With six teams on a bye and several key players questionable, it's not a week for the feint of heart.
I'll outline some of my favorite plays for the week here, but as we get a better picture of who's healthy and who's not, we'll be adding more picks on Twitter.
Last week was good to us. We went 26-4-1 over at Bet the Prop, and 7-0 in our article picks for The Action Network.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 169-81 (66%)
- Article picks : 24-6 (80%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 186-127 (59%)
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Lions WR Marvin Jones
Over 64.5 (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
A great spot for Marvin Jones just got better with reports that Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes, a familiar shadow for Jones, suffered a setback with his high ankle sprain on Friday.
Rhodes is a game-time decision, opening up the prospect of elevated efficiency to go along with expanded opportunity for Jones.
- Golden Tate was dominating looks with 27% target share compared to 18% for Jones, and Tate's departure opens up 9.9 targets per game.
- Jones was already leading the team with a 36% market share of Air Yards, and he'll certainly see some of Tate's 64 Air Yards per game.
Given Jones' game-breaking ability, even the tiniest uptick in targets could make a huge difference to his bottom line.
He shredded Minnesota for 109 yards on six receptions last year, and this figures to be another a high-paced affair.
I believe this line should be closer to 70 yards, and I'd freely play up to that number.
Falcons RB Ito Smith
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-125 @ 5 Dimes)
Washington is elite against the run — only the Saints have surrendered fewer rushing yards — but they're more vulnerable to receiving backs.
The Skins cede 41.8 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (11th best in the league), and six targets per game (16th best).
Smith hasn't exactly been lighting it up in that department, but 12.5 is such a tiny number that it won't take much to hit the over. Since Week 3, the Falcons' fourth-round pick is averaging 17.4 receiving yards per game on 2.3 receptions, a 40% difference between the betting total and a baseline expectation.
I'd play this number to 14.5 at these odds, and at the current line, I'd be willing to pay up to -133.
Tre'Quan Smith > Mohamed Sanu, Receiving Yards
(-133 @ Betlonline)
When attacking the head to head prop bets at Betonline, I like to pit receivers with solid floors and high ceilings against guys with low floors and limited upside.
Smith has been inconsistent, but his potential is massive in a matchup against a Rams pass defense that's yielded sizable lines to fellow outside wide receivers Davante Adams (133 yards), Stefon Diggs (123), Tyler Lockett (98), and Mike Williams (81).
- The rookie's snap count has increased in every game this year.
- Even if he doesn't have a big day, Smith shouldn't need anywhere near 80 yards to top Sanu.
The Falcons No. 3 wide receiver has topped 50 yards twice in seven games and has managed just two targets in three different games. It could again be that type of outing against a Washington defense that has yet to allow more than 56 yards to a slot receiver this year (Cole Beasley in Week 7).
Sean Koerner's projection of 47 yards to 41.65 in favor of Smith seals it, although I would not be willing to pay much more vig on this bet.
Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt
Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
Hunt has exactly five catches on six targets in each of his last three games, putting up yardage totals of 105, 55, and 36 for a 65-yard average. He ranks third in the league over that stretch, behind only Tarik Cohen and Saquon Barkley.
Last year, Hunt averaged 28.4 receiving yards per game and it appears he's regained that receiving role after a slow start to the year.
The matchup this week doesn't hurt.
- The Browns give up 48 receiving yards per game to running backs, 13th most in the league.
- Over eight games, five running backs have hit at least 38 receiving yards against Cleveland.
This bet has a rating of 6 in the Player Props Tool. I'd play this line to Koerner's projection of 33.7.
