Tonight, at the NFL Honors ceremony, the league will officially crown its Most Valuable Player. While the regular season felt like a wide-open race for months, the market has narrowed significantly as we head into the final hours before the announcement.
Kalshi’s prediction markets currently suggest that Matthew Stafford is the heavy favorite to take home the trophy. His "Yes" contracts are trading at over 85 cents, implying an 85%+ probability that the veteran will win his first career MVP tonight. However, in a market that stays open until the envelope is opened, there is still room for a last-minute shift.
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Live NFL MVP Odds for 2025-26 Regular Season
Here are the live NFL MVP odds at Kalshi:
NFL MVP Odds: The Final Two-Horse Race
The race has essentially been whittled down to two names: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.
The Case for Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
Stafford’s season was a masterclass in volume and efficiency. At 37 years old, he played some of the best football of his career, leading the NFL in both passing yards and touchdowns. His narrative is bolstered by a historic stretch from Weeks 7 to 10 where he threw 4+ touchdowns with zero interceptions in three straight games. For many voters, 46 touchdowns is a "magic number" that is hard to ignore.
The Case for Drake Maye (New England Patriots)
If there is an upset tonight, it will be the rookie. Drake Maye has defied every expectation, finishing the season with an incredible 72% completion rate and the league's highest QBR. While he doesn't have Stafford's touchdown totals, advanced metrics suggest Maye was actually more valuable to his team’s success, leading the league in EPA (Expected Points Added) per drop-back. At 13%, he remains the only live underdog in the field.
Even if Drake Maye doesn't win MVP tonight, there will be other opportunities to trade on him and the Patriots in Super Bowl 60.
More on NFL MVP Odds at Kalshi
Several early-season NFL MVP favorites fell by the wayside. Josh Allen, last year’s winner, saw his bid for a repeat fade down the stretch, while Jonathan Taylor, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts—all prominent in the Week 11 conversation—have seen their odds effectively evaporate.
Where to Watch the NFL Honors Ceremony
If you want to watch the NFL Honors Ceremony and see your NFL MVP odds predictions at Kalshi unfold, tune in at 9 p.m. ET or 6 p.m. PT. Streaming options include NBC, NFL Network, and Peacock.
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Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
