Best Week 17 NFL Prop Bets: Believe in David Johnson’s Receiving
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31).
- There are three player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 17.
- This piece will focus on RB David Johnson, Bills WR Robert Foster and Raiders QB Derek Carr.
The final week of the regular season poses a unique challenge for prop bettors — matters of motivation and player usage will be fluid from one minute to the next, making projections a tricky task.
For that reason, there are considerably fewer lines being offered by sports books this week. So while there are still a few great Week 17 prop bets to attack, it’s not a week for betting volume.
It’s been a phenomenal regular season run for both the Fantasy Labs Props Tool and our Bet the Prop article picks.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 222-103 (66%)
- Article picks: 50-24 (68%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)
Cardinals RB David Johnson
Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
In their 15 games, the Seahawks have allowed 20 or more receiving yards to 17 different running backs. That includes the likes of LeGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard, and Kyle Juszczyk. Johnson himself doubled this line when these teams met in Week 4.
A weakness in general, the Seahawks have been particularly vulnerable to receiving running backs of late.
- Since Week 10, they’ve given up 87.6 receiving yards per game to opposing backs.
- On the season, they rank second last in that category with 60 per game.
The Seahawks’ slow pace and dominant possession numbers are concerns here. However, the Cardinals are 12-point road underdogs, setting up a spot where Johnson’s absolute floor is five targets.
With Sean Koerner projecting 27 yards on 3.5 receptions, this is one of the best bets in the props tool. I’d play the number to 24.5, and I’m likely playing the over on 2.5 receptions (-135) as well.