Browns vs. Bills NFL Prediction: Elite Algorithm Value on Total (Sunday, Nov. 20)
Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
The total for Browns vs. Bills has jutted and jived in eighty different directions since last week on account of a simple venue change.
But the number the market decided was equilibrium a few hours before kickoff is still inefficient.
That's according to the Action Network's proprietary betting models, which assign value based on injuries, matchups, rest, rotations, travel and every other variable associated with NFL games.
For Browns vs. Bills, the pick on the total has roughly 5% in value. Effectively, you'll be receiving a 5% discount on what the fair value price is for this line.
Over the long run, if you only bet on lines with at least a 5% betting edge, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Browns vs. Bills NFL Algorithm Prediction
This line opened at roughly 47 before deteriorating to about 42.5 amid news that Western New York was going to be hit by a torrential blizzard later that week.