Chris Long Breaks Down Gambling Strategies on The Favorites Podcast

Eleven-year NFL veteran and two-time Super Bowl champion Chris Long joined The Favorites podcast with Chad Millman and Simon Hunter to discuss a litany of topics. Chief among them was his love for gambling, especially when it comes to the NFL.

Long – who shared that The Favorites is one of his favorite listens – hosts his own show, The Green Light Podcast, in which he, his co-hosts and an assortment of guests focus on football analysis as well as sports gambling.  Long’s approach to sports betting was a major focus of his appearance on The Favorites. Below are some of the highlights.

On his biggest lessons learned after years of betting:

Long: I think I’m constantly learning. I’ll learn things this year that I don’t know yet, and this is year five or six for me. I’ve been gambling the whole time, and the thing is you have to lose. You have to go through the frustrating realization that yeah, you might know football really well, but gambling is a different thing entirely. I mean, you put it in the context of the game, but it’s a game outside the game. It is governed by people that aren’t football experts necessarily from an X’s and O’s perspective, but they understand numbers. They understand trends. They understand spots. They understand the context around each game. I think for me that’s the really fun part. Talking to older gamblers who all have theories and ways that they do things, because they’re no right answer (or) everybody would be hitting at a 60% clip.

On advantages he has being a former player:

Long: (Live betting) was a phase that I went through, where it was like, ‘Hey, as a player an advantage I can gain is watching the first quarter of the game.’ And especially with totals, understanding what’s gonna happen as the game opens up. And also feeling the flow of the game from a pace standpoint, which is big. That’s a thing where I can provide my actual expertise. Watching a game and hopping on these live totals or sides, and betting teams that are down 10 points. Taking the more long-shot bets.

On how his methods have changed over the years:

Long: Early in my career, I was big on risk-averse things (thinking) if I’m risk averse, they can’t get me. You’re betting favorites, these (crappy) moneyline numbers. Betting teasers where it looks good on paper, but mathematically you’re taking on a lot of risk. Eventually one of those is going to bite you in the ass. So, learning naturally to take the plus-money stuff, lean in on the totals, and then more than anything, pace yourself through the year.

On the value of betting later in the year:

Long: If I come out guns blazing early in the year, the great equalizer is nobody really knows what these teams are gonna look like and how these pieces or going to fit and who is actually the cream that’s gonna rise to the top. In the playoffs this year, I think I went 85% on sides. I’m not tooting my horn, but what I am saying is that by the time the playoffs roll around, I know what’s going on. Because I’ve seen a full sample size of these teams playing, and the less games there are, the more you can really focus on.

On managing his bankroll:

Long: I set aside mid-five figures, and I say, ‘I don’t want to be down more than this at the end of the season.’ If I can kind of just keep an eye on that number, and actually gamble responsibly, which is like, hey, you’re down, you don’t chase. You keep your units the same as much as you can. You have units for different kinds of bets. Like, my unit for taking a side is gonna to be different than betting a +350 ‘dog. You just try to stick to a formula. Like, yeah, I have been down my entire nut, or whatever you want to call it in an entire week. And that’s when the crisis starts. And if it’s Week 7, you’re like, damn dude. I have to pay up to feel like I’ve got a clean slate. But if I know I owe money, it’s a totally different thing.

On determining his unit sizes:

Long: I probably put twenty (thousand) on the Super Bowl, and I won. (And I bet that amount) because I was up about that much during the playoffs. Because I was rolling. So, if I feel very confident in something and I know it’s toward the end of the season and I’m up, then I’m going to manage the budget a little bit. I’m not one of these people going to the casino and betting $500,000 on a side. That’s like Floyd Mayweather or somebody like that. I still have a family to feed. I kind of think about it like, if my wife saw my balance, would she make me sleep in the RV? And if I kind of have that barometer for ‘I’m screwing it up’ and I think about my wife seeing the bets I’m making, that’s kind of like my conscience.

On why he gambles:

Long: The reason I gamble is not for a source of income outside of football. I gamble for a ton of different reasons. Number one is I like to compete. That’s it. I love to compete. I love to feel alive watching the games. And for me, I almost enjoy chasing more than when I’m winning, which is a very interesting thing that tells me a little bit about myself. I like a challenge. So, I almost have to be more careful when I’m up in some ways.  So it’s the competitive nature of it, and then it’s also the educational nature. It’s a big challenge saying I can learn this new skill, and it’s gonna take me a few years, but I’d like to know the things y’all know. And then on top of that, I’ll put action on games just to engage myself in the game. I really do pride myself in, ‘Hey, if Chicago is playing Carolina on Thursday night in Chicago this year, I’m betting that game.’ By the way, I went 2-0 in that game. Easy under! But it’s one of those things where, like, if I have a little something on that game, I’m going to be on the edge of my seat until midnight on a Thursday night when a lot of the other analysts are not watching. And that gives me an edge because I’ve watched everything, even if I had to trick myself into watching it.