Here are the seven Week 5 NFL spreads I bet for the Sunday slate, starting with the Vikings-Browns game in London. I also included a long-shot anytime touchdown parlay from our podcast and my favorite prop at the end.
I did play the Raiders +7 small, which isn't included below, as I was just taking a number that I may eventually get off of with concerns about Vegas' offensive line without Kolton Miller and the health of Brock Bowers.
I'd stop reading now if you are interested in betting a bunch of good teams. Also, keep an eye out for my Chiefs vs Jaguars Monday Night Football preview.
Let's get into my NFL Week 5 picks and predictions for Sunday, October 5.
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions
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Vikings vs Browns
I don't love this side, given the uncertainty surrounding a rookie quarterback like Dillon Gabriel making his first career start against a Brian Flores defense.
Additionally, it's a nightmare situational spot for the Browns, who have to travel to London to take on a Minnesota team that will remain across the pond after last week's contest in Dublin. Not ideal.
However, I still took the points in a game where 4.5 points might feel like 10, as evidenced by the extremely low total that sits below 37 at the time of writing.
Cleveland's defensive line could completely overwhelm this bruised and battered Minnesota offensive line that will have to make do without three starters in center Will Fries, left guard Donovan Jackson, and Brian O'Neill.
Even backup center Michael Jurgens is out with an injury, which will likely leave those duties to backup guard Blake Brandel, who has never played center in a game at any level.
That could spell doom for Carson Wentz against the NFL's most dominant defensive line that ranks first in both pass block win rate and run stop win rate. And it's not just Myles Garrett, who could obviously wreak havoc on his own, but the entire DL for Cleveland is playing at an elite level, including Maliek Collins, Mason Graham, Shelby Harris, Isaiah McGuire, and Alex Wright, with a linebacker duo that is playing extremely well.
I just don't know what the recourse is for Wentz when under pressure. He has a 30% pressure-to-sack ratio and a sky-high 10% turnover-worthy throw percentage.
How will Cleveland move the ball? I expect head coach Kevin Stefanski to go with a super run-heavy game plan that features Quinshon Judkins, who has found success in his short NFL career against stacked boxes and may benefit from getting Jack Conklin back at right tackle.
Plus, Minnesota's run defense has looked very vulnerable, ranking 19th in Success Rate and 26th in Rush EPA. Even Pittsburgh found plenty of success on the ground with Kenneth Gainwell last week.
The Vikings really miss linebacker Blake Cashman's run-stopping ability, and also won't have the services of Andrew van Ginkel, whose presence will be sorely missed.
Additionally, how much of a drop-off can it really be from Joe Flacco to Gabriel?
Flacco ranked 33rd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in both EPA per Play and Success Rate. Gabriel can at least use his legs a bit. He also excelled against the blitz (which Flores will inevitably bring frequently) all throughout college.
During his illustrious collegiate career, he threw for 63 touchdowns with just seven interceptions (9-1 ratio) against the blitz compared to 92 touchdowns and 25 interceptions when not (3.7 ratio).
There also could be some early wrinkles the Vikings aren't prepared for, similar to what we saw with Jaxson Dart in his first career start against Jesse Minter's elite defense last week in New York. Stealing any early score would be massive in a game where points should come at a premium.
Lastly, suppose the Vikings try the same run-heavy approach to protect Wentz from the onslaught of pressure. In that case, they may not have as easy a time against a Browns defense that ranks sixth in Rush EPA and third overall in Rush Success Rate, even after playing the Bengals (with Joe Burrow), Ravens (when healthy), Lions and Packers across the toughest early-season schedule in the league.
Pick: Browns +4.5
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Giants vs Saints
Later, I might try to convince you to play the lowly Bengals. For now, how about backing a quarterback that is 0-10 in his career? I'll give it my best shot.
The Saints aren't as bad as many might assume. They were extremely feisty against San Francisco (which just beat the Rams with Mac Jones), Arizona and Buffalo. The game in Seattle got away from them due to special teams mistakes, but they weren't terrible on a down-to-down basis.
Spencer Rattler has looked serviceable at quarterback as well, ranking 17th in Success Rate, 15th in Completion Rate and 16th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation. He's played at a league-average level through four games, which is much better than I anticipated prior to the season.
