Welcome to the quarter role of the 2025 NFL season. Big favorites are cruising, public is still getting hurt and we are officially out of defeated and undefeated ATS teams.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 5 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Sept. 30, at 3 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk Rules
Best of the Best
NFL closing favorites of 6 pts or more are 16-2-1 SU this season — that is the fewest outright losses by 6+ favorites through four games since 1979, when they went (19-1 SU). Dating back to Week 13 of last year, these 6+ pt favorites are on a 56-6-1 SU (90.3%) stretch, winning by 14 points per game.
The totals market has been a bit different Through 64 games, we have had 32 overs and 32 unders … exactly .500 entering Week 5.
Favorites?!?!
Streak Breaking
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. Every other team in the NFL has at least 3 covers as a favorite in this span (2nd-fewest, Giants).
The 10-game SU losing streak as favorites is the longest for any team since the 1970 merger. Since 2020, Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-10 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-18 ATS since 2020.
Public Humiliation
Rough Start
According to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 10-24 ATS through four weeks. Through four weeks, that is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database. The 2nd-worst? Last year, where they went 12-22-1 ATS. In the last two seasons, teams with 60%+ of tickets went 22-46-1 ATS (32%) in the first four weeks of the year.
What A Run
Lions Cover Machines
Detroit is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) in the regular season since 2021. They are demolishing the best 5-yr ATS regular season mark since 1990, which goes to the 2003-07 Patriots and 1999-03 Eagles at 66.2%.
In that span since 2021, Goff has 48 of the Lions 50 covers. Next closest QB in total ATS covers is Justin Herbert with 39.
➤The Lions have recently been simply dominant.
SU streaks:
17-3 SU (85%) last 20 games
31-9 SU (78%) last 40 games
40-12 SU (77%) last 52 games
ATS streaks:
14-5-1 ATS last 20 games
21-7-1 ATS last 29 games
38-13-1 ATS last 52 games
Want to find a similar 50-game ATS stretch as the Lions, the Vikings in 2016-17 also had a 50-game stretch with 70%+ cover pct.
Back To Even
No Outliers
We are entering Week 5 and we have no undefeated ATS teams and no defeated ATS teams — a balance in the NFL through four weeks we have only seen three times since the start of the Wild Card era in 1990.
2025, 2010 and 2005 are the three seasons where we haven't had either a undefeated or defeated ATS team through four weeks.
Another Week
Titans Futility
The Titans ATS futility knows no bounds…
They are now:
• 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games
• 3-18 ATS in their last 21
• 6-24-1 ATS in their last 31
• 8-27-1 ATS in their last 36
In the Titans last 25 games, they are 4-20-1 ATS – that is the worst mark for any team in the Wild Card era. At 20% or less ATS over a 25-game sample size, the 2018 Broncos and 2017 Browns would be the last team with this bad a stretch.
Out and Out?
Time Is Now
The Ravens are 1-3 SU after their loss to Chiefs last week. Since division realignment in 2002, sixteen teams had a double-digit win total in the preseason and started the season 1-3 SU – 14 failed to make the playoffs and two did (2007 Chargers, 2002 Steelers). Thirteen consecutive teams since San Diego in 2007 have failed to bounce back from the tough start and make the postseason.
Low, Low, Low
International Incident
In the NFL International Series, which started in 2005 for regular season, the O/U in Vikings-Browns this week is the lowest total among all 51 games…
Lookahead was 41.5, it is now down to 36.5.
Every NFL Game For Week 5
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➤The 49ers have lost three consecutive games outright against the Rams, also losing their last four against L.A. against the spread. This is San Francisco’s first 3-game outright losing streak vs. Rams since 2000-01 and their first 4-game ATS losing streak to the Rams since 1999-00.
The last time the 49ers lost 5 consecutive games ATS vs. the Rams? Between 1970-74, when they lost 8 straight.
➤Both coaches have had success on short rest.
- Sean McVay is 17-7 ATS coaching any game on short rest. When the spread is -4 or shorter or an underdog for the Rams, they are 15-2 ATS in this spot.
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 14-10-1 ATS playing on short rest – that is 6-3 ATS with Brock Purdy, the best of any QB under Shanahan. In Shanahan’s 14-10-1 ATS mark on short rest, he is 2-3 ATS vs. Rams and 12-7-1 ATS vs. all other teams.
➤Shanahan has been pretty good ATS as an underdog vs. NFC West, going 13-8. This would be Purdy 1st career start as an underdog vs. the NFC West.
Not just that, in Purdy’s short career he has only been listed as an underdog three times and San Francisco is 0-3 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13.8 PPG. Since 2003, only two QBs are currently 0-4 ATS or worse as an underdog – Dorian Thompson-Robinson (0-4 ATS) and Nathan Peterman (0-4 ATS).
Brock Purdy as Underdog
+6.5, L 35-10 at BUF (2024)
+4, L 40-34 vs. DET (2024)
+3, L 31-7 at PHI (2022-23)
➤San Francisco has had some road success.
