A few days ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs looked dead as a dodo. The Buds trailed 3-1 in the series against the Bruins — one of the strongest teams in the National Hockey League. The result looked inevitable when the Leafs headed back to Boston for a must-win Game 5. Not so fast.

Toronto ripped off a pair of wins to force a Game 7.

How did we get here? And how can we use what’s happened so far in this series, on the ice and in the sportsbooks, to help us shape a good play for tonight’s Game 7 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN). Let’s dive in.

The Market

The B’s are, unsurprisingly, a decent favorite to win the game. At the time of this writing, the books are slapping a -175 price tag on Boston, while you can find Toronto at +155. That line implies the Bruins have a 63.6% chance of winning and the Leafs have a 39.2% chance. Interestingly, the Bruins’ average closing price in their first three home games was -174, so we’ve got a pretty clear view of how the market views these teams in Boston.

Before we dive further into tonight’s numbers, here’s a quick recap of the closing number (according to the Action App) for each of the first six games.

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