In this column we talk about a lot of different stats, like Corsi, expected goals for/against, etc. Betting on sports is all about gathering data and using it to draw conclusions, so it’s only fair to shed light on some great work. Sean Tierney, @ChartingHockey on Twitter, does a fantastic job of taking a lot of information and turning it into these easily digestable charts. They’re easy on the eye and incredibly useful to get an idea of the bigger picture in the NHL.
Last night’s action: With all that was going on in the sports world, the NHL’s wild Saturday night went largely undetected. We ended up with an even 3-3 split, but thanks to three of our four underdogs coming through for us ended up on the plus side of the ledger.
The Red Wings and Oilers are an interesting case study. The Red Wings’ actual results are basically on par with their underlying numbers, but the Oilers are underperforming big time. The Oil should see some positive regression at some point, but still this number is inflated. Edmonton probably wins this matchup 60 percent of the time, so the number is off and means the value is with the visiting Red Wings.
The Avalanche visit the Islanders after winning in a shootout against the Flyers last night. It’s another situation where the fact that a team is on a back-to-back has thrown the number out of whack. You’ll lose more often than you win, but there’s a lot of value on the Avs in Brooklyn.
Both Chicago and Montreal are on night two of a back-to-back for their matchup on Sunday. Neither team has announced a starting goaltender, but assuming they go with their backups, we’ll see Anton Forsberg for Chicago and Charlie Lindgren for Montreal. This game should have a lot of back and forth given the way both of these teams play. Whether they go with Crawford or Forsberg, the Hawks are a decent price.
Picks: Red Wings +175, Avalanche +203, Blackhawks -118
Season to date: 32-37, -0.16u