+ Purdy has played on the road on Thursday Night Football three times, he is 3-0 SU/ATS, scoring 36, 31 and 21 pts.
+ Shanahan has coached six career games on the road against McVay, he is 5-1 ATS, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
➤What a ridiculous season so far for Puka Nacua. He leads the NFL in targets, receptions and receiving yards through four weeks … the 2nd season he’s had this type of start.
50+ targets and 500+ receiving yards through four games last 40 years:
Puka Nacua (2023, 2025)
Reggie Wayne (2012)
Wes Welker (2011)
Terrell Owens (2005)
Jimmy Smith (2000)
Marvin Harrison (1999)
➤49ers WR Ricky Pearsall hurt his knee in the game vs. Jaguars last week. This season he leads the 49ers in first-read/designed targets with 27, 8 more than 2nd, Christian McCaffrey. Pearsall has almost 44% of the 49ers total team air yards on the year, a massive part of Purdy’s downfield action.
➤49ers had four turnovers in the loss to the Jaguars last week. Since 2020, teams with 4+ turnovers in a game are actually 70-51-6 ATS (58%) in their next game.
Last week, the 49ers didn’t have a single sack or force a single turnover. San Francisco has tied the NFL record with their 11th straight game without an interception.
➤The Vikings played last week in Dublin against the Steelers and now face the Browns in London this week. This is the third time a team will play consecutive games overseas, with the Jaguars doing so in 2023 and 2024.
In the Jaguars second game overseas in that spot, they went 2-0 SU/ATS. Jaguars led at the half, led through three quarters and outscored their opponents in the second half in both games.
Browns have only played one game overseas, back in 2017 against … the Browns. Minnesota was -11 and won 33-16 against Cleveland. Case Keenum against DeShone Kizer.
➤In the NFL International Series, which started in 2005 for regular season, the O/U in Vikings-Browns this week is the lowest total among all 51 games – Lookahead was 41.5, it is now down to 36.5.
➤Kevin Stefanski takes his team overseas this week to play in London. This will be Stefanski’s first game coached in the International Series. He becomes the 23rd head coach in his first game coached overseas to face a coach with International coaching experience, Those inexperienced coaches are 13-9 SU and 12-10 ATS, a slight edge.
➤A few facts and trends from the 51 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 26-25. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 2-0 to the under
Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 6-4 to the over
Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games.
+ They are 36-14-1 SU and 32-19 ATS.
+ Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
+ Favorites at Tottenham are 4-6 ATS. All other international stadiums: 28-12 ATS.
+ Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 26-9-1 SU, 22-14 ATS.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 22-16 ATS
66%+: 15-10 ATS
70%+: 9-3 ATS
➤A Carson Wentz-led offense has faced Kevin Stefanski twice in his career as a starter. Wentz is 0-2 SU/ATS, scoring 27 total pts in the two games.
With a loss in London, Stefanski would be Wentz’ 2nd-worst opposing coach behind just Mike Vrabel, who Wentz is 0-4 ATS against.
➤The bounce back spot hasn’t been the best for Minnesota under Kevin O’Connell. They are 6-10-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 2-6 ATS after a road or neutral loss.
➤Sacks don’t translate well in neutral games. Teams who allowed 5+ sacks in their previous game and then play in an International Series game are 0-4 SU/ATS since 2019.
➤Sacks get in the way of winning. Nobody can say that more than Cleveland. Since the start of last season, they are 0-13 SU when they allow 3 sacks or more. The next-closest team without a win are the Saints at 0-8 SU.
➤Browns got roasted by the Lions last week, allowing 34 points and losing by 24 points. Under Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland is 10-3-1 ATS the game after allowing 30+ pts since 2022, that is the best mark for any head coach in the NFL in that span.
➤The Colts entered last week at 3-0 ATS, with the Chargers as the lone undefeated ATS teams in the NFL at the time. Last week, they both lost SU and ATS on the road.
Since 2020, the week after a team loses its first game ATS, they are just 69-84-7 ATS (45%), including covering just 43% of their next games over the last decade.
In a team’s fifth game or later, these teams coming off being undefeated ATS are just 24-44-2 ATS (35%) since 2012, too.
➤The interceptions for Geno Smith has been a problem. Geno has thrown 3 interceptions in both of his home starts for the Raiders – for perspective, Derek Carr only had 2 home games with Vegas and Oakland with 3+ interceptions. In Geno’s two road starts, he has only thrown one INT, which is an improvement. Overall, Geno leads the NFL in picks with 7.
Not the best bounce back: Geno has started fourteen games for the Raiders, Seahawks and Jets where his team threw 2+ INT in their previous game, they are just 5-9 ATS in that next game.
➤Colts had a tough one last week. Three turnovers, 11 penalties, lost the yards per play battle and much more.
The bounce back has been good with Shane Steichen:
7-3 SU/6-4 ATS after 8+ penalty game
5-2 SU/ATS after 3+ turnover game
8-4 SU/7-5 ATS after under 100 rushing yards
➤Pressure? What pressure. This season, Daniel Jones is 25-of-39 passing while under pressure, his 64.1% completion pct is the best mark in the NFL.
