NFL Week 15 wraps up with the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Dolphins vs Steelers best bets, which includes six picks for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Steelers' RB Jaylen Warren in the prop market, as I believe there's an edge on his rushing attempts line.
Continue below for my top NFL player prop prediction for Monday Night Football on December 15.
NFL Player Prop Prediction: Jaylen Warren Rush Attempts
Part of my projections and prop selection process is keying in on underlying factors that point toward the side that I’m betting, which also means, when I’m watching the game, there’s almost always something I’m focusing on or rooting for on every single play.
Some people see this pick and think, “oh great, another boring prop where I just sit around all game and freak out every time Jaylen Warren gets a carry.” WRONG lol.
So, let me paint the picture here and tie my process to what to actually watch and root for.
For starters, when the Dolphins have the ball, we still get to “root” for the Warren prop.
Miami has shifted to a very run-heavy approach since Week 7, and it’s been working, as they’ve gone 5-2 over that stretch. I expect them to stick with that here.
What we’re rooting for is long Dolphins drives where they’re running the ball, using their quick-hitting passing game to keep the clock moving, and putting up points.
The matchup got even better with T.J. Watt ruled out, which should give Tua a much cleaner pocket than expected.
So, when Miami has the ball, we’re rooting for them to stick with the run, move the ball, and score.
I also think Miami is a sharp play at +3 in this game, so we’re rooting for them to cover and play with the lead, which will lead to a more pass heavy game script for the Steelers.
When the Steelers have the ball, we obviously want a more neutral or trailing game script, which is why we need the Dolphins doing their part.
Jaylen Warren’s early-down snap share and rushing share have dipped in three straight games, and last week he played 58% of early-down snaps and handled 57% of the RB rush attempts.
Kenneth Gainwell has been eating into his workload, especially on early downs, and more importantly for this market, in short-yardage situations. That trend could easily continue tonight.
There’s also a sneaky angle with 2nd-round rookie Kaleb Johnson, who’s had a disappointing rookie season but has mixed in a bit more lately. Any increase in his usage only helps this market.
On top of that, the Steelers will occasionally mix in DK Metcalf or even Jonnu Smith for a designed rush, which subtly chips away at Warren’s ceiling.
From a rooting-interest standpoint, there will be plenty of snaps where Warren isn’t even on the field. In those moments, we’re actively rooting for Gainwell, or even Kaleb Johnson, to be effective, because that likely earns them more snaps and more carries at Warren’s expense.
I’m projecting Warren closer to 12.2 rush attempts with around a 63% chance to stay under 13.5.
As I was writing this up, we got word he was questionable due to an illness. As of now, he’s expected to play, but I locked this in immediately in case the number moved, and posted my pick note explaining that.
The line has since dropped to 12.5, and I still show about a 55% chance he stays under 12.5.
However, with his rushing yards prop still sitting at 50.5 on FanDuel, I’d rather pivot there instead of the 12.5 attempts, as I project him closer to 45.5 yards with around a 59% chance to stay under.
Either way, the core of the bet is the same.
We’re rooting for the Dolphins to keep it close and cover +3 by sticking with a run-heavy approach, which limits Steelers' play volume, and for Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson to continue eating into Warren’s workload.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-101)
