The Detroit Red Wings (17-11-3) and Edmonton Oilers (13-11-6) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-120o / +100u). The Oilers are a -180 favorite to win outright, while the Red Wings are +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Red Wings vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Red Wings vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Red Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | +150 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -180 |
- Red Wings vs. Oilers Spread: Red Wings +1.5 (-165), Oilers -1.5 (+140)
- Red Wings vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Red Wings vs. Oilers Moneyline: Red Wings +150, Oilers -180
Red Wings vs. Oilers Preview
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back, which is the only reason it is listed at +150 on the moneyline. That said, the Wings are still the superior team in this matchup.
This season, Detroit ranks sixth in expected goal share, which is a product of both strong offensive and defensive play. Entering this matchup, the Wings rank fifth in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 16th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
Detroit outranks Edmonton in all three key analytical categories. Meanwhile, goaltender Cam Talbot is slated to go against his former club.
Talbot has fared well against the Oilers over the years, posting an impressive .911 save percentage and a 2.92 goals-against average in 12 meetings.
Edmonton Oilers
Across the ice, goaltender Stuart Skinner looks to avoid another poor start. Skinner has surrendered four or more goals in four of his past eight starts, posting a 3-4-1 record with an .880 save percentage over that stretch.
These woes are likely to continue against Detroit, a team he struggled against in their previous meeting this season. In that outing, Skinner surrendered three goals on 24 shots for an .875 save percentage en route to a 4-2 loss.
Unlike previous years, Skinner is dealing with particularly poor play in front of him. Surrendering high-danger scoring chances at a high rate, Edmonton ranks 24th in xGA/60.
Subsequently, the Oilers rank 21st in expected goal share.
Red Wings vs. Oilers Prediction
There is an argument to be made that the Wings are the superior team all over the ice. They outrank the Oilers in expected goals both offensively and defensively, while Talbot has a stronger track record than Skinner in this specific matchup.
Detroit entering this contest on the second half of a back-to-back is certainly a cause for concern, which justifies its underdog price. However, +150 is too wide a number and an overadjustment to that situation.
Pick: Red Wings ML (+150, bet365 | Play to +140)
