Koerner’s Tiers Report Card: Grading My 2019 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Steven King/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Chris Carson, Russell Wilson
Part of the process of ensuring accurate fantasy football projections is to regularly back-test. By looking at previous forecasts you can gain insights as to what you got right and what you got wrong — far too many people just move on to the next week or the next season without having an honest recap of how their predictions fared.
So with that in mind, I’ve taken a look back at my 2019 fantasy football draft tiers and graded each based on the advice given and how it compared to the eventual results.
Now let’s recap what we learned from 2019 drafts and how we can apply those lessons in 2020.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Drafting Mahomes as the first quarterback off the board didn’t quite pan out.
For starters, Lamar Jackson passed Mahomes as the QB1 in fantasy. He also missed two and a half games due to injury, which hurt his overall numbers. Of course there’s a chance we’ll see Mahomes’ 50-touchdown potential return in 2020, so there could be value drafting him as the second overall QB, but I also think we’ll find that waiting at QB will again be a winning strategy.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
I was dead-on with Watson here.
His end-of-season rank as the QB4 is a bit misleading given he sat out Week 17 as the Texans had clinched their division — he posted the second-highest points per game (behind Jackson) on the season and established himself as part of the elite QB1 Tier.
Next season Watson will likely be the QB3 and will again be hard to pass up in Rounds 5-6.