In Week 4 vs. Rams, Jones went 10-11 for a TD and no INT under pressure and 6-8 for a TD when being blitzed. His two interceptions? On throws 20+ yards downfield.
➤It would be hard to overreact to how big a loss Malik Nabers is to the Giants offense.
50.8% of their team’s air yards entering Week 5, 26% of their targets, over 30% of their receiving yards and 6 of the Giants 9 end zone targets.
Here’s the bad part. 94 WRs have 50+ routes run this year. The Giants have three WRs ranked 81st or worse. Nabers is at 5.3%, 81st, while Slayton is 92nd and Wan’Dale is 94th.
Nabers had a 5.3% win rate on his routes
➤Jaxon Dart’s next mission, beat the Saints on the road. Even with a tight spread, worth noting in the last five years, QBs in their first two career starts are 13-34 SU on the road … 1-1 SU this season with JJ McCarthy and Cam Ward.
➤Jaxon Dart became the 6th QB since the merger to defeat a team who was 3-0 SU or better in his first career start. How did those other QBs perform next?
2025 Jaxon Dart, NYG
2002 Marc Bulger, STL – won 6 in a row SU begin career. 3-game ATS win streak.
1999 Jeff Garcia, SF – lost 5 in a row SU/ATS after 1st win.
1992 Brett Favre, GB – lost 3 in a row SU/ATS after 1st win.
1989 Frank Reich, BUF – won 3 in a row SU/ATS after 1st win.
1979 Phil Simms, NYG – won 3 in a row SU/ATS after 1st win.
➤Giants had a ridiculous 42 rushing attempts last week in their win against the Chargers, 2nd-highest mark for any team this season (Bills in Week 2 vs. Jets).
Since 2020, teams who rush the ball 40+ times in their previous game are 96-63 SU (61%) and 89-69-1 ATS (56%), including 57% ATS when that team is listed as an underdog.
➤As a head coach, Brian Daboll is 20-36-1 SU, with all six of the QBs he’s had starting for him below .500 SU as a starter as well .. except for one now, Jaxon Dart who is 1-0 SU as a starter:
Jaxon Dart: 1-0 SU
Tommy DeVito: 3-5 SU
Tyrod Taylor: 2-3 SU
Daniel Jones: 13-20-1 SU
Drew Lock: 1-4 SU
Davis Webb: 0-1 SU
Russell Wilson: 0-3 SU
➤Teams after facing Buffalo since Allen’s 1st season as a full-time starter in 2019 are 43-59 SU (42%), the worst win pct in the NFL.
➤Saints have not started strong this season. They are not only 0-4 against the first quarter spread, but they’ve been outscored 44-7 in the opening frame this year.
➤Spencer Rattler has now made nine career NFL starts and has yet to find a win, 0-10 SU. Rattler’s last win in CFB or NFL came against Kentucky on November 18th, 2023. Here is the list of players to start 0-10 SU since 1990. The scary note for Rattler, we’ve had 8 QBs since merger lose ten straight to start a career, 3 never won a game (Kizer, Mettenberger, Croyle).
DeShone Kizer 15
Stan Gelbaugh 11
Spencer Rattler 10
Derek Carr 10
Zach Mettenberger 10
Brodie Croyle 10
As an underdog of 10 pts or less, Rattler is 0-7 ATS in his career.
➤Chris Olave has 185 receiving yards on 43 targets, which is T-2nd most in the NFL entering Week 5. In the last 40 years, no player has had 43+ targets and fewer than 200 receiving yards through four games .. till now.
➤Dak Prescott has enjoyed himself some New York living. He has started seven games at MetLife Stadium since 2017 and he is 6-1 SU, winning four in a row. Aside from AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Dak has his most SU wins at MetLife.
➤Dak has done a good job coming off emotional night games. Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS since 2019 as a road favorite off a night contest in their previous game. On the road after a night game, Dallas is 10-6 SU/ATS in that span.
➤Justin Fields has made 47 starts in his NFL career. He is 14-33 SU in those starts. When his opponent scores more than 20 pts, Fields’ teams are 0-25 SU (6-18-1 ATS), when they score 20 pts or less Fields is 14-8 SU (13-9 ATS).
➤Dak does well vs. bad teams. He’s 39-13 SU (75%) and 32-18-2 ATS (64%) vs. teams under .500 SU in his career, winning those games by 9.6 PPG. The issue has been on the road though in this spot where he has 10 of the 13 outright losses, including losing two in a row to the Bears (2025) and 49ers (2024).
➤Nobody is throwing it more downfield against a team, than against this Dallas defense. This season, opposing QBs are throwing the ball 20+ yards downfield in 15.6% of pass attempts, the highest mark in the NFL by a full 1% over the Eagles.
➤Cowboys had a wild Sunday Night Football game last week where 80 combined points were scored and went over the total by 33.5 points against the Packers. In the last decade, we’ve had 23 teams coming off a night game where the game went over by 30+ points, the under is 14-8-1 in their next game.
