Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 16 picks I made — for Eagles vs Commanders and Falcons vs Cardinals — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 16 Picks & Predictions
Eagles vs Commanders Over/Under Prediction
The Eagles might be the new Texans when it comes to betting the under. So, I'm just going to keep betting it.
Since their bye week, the Eagles have combined with their opponents for totals of 17, 25, 45, 39, 41, and now 31 in their shutout win over the Raiders in Week 15.
During that span, the under is perfect 6-0, with the Eagles averaging only 18.7 points per game in those contests, while combining with their opponents for an average of 33 points per game.
The under is now 9-5 in Eagles games this season, overall — and much of that can be attributed to the fact that their defense continues to dominate, highlighted in their most recent effort by holding the Raiders to 75 total yards on 42 plays, yielding a 26% success rate.
Meanwhile, the Commanders finally snapped their losing streak with a win over the Giants in Week 15, but this Washington team hasn't played great on either side of the ball as of late.
Marcus Mariota and the Commanders' offense racked up 41 points against the Raiders in his first start of the season. But since then, Washington has averaged only 22.3 points per game in the rest of his starts.
From Week 14 forward, the under is 101-72-4 (58%) in divisional games in outdoor conditions. When the total is between 43 and 47 in divisional games past Week 14, the under is 125-99-6 (56%).
Most books have already moved this number down to 44.5, but 40-44 are all key numbers. So, grab the under at 45.5 at BetMGM while you still can.
Pick: Under 45.5 (-112)
Falcons vs Cardinals Over/Under Prediction
The total for this game appears to be based on season-long, outdated versions of these two teams. But given their current statuses, this number is simply too low.
The Cardinals are playing at the fastest pace in the league with Jacoby Brissett at QB, yielding the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL in his starts.
Playing fast and throwing a bunch typically leads to high scoring games, and that's exactly what we've seen with the Cardinals and Brissett, with the over going 7-2 in the nine games he's played so far, with seven of those games totaling 50+ points at an average of 54.8 per game — which is almost a double-digit difference compared to the line for this matchup (45.5).
The Cardinals and Falcons both have roughly league-average defensive units. However, they are both fading. Brissett should be able to throw against a vulnerable Atlanta secondary, and the Falcons should find success on the ground against an Arizona defense that has been falling apart lately.
Cardinals' coach Jonathan Gannon has been very profitable when it comes to home overs throughout his career, sitting at 18-6 (75%) in those situations.
This total was at 45 this morning, but we're already seeing some 46.5s pop up at some books; 47 is an important key number, so make sure you grab it before it rises above that.
Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 16 Bets
- Eagles-Commanders Under 45.5 (-112)
- Falcons-Cardinals Over 45.5 (-110)
