The Dallas Stars (25-10-8) and Washington Capitals (22-15-6) meet in an exciting NHL matchup on Wednesday evening. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Capitals are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o/-120u). The Capitals are a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Stars are +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Capitals predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Capitals Odds, Pick
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +115 |
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -135 |
- Stars vs. Capitals Spread: Stars +1.5 (-220), Capitals -1.5 (+180)
- Stars vs. Capitals Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o/-120u)
- Stars vs. Capitals Moneyline: Stars +115, Capitals -135
Stars vs. Capitals Preview
Dallas Stars
After suffering a 6-3 beatdown Tuesday evening in Carolina, the Stars will be looking to snap a six-game losing skid in this matchup. All NHL teams do suffer through some ups and downs throughout the 82-game slog that is the regular season, but what the Stars are going through may be deeper than that.
The Stars have generally not looked as dominant as their record suggests in even-strength play this season, at least relative to their standing as a true Stanley Cup contender. Dallas leads the league with a shooting percentage of 13.47% and has received excellent goaltending from its tandem of Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith.
While most would always have agreed that the Stars' deep and highly talented offensive core meant they were a likely candidate to finish chances at a high rate, they have not often looked entirely well-rounded.
Over the last ten games, the Stars hold an expected goal share of 46.44% and have allowed 3.91 xGA/60. There are intricacies to hockey that analytics can miss, but it has been fairly clear watching the team of late that they are relying pretty heavily on a combination of elite finishing upside and quality goaltending in order to find success.
Dallas does rank second with a power play success rate of 30% this season, which is not overly surprising given the wealth of elite talent skating together on the top unit. It's a strength that could be important in this back-to-back spot, versus a Capitals side that has killed off just 76.9% of penalties taken this season.
DeSmith did come into Tuesday's game in relief of Oettinger, stopping 16 of 17 shots faced, but will presumably still receive what was set to be his start Wednesday.
DeSmith has been one of the best "backup" options in the league dating back to the start of last season, with a +26.0 GSAx rating in 43 appearances. He holds a .913 save percentage and +10.1 GSAx in 16 appearances this year, alongside a record of 9-2-4.
Washington Capitals
In a number of ways, head coach Spencer Carbery's side features the exact opposite strengths of the Stars. Carbery's side has generally offered well-structured team play at even strength and is led by a deep, mobile defensive core capable of moving pucks up the ice quickly and getting involved in the offensive attack.
But as Carbery has discussed numerous times in pressers this season, the Capitals' roster lacks the kind of elite offensive talents that are featured prominently in Dallas' top six in skaters such as Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston.
Washington really has to grind its way to wins and offensive production, given its 30th-ranked power play success rate and lack of the kind of game-breaking talent that can steal wins on nights where the overall team is not at its sharpest.
While Washington's play at even strength has been fundamentally sharp overall this season, it has started to allow a lot more quality scoring chances against of late. Over the last ten games, the Capitals have allowed 3.81 xGA/60 and 4.20 goals against where it counts.
Pierre-Luc Dubois was arguably the Capitals' most important forward last season, given how dominant he was defensively in head-to-head matchups versus opposing top units. While Justin Sourdif has done a fantastic job overtaking Dubois' role as the second-line center, it is still clear that Dubois' return is critical, given that even despite Sourdif's play, the team is not receiving great play down the middle.
The Capitals may also remain without Tom Wilson in Wednesday's matchup, who has been the team's best forward this season. Aliaksei Protas is also listed as day-to-day and has been another important skater for the Capitals this season.
Logan Thompson is expected to get the start in goal in this matchup. Thompson has played to a +15.9 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 30 appearances this season and rightfully forced his way onto Canada's Olympic roster as a result.
Stars vs. Capitals Prediction
The Stars' six-game losing skid may be a little more than a simple blip on the radar, as they have not carried play at the level that you would expect considering their record and +26 goal differential this season. Still, as someone who's been keen to point out the Stars' weaknesses this season, they still have numerous strengths that make them an appealing underdog in this matchup.
The Capitals side has been allowing a lot of high-quality chances defensively of late, and that's a big concern entering a matchup versus a potent Stars side with a ton of firepower. The Stars also have the second-best power play in the league, as noted, while in a smaller sample size, DeSmith has arguably performed as effectively as Thompson in goal.
For as low as I've been on the Stars this season relative to how mainstream NHL media rate them, their roster and overall results still suggest they are the superior of these two sides even if they haven't been in form of late. While it is a back-to-back spot, at +115 I think we are getting a good price to back the Stars snapping their six-game losing skid in this matchup.
Pick: Stars Moneyline +115 (bet365; play to +110)