➤Jets have historically struggled in night games, they are 3-12 SU since 2020. Not just that, since 2020, the Jets are 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS the game after playing in primetime, including 0-3 SU/ATS at home at MetLife.
The Jets and Giants have played a combined 40 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-35 SU in those games.
➤Getting over a tough game? Since 2021, the Jets are 9-4 SU after facing the Dolphins and Patriots and 1-7 SU after facing the Bills.
➤Both the Jets and Cowboys are coming off night games last week – last three seasons, when both teams are coming off a night game, the over is 32-18 (64%), going over the total by 7.5 PPG.
➤Too many points? Teams who are 0-4 SU or worse, facing a team .500 SU or worse are 20-11 ATS since 2018, covering the spread by 2.7 PPG. This week that is the Jets, Saints and Titans.
➤The current Eagles streaks are worth noting. Since October 1 of last year, Eagles are 20-1 SU, with their only loss coming to the Commanders in a game Jalen Hurts left in the middle of the second Philly drive and never returned.
Looking specifically at home in Philadelphia, Hurts is 29-9 SU and 22-15-1 ATS in his career. Hurts is 28-3 SU as a home favorite and 1-6 SU as a home underdog. Looking at the short line for Philly this week, Hurts is 15-5 ATS in home games he is a dog or favored by less than 6 pts.
➤Broncos have had their struggles on the road in Philly, going 1-6 SU all-time on the road against the Eagles. The only Broncos QB to get the win in Philly? John Elway.
➤Bo Nix came out and dominated the Bengals last week moving to 9-2 ATS as a favorite in his career. As an underdog, Nix is just 4-7 ATS, losing his last four starts SU and ATS as an underdog.
The one thing Nix always does well, don’t get blown out. He is 20-2 in a 6-pt teaser in his 22 career starts, covering in a 6-pt tease in his last 12 regular season starts.
➤Eagles pass defense has been tough to complete passes on this season. Opposing QBs are completing 56.9% of passes against the Eagles, the lowest mark in the NFL
The problem? Uncharacteristically, the Eagles defense only has five sacks through four games. Eagles defense is the first since 2010 to have 5 sacks or less but have their pass defense allow 57% or less in terms of the opposing QB completion pct.
➤The Eagles are winning comes unlike any other. Philly didn’t complete a pass in the second half last week – the first team to win a game without completing a pass in second half since Raiders on Christmas 2023 vs. Chiefs.
Since 2023, Eagles are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS when having 130 pass yds or less as a team – the rest of the NFL is 43-85 SU and 48-77-3 ATS in that span.
In the Eagles last nine games after posting 130 pass yds or less since 2023, they are 9-0 SU in their next game, winning by 14 PPG and averaging 33.3 PPG.
➤Philadelphia is winning without a dominant Saquon right now.
Saquon Barkley rushing yards:
Week 1: 88
Week 2: 60
Week 3: 46
Week 4: 43
This season, Barkley is averaging 2.7 yards per carry in the second half with the 2nd-most carries behind just Josh Jacobs. Last year, Barkley led the NFL in second half carries and he was averaging 6.7 yards per carry – a fyll four yard difference.
➤Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. Every other team in the NFL has at least 3 covers as a favorite in this span (2nd-fewest, Giants).
Longest SU Losing Streak as Favorites – Since the 1970 Merger
2021-25 Panthers, 10
1979-81 Seahawks, 8
2015-17 Bears, 7
2015-16 Falcons, 7
1973-75 Giants, 7
Since 2020, Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-10 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-18 ATS since 2020.
➤Panthers defense, specifically pressure and sacks, has really been a letdown this year. Carolina has just two sacks on defense through four games, T-fewest for any team (with 2023 Bears) since the Dolphins in 2015 who had one.
Amazingly enough, the Panthers have a pressure pct on defense of 7% this year. The Jets at 10.3% is the closest. The median at this point in the season is about 17%.
➤Bryce Young is 7-25 SU (22%) as a starter in the NFL after last week’s loss to the Patriots. Six of his 7 career wins have come in non-road games, five at home and one at a neutral site.
In his career, Young has only closed as a favorite once – back in 2024 against the Cowboys and Cooper Rush.
Bryce has closed +3 or shorter (+3, +2, etc) just four times in his career as a starter and Carolina has scored fewer than 20 pts in all four games, averaging just 13.3 PPG.
➤Bryce has always struggled in the first half against the spread, with a 11-21 1H ATS mark in his career. When the 1st half total is under 20, he is 2-9 1H ATS. At 20 or higher, he is a respectable 9-12 1H ATS.
➤In Tua’s career, he is 13-19 SU and 14-17-1 ATS playing away from South Beach. When his opponent in that away game is above .500 SU on the season, Miami is 2-14 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in those games – when their opponent is .500 SU or worse, they are 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS.
Against “bad” teams away from home, Tua is 4-0 SU since the start of the 2023 season.
➤For Tua, it also bleeds into his second half play. In his career, Tua is 33-30-4 against the second half spread – 8-14-1 2H ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 20-13-1 2H ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.
➤Since the start of last season, the over is 18-5 in Ravens games, going over the total by 6 PPG, by far the best mark in the NFL.
