The NFL regular season is heading into its final third. Over the past 11 weeks, we’ve seen major surprises, disappointments, and rookies stepping up earlier than expected (hello, Jaxson Dart!). However, there's plenty of action still to come.
Unlikely MVP candidates have also emerged. And for those interested in placing real money on who will win the award, one platform allows you to stake real funds on the outcome in all 50 states. That platform is Kalshi, which blends traditional financial systems with innovative prediction markets.
Use the promo code below to claim $10 in bonus funds when signing up as a new user.
NFL MVP Odds for 2025-26 Regular Season
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the current favorite (35% chance). His team’s win over Seattle pushed the Rams to the top of the division and boosted the 17-year veteran’s odds.
Just behind him is Drake Maye (28%), thanks to a season that has propelled him into stardom. The third overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft has become one of the league’s best quarterbacks and is leading the league in several statistical categories.
In third place is Josh Allen, last year’s winner, at 15%. The Bills’ Week 10 loss to the Dolphins brought down his odds, but he’s back on the podium after playing a crucial role in the win over the Buccaneers, in which he threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more.
Jonathan Taylor was idle as the Indianapolis Colts had a bye in Week 11, leaving him steady in fourth at 12%. The Colts boast an impressive 8–2 record after their big win in Berlin over the Falcons, where Taylor rushed for 244 yards on 32 carries and scored three touchdowns.
The biggest drop among the top contenders belongs to Patrick Mahomes. A two-time MVP, his chances at a third award are slipping after Kansas City’s second straight loss, this time on the road against the Broncos’ mighty defense.
Jalen Hurts captured the 2025 Super Bowl MVP when his Philadelphia Eagles beat the Chiefs, though his chances of being this season’s most valuable player sit at just 3%. That's despite the Eagles soaring again this year with an 8–2 record and four straight wins since their unexpected Week 6 loss to the Giants.
At 2% or lower are Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold. The Seahawks quarterback’s chances plummeted after he threw four interceptions and completed 29-of-44 passes for 279 yards and no touchdowns in a crucial loss against the Rams.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
