Penguins in Tough Spot vs. Capitals
The Washington Capitals are in a familiar spot. They lead the Metropolitan Division in April, they will have home-ice advantage in at least Rounds 1 and 2 of the NHL playoffs, and they are answering questions about whether this will finally be the year they shake the 'can't do it in the playoffs' label.
And yet, something feels different this year.
The lack of hubbub surrounding Washington this season could be a good thing. After back-to-back years of entering the playoffs as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup, the Capitals are being overlooked this year, despite what will almost certainly be a fourth-straight 100-point season.
Like Washington, Pittsburgh is also entering April without much buzz. Unlike Washington, this is nothing new for the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions. In fact, this is kind of what the Pens do. They lay in the weeds and then the next thing you know Sidney Crosby is skating around the rink holding a trophy above his head.
There's a good chance that, for the third year in a row, Pittsburgh and Washington will meet in the second round of the NHL playoffs. The Penguins have won those two matchups, as well as another second-round dust-up in 2009. They are Washington's bogey team and there's nothing Caps fans would like more than to rid themselves of this Pittsburgh voodoo.
Which is why Sunday night's tilt is so important. The Penguins come into the game three points behind Washington, which has a game in hand, with three games to go. A loss against Alex Ovechkin and his gang of playoff underachievers all but assures Washington of a third-straight division crown and home-ice advantage for the looming second-round ritual.
High stakes, baby. High stakes.
Washington Capitals (+105) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) | O/U: 6
7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports
Schedule Notes: This is a really tough spot for the Penguins. Not only is it the second game of a back-to-back, this is also Pittsburgh's third game in four days and their fourth in six nights. Washington was off yesterday after losing to Carolina on Friday night.
Don't Call Him A Back-up: There are a couple of big names in danger of missing this one, including Derick Brassard and T.J. Oshie, but the most important injury concern could be Philipp Grubauer. The Capitals' "back-up" goaltender injured himself on March 27. Even though he's behind Braden Holtby on the depth chart, Grubauer has been Washington's most reliable goalie this year. The 26-year-old German ranks second in the NHL with a 15.96 Goals Saved Above Average (the number of goals saved compared to a hypothetical league average goaltender, also known as GSAA) and fifth with a 93.88 even-strength save percentage. UPDATE: Grubauer will start for Washington.
Voodoo: The goaltending matchup will likely be Grubauer vs. Casey DeSmith. DeSmith has been a capable deputy when called upon this year, posting a 2.92 GSAA and a 92.59 even-strength save percentage, which is 1.2 basis points higher than his expected save percentage.
Different, but the Same: Even though they boast similar win-loss records, Pittsburgh and Washington do things very differently. The Penguins are a positive possession team: Their 52.35 Corsi For % (CF%) ranks eighth in the NHL, while the Capitals rank in the bottom-10 with a 48.09 CF%.
Furthermore, the Penguins do a much better job than the Capitals at creating and preventing scoring chances at even strength. Pittsburgh creates an average of 30.97 scoring chances per 60 minutes while Washington averages 28.73. Defensively, the Pens allow 28.11 scoring chances against per 60 minutes and the Caps give up an average of 31.01 — which ranks fourth-to-last in the NHL.
Not So Great Expectations: Here are the bottom five teams in expected goals (xG) differential this season: Buffalo, Ottawa, New York Islanders, Washington and Arizona. Four of those teams are headed for the lottery. The other is on the cusp of wrapping up a division title. Currently, the Capitals have a -20.84 xG differential. Their actual 5v5 goal differential is +12. That's a big gap.
So how is Washington succeeding despite their poor peripherals? Well, they are a very talented team. The Caps rank third in the NHL with an 8.98 shooting percentage. If you look at all situations, Washington ranks second in the NHL with a 10.7 shooting percentage.
All stats are at 5-on-5 unless otherwise noted
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
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