On the other side, the Texans are 16-7 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark to the under in the NFL.
This season, the Ravens are the lone 4-0 to the over team and the Texans are the lone 4-0 to the under team.
This is the first time in over 20 years we’ve had two teams, one undefeated to the over and the other undefeated to the under, face off in their 5th game or later. The last such game? Colts and 49ers back in October of 2005 (Peyton Manning vs. Alex Smith), a 28-3 final going under the total.
➤Lamar Jackson has faced the Texans five times in his career as a starter and he is 5-0 SU, beating Houston by a whopping 24 PPG. Lamar is also 5-0 ATS in those matchups, covering the spread by 16.5 PPG.
In those five matchups against Lamar’s offense, quarterbacked by CJ Stroud three times and Deshaun Watson twice, Houston has scored a total of 44 points, scoring 10 pts or less in 4 of the 5 games.
➤How much scoring does Lamar Jackson add to the Ravens?
Since 2019, five QBs have started a game for Baltimore: Lamar, RGIII, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson and Tyler Huntley.
Here is how they have compared. In the 14 games started by QBs not named Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is 4-10 SU, but 9-5 ATS, including 2-1 SU/ATS when listed as a favorite.
Lamar, Other QBs
Record: 63-27 SU & 49-40-1 ATS, 4-10 SU & 9-5 ATS
PPG: 28.1 PPG, 16.6 PPG
Opp PPG: 19.9 PPG, 19.3 PPG
30+ pts on Off.: 42 of 90 (47%), 1 of 14 (7%)
ATS Margin: +2.8, +1.0
➤This will be the 9th trip to Baltimore for the Texans franchise since its inception in 2002 – they are 0-8 SU, losing by 15.6 PPG.
➤What is there to say about the Ravens defense? They’ve allowed 133 total pts through four games, not only most in the NFL, but 29 more pts than Baltimore has ever allowed at this point in the season.
Woody Marks and Nick Chubb like to see this, but Baltimore has allowed 7 rush TDs this year, T-most in the NFL with the Titans, who they played last week.
➤Here is the reality. The Ravens are 1-3 SU after their loss to Chiefs last week. Since division realignment in 2002, sixteen teams had a double-digit win total in the preseason and started the season 1-3 SU – 14 failed to make the playoffs and two did (2007 Chargers, 2002 Steelers). Thirteen consecutive teams since San Diego in 2007 have failed to bounce back from the tough start and make the postseason.
➤Stroud has made 40 starts in his NFL career and he is 11-8 ATS as an underdog and 8-13 ATS as a favorite.
If Lamar starts and the line rises again, Stroud has been listed as an underdog of 8 pts or more three times entering this week – the three biggest listed lines for him as a dog in his career. Twice vs. Ravens and once vs. Chiefs. In those three games, Houston has scored a total of 33 points.
➤The Texans demolished the Titans last week, beating them 26-0. Teams after facing the Titans went 32-17-2 ATS between 2022-24, this season they are 0-3 ATS.
➤Stroud has been great against the first half spread in his career, going 28-12 1H ATS through 40 starts. Impressive part is he is 14-7 1H ATS after a SU win and 6-2 1H ATS after a win by more than one possession.
➤The Titans ATS futility knows no bounds…
They are now:
• 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games
• 3-18 ATS in their last 21
• 6-24-1 ATS in their last 31
• 8-27-1 ATS in their last 36
In the Titans last 25 games, they are 4-20-1 ATS – that is the worst mark for any team in the Wild Card era. At 20% or less ATS over a 25-game sample size, the 2018 Broncos and 2017 Browns would be the last team with this bad a stretch.
➤The Titans have 51 total points through four games, with just three total touchdowns. Since 2012, three teams have had 51 pts or less with 3 TDs or less through four games and all three head coaches were in their first season with the team:
2020 Giants, Joe Judge
2019 Dolphins, Brian Flores
2013 Jaguars, Gus Bradley
➤This will be Kyler Murray’s biggest line as a favorite since 2021 as long as he closes above a 7-pt favorite. As a home favorite, Kyler is 9-14 ATS in his career.
➤The 2-2 Cardinals will probably close above a TD favorite against the 0-4 Titans this week. Since division realignment in 2002, we’ve only seen four 2-2 teams close above a TD favorite against a winless team
➤Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence entered this season 15-17 SU and 10-11 SU respectively as favorites in their careers – they are both 2-0 SU as favorites so far this season. With a loss Sunday, here is the list Kyler will be on:
Most QB Starts as Favorite, Under .500 as Fav. Career
Michael Vick, 21-22 SU (43 games)
Robert Griffin, 7-8 SU (15 games)
Chad Henne, 5-8 SU (13 games)
➤Kyler has struggled against the first half spread in his career, going 34-53 1H ATS (39.1%). Even when his team is on extended rest, he is 6-10 1H ATS, like he is this week.
➤The Cardinals lost back-to-back games on a score allowed on final play of regulation for 1st time since moving to Arizona in 1988 per SportRadar.
