Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Neal Over/Under 3.0 Total Shots on Goal?
James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
The only NHL game Monday is Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, but there should still be plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Golden Knights-Jets game, which starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Golden Knights G Marc-Andre Fleury over 28.5 total saves (-115)
8 p.m. ET
Fleury has failed to accumulate 29 saves in each of his last three games — a mark he reached in his previous seven — but Winnipeg boasts an above-average 48.2 Expected Corsi For today. The Golden Knights have allowed more shots per game (33.6) in the playoffs than any remaining team has, so Game 1 (with its 26 shots) looks more like an anomaly than a sign of what’s to come. In the second round, Winnipeg caused Nashville goaltenders to accrue 30.0 saves per game and Vegas averaged 33.3 saves per game against San Jose. Fleury owns a 32.0 Save Prediction in our Models.
Golden Knights W James Neal over 3.0 shots on goal (-140)
8 p.m. ET
“Real Deal” Neal had zero shots in Game 1, but he was held without a shot only twice during the regular season. He is still averaging 4.3 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 3.00 over the past year (93rd). The Jets offer a favorable shooting matchup over the past month (96th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and after accruing just 21 shots in Game 1 the Golden Knights will need to get more pucks to the net tonight if they want to tie the series. Neal should be a healthy contributor and looks like a strong value with three or more shots in eight of his last 10 games.
Pictured above: James Neal