The NFL is in prime head coach-firing season, as the league's worst teams begin to run out of hope and assess their options. One coach has already been let go, and it's almost certain that more will follow before the season's end.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for who will be out the door next, and as of this writing, Mike McDaniel's seat seems to be the hottest.
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The percentages you see below represent what the market roughly believes each candidate's chances are (the "spread" is the reason it adds up to more than 100%, and it's how market makers make money. Again, see our full Kalshi how-to guide for why and how this works.)
NFL Next Coach Fired Odds
Odds via Kalshi and update every hour.
NFL Next Coach Out Background
Where we're at now
As of this writing, only one head coach has been fired across the 32 NFL teams this season. Brian Callahan of the Titans was given the heave-ho after a 1-5 start to the season, as the team brought in senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy to replace him.
Callahan was less than two years into his initial five-year contract with Tennessee, which reportedly paid him around $3 million per season. Over his season-and-a-half run, the Titans went an abysmal 4-19, including a -69 point differential run in the first four weeks of this season.
Who could be next?
The head coaches that are usually the likeliest to get fired are those on struggling teams who have been around long enough to improve things themselves, but haven't.
The Dolphins' Mike McDaniel, the Falcons' Raheem Morris, and the Giants' Brian Daboll find themselves on top of the Kalshi odds chart as coaches who fit that description. Let's review their cases.
The case for Mike McDaniel
McDaniel was brought in by the Dolphins as a wunderkind-type coach before the 2022 season, marking his first head coaching role after four seasons helping build the offense of multiple successful San Francisco 49ers teams.
The rookie coach went 9-8 in his first season, then followed that up with an impressive 11-6 campaign in 2023, which featured a historic 70-20 win over the Broncos. Since then, it's been a steady decline for McDaniel's Dolphins, who finished 8-9 in 2024 and are 2-6 through eight weeks of the 2025 season.
McDaniel is not to blame for all of the team's misfortune; star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has suffered numerous injuries and heavy performance decline, and veteran wide receiver Tyreek Hill dislocated his knee against the Jets, ending his season early. There have been standouts here and there, but the front office has done a lackluster job of bolstering the core around the Tagovailoa-Hill connection.
Ultimately, McDaniel's coaching hasn't been able to make up the difference. A team that seemed primed to be in contention for many years to come now looks to be in need of a rebuild, and ownership will have to decide if it's McDaniel they want at the helm.
The case for Raheem Morris
The Falcons hired Morris from the Rams prior to last season, trying to recuperate from the failure that was the Arthur Smith era. Before the Rams job, Morris had served the Falcons in multiple roles, including defensive coordinator and interim head coach, from 2015 to 2020.
Since his arrival, the Falcons haven't done much of anything. They haven't been awful; through Week 8 of the 2025 season, Atlanta under Morris is 11-13, but that isn't likely what ownership was expecting.
Coming into 2024, the Falcons had a budding offensive core around running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London, and that offseason, they brought in veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to be the backbone of the next great Atlanta team.
Everything has gone south since then. Cousins was quickly benched for young backup Michael Penix Jr., and the team has fallen flat time and time again in close games, partially due to poor clock management from Morris. Don't be surprised if he gets let go.
The case for Brian Daboll
It was supposed to be a new era of success in East Rutherford when the Giants brought in Daboll and GM Joe Schoen from the perennially-contending Buffalo Bills, but instead, it has been more of the same malaise.
Daboll was credited with a lot of the Bills' success during his tenure as offensive coordinator, as he oversaw the development of superstar QB Josh Allen and called plays for him to near-perfection. New York had an improving QB in Daniel Jones on its roster, as well as a star running back in Saquon Barkley, so there was reason to believe the Daboll formula could work again.
Now, in his fourth season as head coach, Daboll doesn't have those two weapons, nor does he have much winning on his resume. The Giants made the playoffs in his first season at 9-7-1 before promptly being obliterated by the Eagles in the divisional round, and have gone 11-31 since. What is up for debate is how much blame should be placed on Daboll versus the front office, but what isn't up for debate is that something needs to change.
