The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) host the Miami Dolphins (6-7) on Monday Night Football on December 15. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast on ESPN.
The Steelers are 3-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread (Steelers -3), with the over/under set at 42.5 total points. Pittsburgh is a -180 favorite to win outright on the moneyline; Miami is +150 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Dolphins vs Steelers picks for Monday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total, and three player props.
Dolphins vs Steelers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Monday Night Football Odds
- Dolphins vs Steelers Moneyline: Dolphins +150, Steelers -180
- Dolphins vs Steelers Spread: Dolphins +3, Steelers -3
- Dolphins vs Steelers Total: 42.5
Dolphins vs Steelers odds via bet365
Dolphins vs Steelers Spread Prediction
Despite the majority of betting tickets on a streaking Dolphins team, oddsmakers have moved this line to Steelers -3 after opening it at 2.5 at almost every sportsbook.
The news that TJ Watt will not play on Monday night did not affect the line at all, which confirms my sentiment that the home team is the right side in this game.
Aaron Rodgers played his best game of the entire season last week in Baltimore. He completed four throws that traveled 20+ yards down the field, the most in a game this year for the future Hall of Famer.
Miami’s defense has played better in recent weeks, but its last three games have come against Marcus Mariota, Tyler Shough and Brady Cook.
Dolphins' head coach Mike McDaniel has converted this Miami offensive attack into an extremely run-heavy unit.
In the cold weather in Pittsburgh, I expect a similar game plan once again to try and protect Tua Tagovailoa from the elements. I also expect De'Von Achane to play, but his rib injury could limit his overall workload.
The Steelers have displayed the ability to limit very good rushing attacks this season, surrendering just 3.2 yards per carry to Jonathan Taylor and 3.1 yards per rush to the Bears just two weeks ago.
I am projecting an inspired performance in front of their home crowd similar to that of their dismantling of the Colts back in Week 9.
Pick: Steelers -3 (-115)
Dolphins vs Steelers Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The total for Monday Night Football has dropped as many as two points on some books, opening at 44.5 and now as low as 42.5.
There’s a lot of factors contributing to that move, including temperatures that are set to drop below 20 degrees during the game, and the left wrist injury that has limited Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers.
The weather could be especially impactful for the Dolphins and QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa owns a career 0-5 record when playing outside with temperatures below freezing, which makes sense for a Hawaii native who played college football in Alabama, and then was drafted by a team in Florida.
The best case scenario for the Dolphins is leaning on their run game to move the ball, but Pittsburgh is likely to load the box and dare Miami to throw deep.
Even if Miami finds some success on the ground, a run-heavy plan slows the game down and limits the number of possessions.
With Pittsburgh also likely to lean on the run due to a combination of the conditions, a desire to protect Rodgers and a game script that likely allows them to, this could be an extremely slow game overall.
For that reason, I’ll take any of the under 42.5s still available before those drop another point, with the best price -113 at BetRivers.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs Steelers Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown
This matchup is above average, and these odds are great.
Waddle has scored six TDs on the season, and since Tyreek Hill went down, Waddle has taken over Hill's role in the offense.
Waddle isn't a huge red-zone threat, but he does lead the team in red-zone targets and is always a threat to take one to the house from anywhere on the field.
The Dolphins can still technically make it into the playoffs. Even though it's extremely unlikely, I still expect them to play their normal game.
I have the true odds here around +180, making this a solid bet.
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+225)
Dolphins vs Steelers Player Prop Pick: Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards
The Dolphins are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback this season, and they rank 15th in EPA against the run. This is a positive pass-funnel matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.
The overall matchup is solid, but it gets even better when you break down how teams are attacking the Dolphins.
On the season, the Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers but the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends. This is great for the Steelers, who use a lot of 12-personnel. The tricky part is figuring out which tight end to trust.
I landed on Freiermuth, as he ran a route on 57% of dropbacks last week and only needs 16 yards to cash this prop.
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Dolphins vs Steelers Prop Bet: Riley Patterson Field Goals Made
My favorite prop in tonight's game is Patterson to make more than 1.5 field goals. He has accomplished this feat in eight of his last nine games.
The Dolphins don't struggle to move the football, but they do settle for a lot of field goals.
The Steelers don't have a good defense (13th in EPA allowed per dropback, 27th in EPA against the run).
So, the Dolphins should have no problem getting themselves into scoring position throughout this game.
Pick: Riley Patterson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-126)
