NFL Week 5 is here, and the decision-making gets tougher when it comes to NFL Survivor picks. There are clear favorites to choose from, but each comes with trade-offs around availability and future value.
In NFL Pick’em and Spread pools, the key remains finding leverage spots where public pick rates don’t line up with the true odds.
Below, we’ll break down the Week 5 landscape and highlight the smartest angles for NFL Survivor Picks and Game Winner Pick’em Pools.
NFL Week 5 Survivor & Pick’em Picks
The best NFL Survivor pick isn’t always the biggest favorite. Long-term success often comes down to balancing win odds, public popularity, and when to save or spend a team’s future value.
The right move also depends heavily on your specific pool rules and size — which is where PoolGenius comes in, offering tailored recommendations for both Survivor and Pick’em contests.
You can explore the tools with a free trial this week, or lock in exclusive season-long savings through Action Network.
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NFL Survivor Picks Week 5: Choosing Between the Top Three
Week 5 presents one of the trickiest decision points of the season. Three teams — the Cardinals, Lions, and Colts — sit tightly bunched at the top in both win odds and pick popularity.
The right call for your Survivor entry often comes down to which teams you’ve already used, how much future value you want to preserve, and your appetite for leverage.
Pick popularity numbers are via PoolGenius as of Tuesday, Sept. 30, and are for standard NFL Survivor pools.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Tennessee Titans, 28% popularity)
Arizona is a 7.5-point home favorite against a winless Titans squad that just got blanked by Houston. With Tennessee sitting at 0–4 and struggling on both sides of the ball, this projects as one of the Cardinals’ last great Survivor spots of the season.
Availability is the catch.
Many players used Arizona earlier this year, and if you’re still holding them, it may be now or never. After Week 5, the Cards don’t project above 55% win odds in any remaining game.
Detroit Lions (at Cincinnati Bengals, 21% popularity)
Detroit enters as a double-digit favorite against a Bengals team that looks lost without Joe Burrow. Backup QB Jake Browning has led Cincinnati to just 13 total points in the past two weeks, with the Bengals outscored 76–13 in that span.
The Lions are one of the strongest long-term Survivor assets, with five more games above 70% win odds, including premium holiday slates on Thanksgiving and Christmas (if your pool plays those in separate weeks, such as in Circa Survivor).
If you burn them now, you’re passing on significant future flexibility, but the safety this week is undeniable, with Detroit checking in as the biggest favorite on the board.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 20% popularity)
The Colts sit right alongside Detroit and Arizona in popularity. At 3–1, they’ve shown steady improvement, and they return home as 7-point favorites (~73% win odds) against a Raiders squad that has dropped three straight.
Indianapolis isn’t a team you need to stash all season, but it does hold a valuable Week 8 matchup against Tennessee (~80% win odds).
Using the Colts in Week 5 is fine if you want to avoid (or already used) options like the Cardinals and Lions, but make sure you’re comfortable passing up that future spot.
Outside-the-Box Survivor Alternatives
If you’re not sold on the “big three” this week — or don’t have them available — there are a couple of interesting pivots to consider.
Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots, 8% popularity)
Buffalo draws New England on Sunday Night Football as a 7.5-point home favorite (~76% win odds). The Bills' popularity is surprisingly low given their profile, largely because so many players have already used them in recent weeks.
The challenge with Buffalo is future value. No team grades higher the rest of the way, with six more games at 70%+ win odds still on the schedule.
That makes them extremely valuable to hold, but also viable as a Week 5 play if you want to zag away from the crowd and look to survive at low ownership while rooting for chaos elsewhere.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. San Francisco 49ers, 5% popularity)
The Rams may be the sharpest contrarian option on the board. They’re 3-1 and just a few plays away from being undefeated, while the 49ers come in banged up with QB Brock Purdy managing toe soreness and rookie WR Ricky Pearsall added to a lengthy injury list.
Los Angeles is a 6.5-point home favorite (~72% win odds) on Thursday Night Football. The Rams don’t offer much long-term value — only two more games project above 70% — but Week 9 (vs. New Orleans off the bye) is one exception.
If you’re looking to dodge the chalk this week, the Rams fit as a calculated gamble. Just make sure to set your pick before the Thursday kickoff.
NFL Pick’em Advice for Week 5: Value on Seattle
Game-winner pools are all about spotting the gaps between how often teams actually win and how often the public is picking them.
This week, Seattle checks that box.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Spread: -3.5
- Win Odds: 66.5%
- Pick Popularity: 42.0%
Seattle is shaping up as a value favorite. Despite being more than a field-goal home favorite, the Seahawks are being picked at a lower rate than the odds suggest.
They also get the benefit of extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 4, while Tampa Bay has to make the cross-country trip. In game-winner pools, Seattle offers clear leverage against the crowd.
We’ve identified four more value plays this week, including two other favorites drawing 35% or less of public picks — great spots to gain leverage in game-winner (and even some spread pools).
You can check out the full list, plus see all the pick popularity and odds data for yourself, in the PoolGenius Pick’em tool.
Get Your NFL Survivor and Pick’em Edge
Winning long-term in Survivor and Pick’em isn’t about chasing the obvious favorite every week — it’s about spotting value the public overlooks. That could mean saving a powerhouse like Buffalo for a future week in Survivor, or grabbing a lower-popularity favorite such as Seattle to gain leverage in Pick’em.
The PoolGenius tools let you customize your strategy to your exact pool format and rules. You’ll see win odds, pick popularity, and future value side by side, making it easy to find the smartest plays for both this week and the rest of the season.
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