NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap: Overs Dominate, Dogs Bark, and Line Moves Falter
The first week of the 2025 NFL preseason is in the books, and if you were betting Overs or backing underdogs, you’re probably smiling.
From historic scoring trends to rare underdog runs, bettors saw some of the most profitable opening-week results in two decades.
Overs Cash at Historic Rate
Bettors who rode the Over in Week 1 had an almost perfect run: 14-2-1 (88%), with games sailing over by an average of 8.6 points per game. A $100 bettor would be up $1,078, good for nearly a 60% ROI
The lone push came in the Falcons-Lions matchup, which ended 17-10 but was suspended due to an injury to Lions CB Morice Norris. Since the game concluded in less than 55 minutes of play, most sportsbooks refunded Over tickets.
According to Bet Labs, the 14-2-1 start is the best in the last 20 years, edging out 2022’s 13-2 mark for second place. And if you had teased the Over by six points in every game, you’d be sitting at 15-1-1, with only the Vikings-Texans matchup falling short of its teased number.
Scoring has also been front-loaded: the first-half Over is 13-4 so far, also the best opening-week mark in two decades.
Underdogs Bite Back
It wasn’t just Overs making noise. Closing-line underdogs went 12-5 ATS, covering by an average of 7.2 points per game. That’s a $603 profit for $100 bettors and a 35.5% ROI — the best preseason Week 1 mark since 2008 and the second-best in 20 years.
Underdogs also delivered outright: 10-5-2 on the moneyline, tying 2013 for the most Week 1 dog wins in the past 20 seasons. The trend isn’t just a one-week wonder — over the last two preseasons, underdogs are 44-22 ATS (67%), covering by more than 3 points per game.
Line Moves Lead to Losses
If you chased steam this preseason, you likely got burned. Eleven of the 17 games closed at a different number than they opened, and the team getting the line move in their direction went just 3-8 ATS. That includes 2-8 ATS when the move was 2+ points and a brutal 0-6 ATS when the line moved 4+ points.
It’s not a new phenomenon. In the last two preseasons, teams seeing a 2+ point move in their favor are just 12-26 ATS, and when the move is 5+ points, they’re 1-10 ATS.