The Saints have some nice weapons at Rattler's disposal and could even get Taysom Hill back for this game, which could factor into some short-yardage stuff or gadget plays.
While Rattler still searches for that elusive NFL victory, Jaxson Dart got his in his first-ever start.
However, that mainly had to do with the Giants' defensive line overwhelming a decimated Chargers offensive line, forcing QB Justin Herbert into a pair of interceptions that led to extremely short-field scores.
Dart only threw for 111 yards on the day, and now he can't rely on Malik Nabers to make plays on the outside or at least make defenses respect his field-stretching ability.
Additionally, the Saints now have tape on what Brian Daboll wants to do with Dart —a luxury the Chargers did not have.
I assume New Orleans will spy him relentlessly, forcing him to use his arm to move the ball in his first-ever road start. For what it's worth, quarterbacks have gone 13-34 SU on the road when that game comes in one of their first two career starts.
Lastly, what I really like about this matchup is the difference in quality of the respective run defenses in a matchup of two teams that rely heavily on their ground games.
New Orleans ranks 16th in Rush EPA and 11th in Rush Success Rate, while the Giants rank dead last in both categories. The Saints should have much more success sustaining drives and getting into more third-and-manageable situations, which should be enough to pull this one out.
Pick: Saints +1.5
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Cowboys vs Jets
Okay, we last mentioned the Bengals and the winless Saints. So, how about a good team?
Not so fast.
How about the winless Jets instead?
Look, New York should be 2-2 on the season after extremely unlucky losses to the Steelers and Dolphins. Last week in Miami, New York finished with 100 more net yards and a +15% net success rate, but could not overcome 13 penalties for 100 yards and a -3 turnover margin due to a trio of lost fumbles.
Meanwhile, Dallas could easily be 0-4 if not for a fortunate tie vs. the Packers and an extremely lucky win over the Giants at home in overtime. Speaking of which, the Cowboys also played an overtime game last week that ended in a tie, which played the maximum amount of minutes possible.
It's an extremely small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt, but road favorites following a tie have gone 0-4 ATS the next week, failing to cover by an average of two touchdowns per game. You usually see the effect of overtime games really wear on the defense in the next game, which certainly could be the case here.
The Jets have not been as bad as their record indicates. In fact, if you remove turnovers, they rank sixth in success rate on offense and fourth on defense.
Speaking of turnovers, they are overdue for some regression on that front. New York has a league-worst -7 turnover margin as the only team in the league yet to record a takeaway.
Now, Dak Prescott has played at an elite level to start the season for an offense that ranks second overall in success rate. However, things may not look as pretty as they do in Jerry World.
Don't forget that Bears blowout in Soldier Field, where the Dallas offense couldn't get anything going against a bunch of backup defensive backs after Ceedee Lamb left with an injury.
Well, Lamb remains out, and now Dallas will have to operate without KaVontae Turpin, who has historically been a demon against man coverage, which the Jets will utilize frequently. Prescott has also performed better against the zone so far this season.
Moreover, Dallas could be down four starting offensive linemen.
With center Cooper Beebe already on IR, the Cowboys have also ruled out left tackle Tyler Guyton and right guard Tyler Booker, while left guard Tyler Smith's status remains up in the air. That's extremely problematic to say the least.
Do I trust Justin Fields? Not usually, but even he can move the ball consistently against this atrocious Dallas defense, which is running man coverage at the lowest rate (6%) in the league. This is noteworthy considering Fields has averaged two more yards per attempt against zone.
It has become the new predictable Gus Bradley defense of the NFL. On the season, the Cowboys rank 30th in Success Rate and 32nd in EPA. They can't stop a nosebleed.
Lastly, for what it's worth, teams that are 0-4 or worse facing a team .500 or worse have gone 20-11 ATS (64.5%) since 2018.
Pick: Jets +3
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Broncos vs Eagles
Finally, a decent team.
I had to take the points here in what I anticipate being a lower-scoring affair.
It has been discussed ad nauseam, but this Philadelphia team appears broken despite its 4-0 record. There's a reason the Eagles sit at the top of our luck rankings; they beat the Rams due to a pair of blocked field goals after trailing 26-7 in the second half.
They also beat the Chiefs in large part due to a Travis Kelce wide-open dropped touchdown that ended up as an interception. And the Eagles even got another special teams score last week on a punt block against a decimated Bucs squad for their fourth one-possession win of 2025.
