with Arizona and Colorado should give Utah plenty of chances to make Havoc highlight reels. The Utes are 7th in defensive havoc taking on an Arizona offense that is 90th in havoc allowed.
Stats provided by CollegeFootballData, Football Outsiders and SP+
Up and down the board it is hard to make a case for Arizona. The Wildcats are 121st in opponent third down conversions and 126th in opponent red zone scoring percentage. If the Utes want national attention, a steady dose of havoc and offensive success rate should get the job done.
Pick: Utah -21 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Purdue at Wisconsin (+23)
Jeff Brohm’s second season has not been easy at Purdue. After beating Ohio State and reaching the Music City Bowl last year, the Boilermakers started the season with one of the lowest returning production ranks.
Purdue has suffered injuries to a stable of playmakers including wide receiver Rondale Moore and quarterback Elijah Sindelar. Further injury to the second and third string quarterback has led to walk-on Aidan O’Connell under center.
The offense has had 17 fumbles and 13 interceptions, leading to a rank of 109th in havoc allowed.
When handicapping Wisconsin games it is imperative to gauge the opponents rush defense. Purdue is 89th in opponent rushing success rate and just inside the top 100 in opportunity and power success rate.
This number is already inflated past the projected from the Action Network Power Ratings as the Badgers have lookahead to a showdown with Minnesota. Purdue will be playing for its postseason life, but expect the Wisconsin havoc and rushing attack to be too much in Week 13.
Pick: Wisconsin -23 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Memphis at South Florida (+14.5)
Havoc numbers are usually better for the better teams.
But in rare cases, a double-digit underdog may have the upper hand in causing disruption.
Memphis is in the driver’s seat heading into the final two weeks, as a victory over South Florida and Cincinnati will secure home field in for the AAC Championship Game.
Meanwhile, South Florida hit a single field goal in five attempts during a loss to Cincinnati. A fumble return touchdown for Temple was the difference the week before.
Despite the 4-6 record, the Bulls have been playing much better since a bye week that included a new quarterback and offensive philosophy. Those results have seen a positive increase in offensive Line Yards and Power Success rate behind quarterback Jordan McCloud.
Defensively, South Florida is 20th in the nation in havoc, an indicator that Memphis may have a couple of interceptions or chaos in their offensive backfield. That should be enough to get them a cover.
Pick: South Florida +14.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]