The Florida Panthers (22-16-3) and Toronto Maple Leafs (19-15-7) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Panthers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-142o / +116u). The Panthers are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Maple Leafs are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Pick
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 5.5 -142o / +116u | -125 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -235 | 5.5 -142o / +116u | +105 |
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+190), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-235)
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under: 5.5 (-142o / +116u)
- Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Moneyline: Panthers -125, Maple Leafs +105
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Preview
Florida Panthers
Perhaps enough time has passed for the Panthers to have gotten over that embarrassing loss in the Winter Classic, because they came out beating the Avalanche 2-1 at home.
That’s one way to answer.
Even before the Winter Classic, I have been pretty encouraged by Florida’s game. Its 5-on-5 play has been just fine at a 50.66 xGF%, but soon enough, Matthew Tkachuk is going to come back and I expect the Panthers’ expected goals number to rise.
Along with Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart, who both average well over a point per game, adding Tkachuk to the mix should be very scary for the rest of the league.
Over the past 10 games, Florida’s penalty kill has been stellar, succeeding at a fourth-best 82.5% rate, which should be beneficial because even though Toronto’s power play has not been good all season, it’s starting to get hot.
There is a big problem, though, as defenseman Seth Jones, who was recently announced to Team USA, will be out for a few weeks with an injury, which means Donovan Sebrango will likely be taking over for him.
Against Colorado, Daniil Tarasov started for the Cats, so I would assume that Sergei Bobrovsky gets the nod.
Bobrovsky, for the reputation he has as an elite netminder, has been far from it this season. And in his defense, he keeps getting older and continues to play an outrageous amount of hockey. This season, he’s playing to an .885 SV% and in the past 10 games, a -3.1 GSAx.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs fell to the Islanders in overtime in a back-and-forth battle. However, one of the highlights of that matchup was seeing captain Auston Matthews become the all-time leading goal scorer in Maple Leafs history.
I was wondering when Matthews was going to heat up, because he was invisible at the start of the season. Now, in the past two games, Matthews potted five goals.
Since December 20, Toronto has been playing just .3 points better than the Panthers at 5-on-5, so essentially playing near the same pace.
As I mentioned earlier, the Leafs are starting to find their groove on the power play, as they’ve converted at a 45% clip in their past six games. With a red-hot power play going against a red-hot penalty kill, that will certainly be something to watch out for.
Heading into the season, I was fairly bullish on Toronto’s goaltending – something that the Leafs had lacked for years.
I’ve been a fan of Joseph Woll ever since he came into the league, but ever since the holiday break, he’s been getting lit up like a Christmas tree.
He’s been playing to a -2.6 GSAx and an .861 SV% in that timespan, and he already upset coach Craig Berube due to a costly mistake against the Islanders.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
I don’t think there’s a better game to have on TNT tonight. Toronto and Florida are always must-see television.
With how well Toronto has been playing in this recent stretch, but how poorly Woll has been, I’m very curious to see how this pans out.
Ultimately, I think this could be a shootout. Not in a post-overtime sense, but I think we’ll see a lot of goals.
The Leafs are really hitting their stride on the scoring front, and with Matthews becoming a force, paired with Bobrovsky not being on his game, it could spell trouble for Florida.
Of course, with Matthews scoring five goals in two games, he becomes a candidate for regression, but I don’t see that happening. The whole first half of the season has been a regression for him, so I think we’ll see him get on the board again.
I’ll be backing the over and a Matthews goal, and if you want to parlay, it’ll be +290 on bet365.
Pick: Over 6 (-105) | Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (+100) | +290 Parlay