In that victory against Tampa, Philadelphia had -9 net yards in the second half, during which it didn't complete a single pass (0-for-8). Yes, there was a -30-yard safety, but that doesn't make it look any better. By any metric, this has been a below-average offense.
So, what has happened to the defending Super Bowl Champs?
Well, for starters, I believe there has been a massive downgrade at offensive coordinator, which shows in the playcalling, sequencing and overall creativity. The offensive line has also taken a major step back, as I'm not sure all of the guys are healthy up front (and they do miss Mekhi Becton).
As a result, Saquon Barkley just doesn't have as much room to operate, so he isn't breaking off those long runs we became so accustomed to seeing in 2024, when he averaged 6.7 yards per carry in the second half of games. This year, that number has plummeted to 2.7.
The Eagles defense has also taken a step back following all of the offseason departures. The secondary isn't as elite, and the pass rush isn't getting home as often, with just five sacks through four games.
Do I fully trust Bo Nix on the road against a still solid defense? Not totally, but the Broncos can lean on their dominant offensive line and run game against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in Rush Success Rate. That should help set up some easy throws off play-action plays when needed. Hopefully, Nix can hit enough open guys.
With Patrick Surtain's ability to contain wide receiver A.J. Brown, I'm just not sure how this Eagles offense will turn it on for four quarters against one of the better stop units in the league that should have no issues getting pressure on Hurts, who likely has some turnovers coming his way. Over the past two seasons, he has 28 touchdowns to just six interceptions despite a 25-22 BTT-TWP rate.
The luck will run out eventually, but even if it doesn't, I'm happy to take the points against an offense that doesn't look capable of pulling away from anybody at the moment in a game where points should come at a premium.
Pick: Broncos +4.5
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Dolphins vs Panthers
I got a bad number here, but don't really understand the Miami move.
The Dolphins should be 0-4 if not for a flukey win over the Jets on Monday night. Now, following two divisional games, they head out on the road on a short week in a potentially sleepy spot to take on Carolina, which comes off a misleading final against the Patriots, where its special teams really let it down in the first half, causing that game to get out of hand.
There just isn't much to like about this Miami team. The defense is one of the worst in the league, largely due to a dreadful secondary and an underperforming front that struggles to generate pressure.
As a result, the Dolphins are blitzing at one of the highest rates in the league, but that could play right into the hands of QB Bryce Young, who excelled against the blitz throughout 2024.
I get the Panthers have injuries along the offensive line, running back and at wide receiver/tight end, but they still have enough pieces to move the ball on this sieve of a Dolphins defense that can't cover on the back end with a front that ranks 24th in Pass Rush Win Rate and 28th in Run Stop Win Rate.
Look out for Tet McMillan, who leads all wide receivers in yards per route run vs. man coverage. He's the real deal.
While the Panthers lack talent on defense, they rank ninth in Success Rate; the Dolphins rank dead last. Carolina also employs the type of structural defense you want to roll out against Tua Tagovailoa and this Miami offense, which will now have to make do without Tyreek Hill.
Not only will Hill's playmaking ability be missed, but his presence on the field also opened up so many other things underneath. It's a big loss for an offense that can't block anybody up front.
Give me the Panthers at home to bounce back against a fellow bottom-feeder in Miami.
For the buy-low crowd, underdogs off a loss of more than four touchdowns have historically hit at a 60% ATS clip.
Pick: Panthers -1
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Buccaneers vs Seahawks
On the surface, this is a great spot to back Seattle after extended rest following a Thursday night game against a Bucs team coming across the country.
More importantly, Tampa is extremely beat up. It will still be without its starting right side of the offensive line in addition to Mike Evans, Bucky Irving (who will also be sorely missed catching balls out of the backfield) and a number of defensive starters, including starting cornerback Jamel Dean and his backup Benjamin Morrison.
That means you could see plenty of Kindle Vildor, who I think is the worst cornerback in the league. For what it's worth, the Bucs allowed 28 points per game in 2024 without Dean, who has been one of the stickiest coverage guys in the league so far this season.
