Four NHL Prop Bets for Tuesday: Burns Over/Under 4.0 Total Shots on Goal?
Tuesday night features a full slate of NHL action, with nine games starting at 7:00 p.m. ET or later. There are plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are four props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 7:30, and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Flyers G Petr Mrazek under 28.0 total saves (-115)
7:00 p.m. ET
Over the past month, the Islanders have caused opposing goaltenders to accrue an average of 29.33 saves per game, but a Flyers goalie has fallen below 28 saves in 12 of 16 games (26.38 average) over that same time period. Mrazek’s 3.07 goals against average and .881 save percentage don’t inspire confidence from a ‘real hockey’ perspective, but Philly’s ability to limit shots on goal makes under 28 saves a reasonable lean against an Islanders team in the bottom half in Corsi For over the past month.
Lightning G Andrei Vasilevskiy under 30.5 total saves (-115)
7:30 p.m. ET
Attacking goaltenders with the under in the early set of games could be the play, as this line looks equally egregious with Vasilevskiy facing Boston. Both the Bruins and Lightning are in the bottom five in Expected Corsi For, so we can project this game to be played at a slower pace with limited shot attempts. Of the teams on the slate, Boston has attempted the fifth-fewest shots over the past month (44.92), and Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest (41.78).
Stars W Alexander Radulov over 3.0 shots on goal (+100)
10:30 p.m. ET
Radulov’s shots per game have spiked from 2.66 over the past year (89th percentile) to 3.67 over the past month (98th), so regression could be imminent, but from a matchup perspective that regression is unlikely to occur tonight against a Sharks team in the 86th percentile in shot attempts allowed. Despite the Stars’ bottom-two Corsi For over the past month, Radulov individually has had over 3.0 shots on goal in each of his past five games.
Sharks D Brent Burns under 4.0 shots on goal (-115)
10:30 p.m. ETl
We discussed Burns today on Inside the Lab, and the Stars present a tough matchup: Of all teams on the slate, they have allowed the second-fewest shot attempts over the past year. In the 98th percentile in shots over the past month, Burns has averaged 3.64 shots per game, and although he carries immense upside — he has two double-digit shot games over the past month — he has also registered four or fewer shots in 11 of his past 14 appearances. This looks like a prime spot to attack a floor game from Burns with the under in a tough matchup.
Pictured above: Brent Burns