Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is probably (read: definitely) the greatest of all time, but the public is lining up to bet against him in the Super Bowl. Even though the Pats opened as -6.0 favorites, the spread has been bet to -4.0. The public normally prefers favorites, especially the Pats, but 57 percent of the spread and 68 percent of the moneyline tickets are on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Some smart people, though, are backing the Patriots. For instance, on the most recent episode of The Three Donkeys Podcast, Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), and Adam Levitan all said they like the Pats. What could go wrong when three self-proclaimed donks all like the same team?

One reason people like the Pats is because of the edge they have at quarterback, which is the most important position in the sport. While the Pats have the GOAT, the Eagles have backup quarterback Nick Foles. It’s not as if Foles has done poorly —  the Eagles have exceeded their Vegas expectations with him almost as much as with Pro Bowl starter Carson Wentz — but Foles isn’t nearly as good as Brady.

But is the quarterbacking edge Brady provides significant enough to make the Pats a must-bet team in Super Bowl 52?

How important has the quarterbacking edge been in previous Super Bowls?

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