➤After last week, the Cardinals are 9-40-1 SU vs. teams above .500 in the NFC West in the last 20 years — they've lost 12 in a row with their last win in 2021. Kyler Murray is 3-16 SU in this spot.
How does Kyler usually bounce back? After facing a divisional opponent who is over .500 SU, when you are listed as a favorite, Kyler has won 4 of his last 5 starts – not terrible.
➤Last week, Cam Ward became the 5th QB taken No. 1 overall to start 0-4 SU in the first four weeks of his rookie season, with:
2021 Trevor Lawrence
1998 Peyton Manning
1993 Drew Bledsoe
1989 Troy Aikman
Ward has also had a sack problem with 17 in his first four games. His 17 sacks leads the NFL and he is just the 10th QB to be sacked 17+ times in his first four games of his rookie season since the merger and Ward’s 4.9 yds per attempt among those 10 QBs is the worst.
➤Too many points? Teams who are 0-4 SU or worse, facing a team .500 SU or worse are 20-11 ATS since 2018, covering the spread by 2.7 PPG. This week that is the Jets, Saints and Titans.
➤Since Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold both left the Carolina Panthers, their careers have been on a different trajectory.
Mayfield is 26-19 ATS since leaving Carolina – the 8th-best mark in the NFL.
Baker was 27-39-1 ATS in his career before exiting Carolina.
Darnold is 14-8-1 ATS since leaving Carolina – the 6th-best mark in the NFL.
Darnold was 27-39-1 ATS in his career before exiting Carolina.
➤The Arizona hangover? Seahawks have now beaten Seattle in eight straight after last week. Going back to 2018, Seattle is 3-7 ATS in their game directly after playing Arizona.
➤In his career as a starting QB, Sam Darnold is 19-15-2 ATS after a SU win – a pretty respectable mark. Since the start of last season with the Vikings and the Seahawks, Darnold is 11-4-1 ATS after a SU win, thhe best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤Here’s a fact. Name the RB with the most total carries this season who still doesn’t have a single carry inside the 5-yard line? Bucky Irving, who has the 5th-most carries in the league with 71 and no carries inside the 5 and just three inside the ten.
➤In Mike Macdonald’s short career as coach of the Seahawks, he is 13-8 SU and 9-11-1 ATS – but his teams have been juggernauts on the road. On the road Seattle is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS under Macdonald. At home, they are just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS. The only coach with a worse home ATS record in that span? Brian Callahan at 0-10 ATS.
➤Bucs trailed 24-6 at home last week before making a large comeback to lost by just six points.
Since 2020, teams who trailed by 18+ pts at home are 106-86-3 ATS, going above .500 ATS each of the last five seasons.
➤Bucs and Baker Mayfield are the Cardiac Pirates. Since Baker arrived in 2023, the Bucs are 27-14 against the second half spread, tied with the Packers for the best mark in the NFL.
Here is Baker’s record 2H ATS career. The Bucs Effect. He went 25-45-1 2H ATS prior to his current stint in Tampa Bay.
Bucs: 27-14 2H ATS
Rams: 1-3 2H ATS
Panthers: 1-5 2H ATS
Browns: 23-37-1 2H ATS
➤With the Buccaneers, Baker is 15-8 ATS as an underdog, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG. When Baker starts, the Bucs are 21-2 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog. Since joining Tampa, Baker is the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind just Kyler Murray, who is 13-6 ATS in that spot.
➤Cooper Kupp has had his struggles lately, and compared to seasons past, his production is down. He has gone under his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 8 games.
Unlike against the Saints, the Seahawks might need a better Cooper Kupp against the Cardinals this week.
Kupp’s Pct of Routes with a Positive Separation Score | Yards Per Route Run
2025: 13.3% | 1.91
2024: 14.6% | 2.14
2023: 16.5% | 2.08
2022: 28.4% | 2.64
➤After the Lions cover last week against the Browns, Detroit is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) in the regular season since 2021.
They are demolishing the best 5-yr ATS regular season mark since 1990, which goes to the 2003-07 Patriots and 1999-03 Eagles at 66.2%.
In that span since 2021, Goff has 48 of the Lions 50 covers. Next closest QB in total ATS covers is Justin Herbert with 39.
➤The Lions have recently been simply dominant.
SU streaks:
17-3 SU (85%) last 20 games
31-9 SU (78%) last 40 games
40-12 SU (77%) last 52 games
ATS streaks:
14-5-1 ATS last 20 games
21-7-1 ATS last 29 games
38-13-1 ATS last 52 games
Want to find a similar 50-game ATS stretch as the Lions, the Vikings in 2016-17 also had a 50-game stretch with 70%+ cover pct.
➤It’s hard to fathom how bad it’s been for the Bengals over the last two games. They’ve been outscored 76-13 and have 14 punts in two games with 2 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost, while allowing almost 900 yards.
And then there’s this from OptaStats: In each of their last 2 games, the Bengals have: lost by 25+ points, had under 200 total yards, had under 60 rushing yards, been outrushed by 100+ yards and taken 3+ sacks – No other NFL team in the Super Bowl era has done that in back-to-back games.
