Monday Night Football in Week 15 features an intriguing matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Dolphins vs. Steelers preview, which includes Doug Ziefel's spread pick for MNF.
For my top Dolphins vs. Steelers NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I'm highlighting Tua Tagovailoa, Riley Patterson and Jonnu Smith.
Tua Tagovailoa
More Than 0.5 Rushing Yards
Whether Tua likes it or not, he's going to be asked to drop back quite a bit in this frigid matchup, as the Steelers are likely to dare him to throw.
We know Tagovailoa has struggled mightily in cold weather, but most of his performance is judged by his passing. Still, we've seen him use his legs when needed this season.
Tagovailoa has had at least one rushing attempt in 10 of 13 games this season, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. That rate indicates he's more likely to run than not, yet his yardage total is as low as it can be.
Now, with T.J. Watt unlikely to play tonight, Tagovailoa should face less pressure. That could open up running lanes, and we likely need just one carry to eclipse this total, something Tagovailoa has done in eight of 13 games this year.
Riley Patterson
Less Than 7.5 Kicking Points
We stay on the Miami side of things but focus on their kicker, Riley Patterson. Patterson has been dynamite this season, making 95% of his field-goal attempts and yet to miss an extra point.
However, the elements are primed to cool off Patterson's hot streak. Freezing temperatures and wind gusts of up to 24 mph will make the real-feel temperature -7 degrees at game time.
The conditions should significantly impact the Dolphins' offense as a whole, and their team total is hovering around 19.5 points. That likely puts Patterson in line for two extra points and one made field goal.
As we went over, kicking will be no walk in the park tonight, and Patterson is bound to cool off along with the rest of the Dolphins offense.
Jonnu Smith
More Than 10.5 Receving Yards
Lastly, we switch sides and focus on Jonnu Smith, who has become somewhat overshadowed in the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh boasts a talented trio of tight ends, and Smith holds the lowest yardage total among them.
However, there's a big difference between perception and production, as Smith still has a clear role in the offense. He's averaged 3.4 targets per game, catching 68% of them at over six yards per catch.
With heavy gusts expected and a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that ranks 31st in receiving yards allowed to tight ends, we should see Smith get multiple looks in the short-to-intermediate range.
Back Smith with confidence tonight.
