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NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Chargers-Bills, 2 Other Week 2 Games

Sep 16, 2018 12:54 AM EDT

Jake Roth, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Keenan Allen

  • We've hit Week 2 of the season and a few teams have a chance to reverse their misfortunes from Week 1.
  • Sharp bettors like two early games in Week 2 including the Chargers' matchup with the Bills.

Week 2 of the NFL season is upon us and sharps are locked and loaded for another big Sunday.

What exactly is a sharp?

In betting circles, sharps (or wiseguys) are professional bettors who have a long track record of success, win at a high rate and bet large amounts on games.

They don’t bet based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven. Wiseguys bet numbers, not players and teams. When they get down hard on games, they force oddsmakers to move the lines.

After analyzing Sunday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three NFL bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 1:00 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET.

>> All data as of 10 p.m. ET. on Saturday September 15th. Download The Action Network App or check out our NFL live odds page to get real-time data and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

  • Sharp angle: Bills (moved from +8 to +7)
  • Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET

Public bettors are victims of recency bias. If a team played well and posted an impressive victory the week before, Average Joes will bet on them the following week, no questions asked. If a team got blown out and looked terrible, they’ll automatically fade them.

With the Bills getting demolished 47-3 in Week 1, the public sees an easy layup with the Chargers laying a touchdown on the road. However, wiseguys are buying low on Buffalo.

In one of the most lopsided games of the week, the Bills are only getting 19% of spread bets, yet they’ve moved from +8 to +7 across the market .

Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to give public Chargers backers a better number? Because sharps at several books all hammered Buffalo, triggering eight separate steam and reverse line moves.

The Bills also find themselves in a profitable historical spot. They fit the 80/20 Rule: teams getting 20% or less bets have gone 113-91 ATS (55.4%) since 2005.

Additionally, dogs off a blowout of 20 points or more have gone 266-218 ATS (55%) the following week. Buffalo also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Against the Public After Bad Offensive game (61.7% ATS since 2005).

An added bonus for wiseguys in the Bills Mafia: the Chargers are a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. game, a difficult spot historically (fading road favorites in this spot has gone 61% ATS since 2005).

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

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