Bengals are first team to lose by 24+ in consecutive games within the first four games of the regular season since Dolphins in 2019 (only other team in the last decade). In the Wild Card era (since 1990), teams coming off consecutive losses by 24+ pts are 7-20 SU and 10-17 ATS in their next game (18-9 to the over).
➤Jake Browning is 4-5 SU as the Bengals starter after the loss last week. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU with Burrow and 8-24 SU with all other QBs (Ryan Finley, Browning, Brandon Allen, Andy Dalton),
➤In first three months of the season — September, October, November — Zac Taylor is now 27-42-1 SU…
27-27-1 SU with Joe Burrow
0-15 SU with all other QBs … losing by 13.7 PPG.
➤The Bengals look to break a losing streak that has lasted now a generation. Cincinnati has lost seven straight games against the Lions, with their last victory coming back in 1992, that includes four of the 7 losses coming as favorites for Detroit in this span.
➤With the Lions, Jared Goff is 13-8 ATS in outdoor games. He’s closed -4 or higher in two of them: In consecutive weeks in December of last year, wins and covers in Chicago and San Francisco.
When Goff was with the Rams, he was 15-24-1 ATS in outdoor games.
➤Continued expectations aren’t easy. Last 20 years, teams favored by 7+ pts in three straight games, who play that 3rd game on the road are 48-12 SU but 24-35-1 ATS.
➤What Dan Campbell and the Lions have accomplished against the spread is historic. But in my opinion, what they are doing after winning is remarkable. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 23-6 ATS in their next game after a 6+ pt win and they are 20-5 ATS after a 7+ pt win.
➤The late window hasn’t been friendly to the Commanders, before Jayden Daniels. Since 2003, Washington is 59-86 SU playing at 4p ET or later. 20 different QBs have started for Washington in this spot, with a win Sunday Jayden (7-3 SU) would tie Mark Brunell with 8 career outright wins in this spot.
➤You normally don’t find a lot of stats where Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are under .500 – but at home against a team coming from EST, Herbert is 8-9 SU, and Harbaugh is 1-2 SU with the Chargers (10-5 SU with the 49ers). Herbert and the Chargers are 1-5 SU in their last six games in this spot.
➤Marcus Mariota has faced 17 dropbacks where he was under pressure this season, he has 3 pass TDs, no interceptions and 104 passing yards on those six completions – the most passing TDs under pressure for any QB this season.
➤Joe Alt might be missing the next few weeks for the Chargers and that could be an issue.
Alt has allowed 3 pressures on 142 pass plays this year (2.1%). Rest of the Chargers OL have allowed 60 pressures on 845 pass plays (7.1%). Last week when Alt came out due to injury, Austin Deculus came in and allowed six pressures on Herbert himself.
This season, Herbert has faced 69 dropbacks under pressure, the 2nd-most of any QB in the NFL behind just Joe Flacco. In the last three weeks, Herbert is 15-42 (36%) passing under pressure with one TD pass and 2 INT.
➤Commanders, Bears and Bills all play on Monday Night Football next week. Since 2019, teams with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 61% rate at 129-84 ATS-11, over .500 ATS in the last seven seasons.
➤Chargers skill position players are putting up some ridiculous numbers through four games.
- Quentin Johnston is 3rd in NFL in receiving yards and T-3rd in receiving TDs. Since 2000, only Antonio Gates in 2010 had 337+ rec yds and 4+ TDs through four games.
- Johnston is 7th in the NFL in targets, while Keenan Allen is T-8th, while Ladd McConkey has 8 targets fewer than Keenan and a ton of those targets have come short in depth (0-9 yds), as Herbert leads NFL in those pass attempts.
- Omarion Hampton is 12th in the NFL in rushing. Of the top-12 RBs on the rushing list, only Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Jeanty have a higher Yards After Contact per Attempt than Hampton does.
➤Marcus Mariota is 29-46-3 against the first half spread in the NFL. Of 267 QBs since 2005, Mariota’s 1st half ATS mark is the 3rd-worst, ahead of just Jay Cutler and Kyler Murray. Mariota has never finished a season even .500 1H ATS in six seasons.
➤Justin Herbert is 32-24-1 ATS as a favorite in his career as a starter – 13-4 ATS under Jim Harbaugh and 19-20-1 ATS under Brandon Staley and Anthony Lynn.
➤The Bills and Patriots rivalry comes down to words: Allen and Brady.
- Allen is 8-6 SU vs. the Patriots. 0-3 SU vs. Tom Brady and 8-3 SU vs. all other QBs.
- Since 2001, Bills are 12-37 SU vs. Patriots. Josh Allen has 8 of those wins, with none coming against Brady.
- For fun, in two career matchups, Drake Maye is 2-0 ATS vs. Josh Allen.
➤Bills could close as double-digit favorites three times in their first five games this week – here is a list of teams to accomplish that feat since 2000: 2020 Chiefs, 2019 Patriots, 2001 Colts, 2000 Jaguars. The Bills did it themselves last in 1992 (doing it four times).
