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Updated NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Favored Heading Into Week 17

Dec 26, 2018 12:42 PM EST
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

  • Patrick Mahomes (-230) lost for a second consecutive week, but played well enough to boost his MVP odds.
  • Drew Brees (+145) locked up the top seed in the NFC, but his body of work over the past month is wildly underwhelming for an MVP candidate.
  • Philip Rivers (+2500) fell following a terrible performance against the Ravens which likely eliminated the Chargers from the AFC West title.

Last week, there were two MVP frontrunners — Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees — with Philip Rivers lurking just outside.

This week, there are only two players legitimately in the running, and the favorite’s chances were greatly helped by the poor performance of one of the other candidates in Week 16.

There are only a couple of remaining scenarios left to be played out and likely only a couple of ways the MVP can be won (or lost). Here are the latest odds:

Risers

Patrick Mahomes: -140 to -230 (+11.4% Implied Probability)

Despite losing a second consecutive game, Mahomes looked solid and can once again put the blame on others for the loss. His offense coughed up the ball twice, while his defense allowed more than 30 points for the third time in the team’s four losses.

Also helping Mahomes is the Chargers’ loss to Baltimore, which makes Kansas City’s division title chances infinitely greater.

Mahomes will need to play in Week 17 against the Raiders, at least until the Chiefs put the game out of reach, which could mean he plays the entire game.

Odds are that he hits the 50 touchdown plateau, which would make him just the third person to do so along with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

That, along with a division title and the 1-seed in the AFC, would make for pretty strong MVP résumé headlines.


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Russell Wilson: +10000 to +5000 (+1.0% IP)

On the Sunday Night Football broadcast, the announcers said to throw Wilson’s name into the MVP conversation. Okay, well, if by throwing his name into the conversation you mean increase his chances from 1% to 2%, then sure.

Wilson no doubt had a great game, but I don’t think the voters will forget his loss to the 49ers in Week 15 and his 72 passing yards in Week 14. Not exactly MVP-worthy.

Fallers

Drew Brees: -110 to +145 (-11.6% IP)

A month ago, this award was locked up by Brees in the minds of oddsmakers. He reached -500, but has been garbage ever since. Well, not garbage, but certainly not good.

The Saints secured the NFC’s 1-seed which is the most important thing for them, but does that mean Brees deserves the MVP? Anyone with a Brees ticket better hope Mahomes chokes vs. the Raiders.

Philip Rivers: +650 to +2500 (-9.5% IP)

After a stretch of big wins, Rivers and the Chargers finally met their match when the tough Ravens D came to town. Rivers threw a pick on the first play of the game and added another in a measly 10-point losing effort.

Rivers’ MVP case relied on the Chargers winning the AFC West, but now that looks unlikely.

Todd Gurley : +5000 to N/A (-2.0% IP)

Gurley hurt his value in two ways this past week:

This is largely a quarterbacks award and looks like it will remain that way this season.

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