Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Predators predictions and NHL picks.
The Colorado Avalanche (21-2-6) and Nashville Predators (10-14-4) will conclude the NHL's 10-game Tuesday night slate. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EST at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are priced at +125 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-110o / -110u). The Avalanche are priced at -205 to win outright, while the Predators are priced at +170 to pull off the upset.
Avalanche vs. Predators Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 6 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Predators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 6 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Avalanche vs. Predators Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+125), Predators +1.5 (-150)
- Avalanche vs. Predators Over/Under: 6 (-110o / -110u)
- Avalanche vs. Predators Moneyline: Avalanche -205, Predators +170
Avalanche vs. Predators Preview
Colorado Avalanche
Though the Avalanche own the best record in hockey at 21-2-6, the Dallas Stars are still nipping at their heels in a top-heavy Central Division, sitting just three points back entering Tuesday's slate. That should provide some incentive for Colorado to continue its dominant level of play.
Though the Stars are still right there, it's pretty obvious that the Avalanche have been the much superior team, with a +48 goal differential and 19 regulation wins. They also rank first with an expected goal share of 59.81%. In a year where the rest of the league has been more competitive, the Avs are now priced at just +350 to win the Stanley Cup, which is the shortest number I can remember at this point in the season.
As a bettor, it becomes important to consider that the Avalanche are rightfully being power-rated as the top team in hockey when evaluating game-by-game prices. Colorado is at a scheduling disadvantage in this matchup, playing its third game in four nights, and it could be viewed as somewhat of a sleepy spot.
There really hasn't been any relent in the Avalanche's game of late, as they are 8-1-1 over the last ten games and lead the league in expected goal share in that span. They have confirmed that Scott Wedgewood (.920 SV%, 2.07 GAA) will start in goal, and aside from a potential absence from Martin Necas — who is a game-time decision with illness — they are essentially at full health.
If Necas were to miss this game, backing whichever skater is elevated onto the top line alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Artturi Lehkonen could be a good strategy. However, oddsmakers have gotten drastically sharper at handling such situations in recent years, and it’s unclear whether it would be Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin or Ross Colton overtaking that role.
Nashville Predators
As the Avalanche opened at -225 and have ticked down to -205, sharp money has seemingly come in on the 32nd-ranked Predators to earn a victory in this spot, given that Necas's potential absence is the only noteworthy lineup news.
Given that the Avalanche have looked comparably dominant of late, as they have all season, the case that this game could be slightly closer than the oddsmakers' opening prices suggested comes down to the fact that the Predators have been in slightly better form recently, with a 5-5-0 record over their last ten matchups.
The Predators have benefitted from captain Roman Josi's return to the lineup, and Josi has been impactful, recording five points and averaging 23:46 of ice time in eight games following a month-long absence. Still, over those eight games, the Predators hold an expected goal share of 44.9% and allow 29.87 shots against per 60.
One of the few positives for Nashville this season has been the play of 23-year-old Luka Evangelista, who ranks second on the team with 19 points in 27 games played. Evangelista has put up 2.65 points per 60 this season, which ranks second only to talented rookie Matthew Wood, and he also holds a +5.7 expected goals above replacement rating.
There's a pretty strong argument that Evangelista has been worthy of more than 16:00 of ice time this season, his current average. Over the last eight games, he's averaged 17:12 and recorded nine points in that span. Evangelista is set to skate on the top line alongside Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos in Tuesday's matchup, a unit that has scored 4.42 goals per 60 in 54.3 minutes together this season.
Juuse Saros is expected to start in goal for the Predators. Saros holds a +2.2 GSAx rating and a .893 save percentage in 22 appearances this season.
Avalanche vs. Predators Prediction
The Predators have offered a slightly higher level of play recently with a 5-5-0 record over their last ten games, and there are some inklings that this may not be the best spot to target the league-best Avalanche. However, I just can't get there on backing the Predators in this matchup, especially after the line movement.
This does look like a good spot to back the red-hot Evangelista to record a point at +125. The Avalanche are the best defensive team in the league, and this is a tough environment for Evangelista to continue his recent production, but given the +125 price tag and his expected usage on the top line, we can live with the matchup for a skater who has looked dangerous and recorded points in six of his last seven games.
Pick: Luke Evangelista Over 0.5 Points