This is also a Bucs team that has three come-from-behind, last-minute victories over the Texans, Jets and Falcons — three teams with a combined record of 3-9. They easily could be sitting at 0-4 on the season if not for some late-game heroics from Baker Mayfield, who has also been the luckiest quarterback in the league. He has only one interception this season despite nine turnover-worthy plays. Tampa has even been recovering all of his fumbles.
That could all change against a superb Seattle defense that can generate pressure (top-five rate) without blitzing (bottom-two rate). That has always been the kryptonite for Mayfield, who may be in store for a long day at the office against a front that will get to him, in conjunction with a secondary that can disguise coverages with the best of them under Mike Macdonald.
Hopefully Seattle doesn't try to run too often against DT Vita Vea and company, who are once again stifling opposing ground games.
If Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak approaches this correctly and uses heavy play-action against this shorthanded Tampa secondary, Sam Darnold should have no issues finding open wide receivers all over the field.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles may increase his blitz rate even more to compensate for the issues at cornerback, which he himself said he's extremely worried about, but Darnold has absolutely torched the blitz since the start of last season.
This is too good a spot and matchup to pass up on backing Seattle. Feed me the Baker picks.
Pick: Seahawks -2.5
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Lions vs Bengals
As promised, here are the Bengals.
This one is certainly scary, given what we've seen from Cincinnati over the past two weeks in a pair of blowout losses. However, I will hardly ever write off a team in the NFL where I'm constantly looking to buy low and sell high. And this game fits that mold perfectly.
Yes, Detroit has looked amazing since its Week 1 dud in Green Bay. However, it faced a Chicago team without a plethora of key defensive starters and took advantage of a broken (and extremely beat up) Ravens defense, in addition to a dysfunctional Cleveland offense that turned the ball over three times.
Regarding the Bengals, Jake Browning has played miserably, but you can't really have two tougher tests than on the road against Denver and Minnesota, especially with a putrid offensive line.
The Bengals' entire operation should look a lot cleaner this week at home against a Detroit defense that can't generate quick pressures at the same level as the Vikings and Broncos. On the season, the Lions rank 28th in pass rush win rate and 32nd in run stop win rate.
Plus, the Lions will be shorthanded in the secondary, which could open up opportunities for the one clear strength of this Bengals offense: its wide receiver room.
With DJ Reed (who had been playing at an elite level) now on IR and backup Khalil Dorsey ruled out, the Lions' cornerback room will consist of Terrion Arnold (who has been atrocious all season), Amik Robertson and Rock Ya-Sin, who graded out as the 169th corner among 182 with at least 50 coverage snaps in 2024.
None of them can cover Ja'Mar Chase or Tee Higgins, who will benefit from a massive size advantage. There's also a chance that starting safety Kerby Joseph (questionable), who led the NFL in interceptions in 2024, will miss Sunday's game.
And it's not as if we haven't seen Browning play at a functional level before. He led the Bengals to a comeback victory over the Jaguars and ranked seventh in EPA+CPOE composite among 32 quarterbacks (min. 300 snaps) in 2023 when he played in nine games. He has historically had success against the blitz (even this season), which is critical against the Lions, who have blitzed at one of the highest rates in the league.
I'm not sure how the Bengals will get any stops with their pathetic defense — although Taylor Decker's potential absence (questionable) could help in that department — but they can certainly keep up and stay within this number, which I just can't get to.
It's scary fading the Lions, who have covered at an obscene clip under head coach Dan Campbell, but this looks like a prime opportunity to sell high on Detroit in a potential sleepy spot after three straight victories with the Chiefs on deck.
Lastly, to better illustrate the buy-low nature of this Bengals spot, here are a few trends that favor Cincy:
- 'Dogs of 7+ with a 3-game average scoring margin of -17 or worse: 72-53-2 (57.6%) ATS
- Home 'dogs of 10+ since 2005: 74-56-1 (57%) and 60% when off a loss of 14+
- Home 'dogs after scoring three or fewer points: 61-36-2 (62.9%) ATS
- 7+ point home 'dogs this decade: 71-46-3 ATS 61%
I mean, who wants to play a bad team that just scored three or fewer points? Maybe only me.
Pick: Bengals +10.5
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Anytime Touchdown Parlay
Quinshon Judkins Anytime TD + Tee Higgins Anytime TD
Favorite Prop
Baker Mayfield to throw an INT (Also, don't hate 2+ and 3+)
