Best Week 16 Prop Bets: Michael Thomas Should Own the Superdome, More
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13).
- There are three player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 16.
- This piece will focus on three pass catchers: Saints WR Michael Thomas, Bills WR Robert Foster and Texans WR Demaryius Thomas.
Sunday brings a full slate of games, and while there’s solid value to be all over the board on the Player Props Tool, our best Week 16 prop bets will focus in on wide receivers.
In particular, there are three overs we’re eyeing from a trio of pass catchers who are all well positioned to exceed expectations this week.
Last week was lights out, as our article picks went 5-2 on Sunday, further padding our record on the season.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 214-100 (66%)
- Article picks: 46-23 (67%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 312-218 (59%)
Saints WR Michael Thomas
Over 6.5 Receptions (-150)
Like Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints’ offense, Michael Thomas has been much better under the lights of the Superdome. He averages 10 targets and 8.7 receptions at home, while putting up 7.1 receptions on 8.4 targets on the road.
Not only is he back at home, but he’s in a sensational spot in a game with the week’s second-highest total. Vegas sees a lot of scoring in this one, and the Steelers have been lit up in the slot over the past month.
- Julian Edelman: 7 catches-90 yards
- Keenan Allen: 14-148
- Seth Roberts: 5-76
- Emmanuel Sanders: 7-86
Thomas plays the majority of his snaps from the slot and will have ample opportunity to build on his 24 targets over the past two weeks.
Even at the juiced-up price of -150, this bet is a solid value, but I wouldn’t pay much more than that. If the number moves to seven receptions at a better price, I still like the play.
Bills WR Robert Foster
Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With Sean Koerner currently projecting Foster at 50.8 yards, this prop stands out as a phenomenal value. Watch for this number to creep up as the money starts to come in.
There’s plenty to like here, not the least of which is Foster going for at least 94 yards in four of his last five games.
- Over the past month, the rookie from Alabama is 11th in receiving yards and 10th in Air Yards.
- His average depth of target of 23.9 is second among all wide receivers over that span (with at least 10 targets), behind only David Moore.
- His Bills are double-digit underdogs on the road against the Patriots, setting up a an ideal game script for even more deep shots.
As Buffalo’s most explosive weapon, there is a risk that Bill Belichick will devote extra resources to slowing Foster, but between a plus game script and plenty of volume, this number is just too low.
I’d play it up to 47.5 receiving yards, and at this number, would be willing to pay the big up to -122.
Texans WR Demaryius Thomas
Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
I’m surprised to be getting the better price on the over (the under is currently listed at -120), especially considering Thomas’ growing role in the Texans’ passing game.
- He has four or more receptions in three of his last four games.
- Thomas also has a 20% share of team targets and 23% share of air yards over his last three, compared to 12% of targets and 16% of Air Yards in his first three games with Houston.
The increase in market share, combined with Houston’s recent commitment to the passing game, bodes well. After averaging 23 pass attempts between Weeks 8-12, Deshaun Watson putting up 32.3 attempts over his last three starts.
The loss of starting running back Lamar Miller for the one means the Texans may have to rely on Watson’s arm even more than they have been.
Playing this number to four receptions is fine, as is paying the juice up to -122.