The Edmonton Oilers (14-11-6) and Toronto Maple Leafs (14-11-5) meet in an NHL duel tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5. The Oilers are a 56 cents favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are 45 cents to pull off the upset on Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Odds
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Preview
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton had made waves the other day by trading for goaltender Tristan Jarry and sending Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak packing to Pittsburgh.
Skinner had the chance to be a nice story as the Edmonton native, but in the end, the amount of chances he was getting, he was using them all up.
Jarry, for as much flack as he’s gotten throughout his career, has actually been pretty serviceable this season. For a team like the Penguins that was icing a bottom-10 5-on-5 defense, Jarry was posting a .909 SV% and a 9.8 GSAx.
And what do you know, Jarry will be taking the crease tonight for the first time as an Oiler.
Luckily for the Oilers, they do have one of the best power plays in the NHL, scoring at a second-highest 32% clip.
With the offensive powerhouse of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, along with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, it’s hard to bet against them, even if they haven’t had a great season.
Perhaps the trade revitalizes this team. Edmonton has been slogging along all season, but as typical slow starters, it was to be expected. It just may be difficult tonight since it’s not the greatest team on the road.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto underwent one of the more difficult road trips this season, and it came out of it pretty unscathed. In a six game trip, the Maple Leafs walked away with a 4-2 record, then proceeded to follow it with points in three straight games.
The Leafs are a dangerous group, and the crazy thing is that Auston Matthews hasn’t been fully unleashed yet. It’s mainly been the William Nylander and John Tavares Show, followed by Matthew Knies – all averaging over a point per game.
Currently though, Nylander is a game time decision due to an illness, though I’d probably expect him to play all things considered.
Even though Toronto’s been winning games, and have a ton of weapons, its even strength play has been pretty mediocre. Over the past three weeks, the Leafs played to a middling 49.5 xGF% and a 2.78 xGA/60.
Neither of those numbers are overly bad or good, but if they’re still winning games at that pace, it’s a cause to be bullish on this team.
However, what;s mind blowing is how inept the power play is. For years, the Leafs have dominated the power play, but now they’re playing to an abhorrent 14.5% success rate – something no one expected.
For goaltending, both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have been out for a bit, which has opened the door for Dennis Hildeby to be the man in charge. Hildeby surprisingly has been a beauty, playing to a .933 SV% and 11.0 GSAx.
Oilers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
As I look at these lines, one of the plays that I’m incredibly intrigued by is the over. Going over 6.5 goals is not my favorite play of all time, but here we have two very high-powered teams go at it.
As legit as Hildeby has been in six starts, he’s still unreliable to me. Going against McDavid and Draisaitl, and a legitimate power play, is also cause for concern if you’re the Leafs.
Not only that, over the past three weeks, Edmonton’s 5-on-5 game has slowly risen in the ranks.
Toronto’s firepower is self-explanatory. It may not have Mitch Marner anymore, but the Leafs still have a strong core.
Toronto hasn’t found itself in high-scoring games as of late, but Edmonton sure has, and thanks to a Connor McDavid goal at the literal last second against the Sabres, I managed to cash out on a very profitable over bet.
You can’t count these teams out to go shot-for-shot, especially with shoddy goaltending. Take the over here.
Pick: Over 6.5