➤In Josh Allen’s fourteen career starts against the Patriots, he is just 5-9 against the first half spread, losing five in a row in the first half vs. New England.
➤Drake Maye’s start to the season has been one to remember so far. On the surface, he leads the NFL in completion pct at 74% – the 2nd-highest mark through four games in Patriots history, behind just Tom Brady in 2007 (79.2%).
Maye has a 75+ completion pct and 2+ TD passes in 3 straight games The only player in history with a longer streak within a single season for any team? Tom Brady in Weeks 1-4, also in 2007.
➤Bills were 14.5-pt favorites against the Saints last week and now face the Patriots. Teams after closing as a 14+ pt favorite are 41-28-1 ATS (59%) since 2018, including 21-13 ATS at home.
➤For Josh Allen and the Bills, this could be the worst loss by point spread in a high-profile game if they were to lose on Sunday Night Football to the Patriots.
Josh Allen is 32-4 SU as a favorite of over 7 pts. 3 of the losses have come at 1p and the other loss came to the Broncos at night at home, but closed -7.5.
This will be Drake Maye’s first career NFL start at night in primetime and his first night start since Nov. 25, 2023 with UNC at NC State.
➤As a favorite of more than one possession (-8.5 or higher), Josh Allen is 28-2 SU in his career – his losses are to Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. Last 20 years, the only records that compete with Allen’s mark is Mahomes at 39-3 SU and Russ at 36-4 SU among active QBs.
➤If Bills close -8 or higher and don’t cover this week they would join just 2022 Bucs as teams to lose three straight games ATS as a favorite of 8+ pts dating back to the start of the 2010 season.
➤Patrick Mahomes has faced the Jaguars five times in his career and he is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games. A win on Monday Night Football for Mahomes would make the Jaguars his only 6-0 SU opponent, with the 49ers currently 5-0 SU as well for Pat.
On the road in the state of Florida, Mahomes is 5-1 SU, his only loss? In the Super Bowl to Brady and the Bucs.
➤Mahomes excelled in the quick passing game vs. the Ravens last week, going 17-of-22 for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns on throws under 2.5 seconds — his most quick TDs since Week 1 of 2022.
This season, Mahomes is getting his attempts off in 2.38 seconds, the 2nd-fastest time to throw among QBs this season, only behind Aaron Rodgers.
Since 2021, in Mahomes’ 32 starts where he released the ball the quickest, he is 30-2 SU in those games, with both losses to the Chargers and the Eagles coming this season (24-2 SU under 2.5 seconds).
➤Hard to believe the storyline in a Chiefs game might be from their opponent, but what Jacksonville is doing on defense this year is historic. Last year, Jaguars had nine total takeaways. Through four games, they have 13 this year and a +9 turnover differential, best mark in the NFL.
Jaguars are just the 3rd team last 20 years with 3+ takeaways in each of their first four games with 2024 Packers and 2013 Bears.
➤A Jaguars victory on Monday night would be historic. But at the very least, Jacksonville hasn’t beaten Kansas City since 2009, they’ve lost 8 straight outright, including three in a row in Jacksonville. In their last seven meetings, the under is 6-1 in this series.
Chiefs have won nine straight as outright as favorites vs the Jaguars with their last loss coming back in 2004.
➤This is just the second Jaguars home game on Monday Night Football since the end of the 2012 season. Blaine Gabbert is last Jaguars QB to win at home on MNF back in 2011.
➤The Jaguars are now 4-0 against the first half spread this season — the last undefeated team 1H ATS left in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence entered this season 26-36 1H ATS in his career.
➤In Mahomes’ career road games, he is 38-26 (59%) to the over, going over the total by almost a full field per game. When he starts on the road at night, the over is 15-8 even after it going under two weeks ago at Giants.
➤Mahomes has made 15 career road or neutral starts on extended rest where the closing spread was under -6 or he was an underdog – KC is 10-4-1 ATS in those games.
➤Last week, Trevor Lawrence broke a streak of six consecutive games with an interception, going without an INT in the road win against the 49ers.
After Trevor goes without a pick in his last game, he is just 12-19 ATS. The only worse marks of 95 QBs since he was drafted? Josh Allen at 14-21-1 ATS and Tom Brady at 3-16-1 ATS.
➤The whole concept of the west coast trip has worn out the Jaguars historically. Last 20 years, Jacksonville was 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS playing in PST … before last week.
How have they performed in their next game? Just 5-11 SU, losing by 8.1 PPG.
➤When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 65-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 30-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
➤Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 31-14 (69%), going under the total in that 2H by 3.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Look at undervalued underdogs.
Matches: NE, WAS, TEN, NYG, LV, CAR
System: After low scoring games, bet the bounce back.
Matches: TEN, CIN
System: Ready to bet the Titans?
Matches: TEN
System: Look under after both teams go over in unique scenarios.
Matches: NYJ/DAL, NE/BUF
System: A fun trend looking at coming off of a "party city."
Matches: NYJ, IND
System: Big home dogs early in the season.
Matches: CIN
