The Washington Capitals (18-10-4) and Minnesota Wild (19-9-5) will face off Tuesday evening in an exciting NHL matchup. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Wild are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-130o / +110u). The Wild are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Capitals vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks.
Capitals vs. Wild Odds, Pick
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -265 | 5.5 -130o / 110u | -105 |
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +215 | 5.5 -130o / 110u | -115 |
- Capitals vs. Wild Spread: Capitals +1.5 (-265), Wild -1.5 (+215)
- Capitals vs. Wild Over/Under: 5.5 (-130o / +110u)
- Capitals vs. Wild Moneyline: Capitals -105, Wild -115
Capitals vs. Wild Preview
Washington Capitals
Spencer Carbery was a deserving Jack Adams winner last season, after his Washington Capitals overachieved by leading the Eastern Conference with a total of 111 points. It was widely expected that the Capitals would regress this season, to the point that among mainstream NHL media analysts they became a trendy pick to miss the playoffs altogether.
The Capitals likely won't finish close to last season's mark of 111 points, but they look to be one of the more formidable sides in the Eastern Conference, and it once again seems that Carbery's sharp tactical approach is a major reason why. The Capitals currently hold the best goal differential in the Eastern Conference and rank fifth in even-strength expected goal share.
While Washington has some high-end pieces, it still lacks truly elite offensive talent relative to the majority of other comparably formidable sides. It attacks as a five-man unit as well as any team in the league, with plenty of pretty interchange sequences in the offensive zone and a defensive core that does a great job of helping to power possession with strong puck movement.
The Capitals' greatest weaknesses have been special teams and the 3-on-3/shootout novelty settlements, where they have just one win in five tries.
Washington's power play caught fire recently after rookie Ryan Leonard was promoted to the top unit, but in three games following Leonard's injury on December 5th in Anaheim, their power play has succeeded on just 7.7% of opportunities.
It does seem a little odd that Ethen Frank has overtaken Leonard's role thus far, but he is in some regards the team's closest comparable skater in being a speedy right-shot who's strong at gaining the offensive zone.
Carbery's side has been quite consistent over the last two seasons, losing more than two games in a row just twice over the last 114 games.
Though the losses of Pierre-Luc Dubois, who was excellent last season, as well as Leonard, do hurt, the addition of Justin Sourdif has proven highly significant, as he has performed surprisingly well in an important role on what has been a highly effective second line.
Among offensive trios that have spent over 125 minutes together this season, the Capitals' second line of Sourdif, Tom Wilson and Aliaksei Protas ranks fourth in the NHL with an expected goal share of 62.3% and has done so while receiving tough usage versus opposing top lines.
Carbery will not have the luxury of a last change in this road matchup, but he will certainly try to use the trio as much as possible against Kirill Kaprizov's unit, which is currently the Wild's only truly formidable offensive trio.
Paying attention to the official confirmation of Washington's starting goaltender is important in this matchup, as it does seem possible that backup Charlie Lindgren could start as opposed to Vezina favorite Logan Thompson, given that Lindgren has not played since December 3rd in San Jose.
After posting some poor surface-level stats early in the year, which were marred by soaking all seven goals of a back-to-back matchup that Carbery dubbed the Capitals' worst game of the season, Lindgren has played quite well in posting a .912 save percentage over his last five games played.
Minnesota Wild
Though the Wild have had some strong teams in recent years, they've never truly been a Stanley Cup contender. GM Bill Guerin decided that now is the time to enter a full-fledged win-now mode last Friday, as he sent two high-upside youngsters, as well as a first-round pick, to the Canucks to bring in Quinn Hughes.
There is no disputing that the trade greatly improves the Wild's chances of finally authoring a deep playoff run, as Hughes has been one of the best skaters in the NHL when healthy over the last two seasons and probably didn't get enough credit for his dominant efforts on an awful Canucks team a year ago.
While Hughes is a major addition and the type of skater that is almost never available via trade, Minnesota's offensive core is still drastically worse than high-powered division rivals Colorado and Dallas.
Without question Guerin will be scouring the market for suitable offensive additions, as it's hard to believe the Wild can rely on strong defensive play and elite goaltending to sneak their way out of a top-heavy Western Conference.
With Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson (day-to-day), Vinnie Hinostroza and Marcus Foligno currently sidelined, the Wild's forward corps are currently quite concerning.
The Wild are also expected to be without shutdown defender Jonas Brodin in this matchup, who is quietly a significant needle-mover that has already generated 11.6 expected goals above replacement this season.
It's currently unclear whether the Wild will start Jesper Wallstedt or Filip Gustavsson in goal, though both have been excellent this season, and having such a strong one-two punch is a key reason the Wild are a near lock to make the playoffs out of a thin Western Conference.
Capitals vs. Wild Prediction
With a record of 19-9-5 and having just brought in one of the best skaters in the NHL, the Wild may look like an appealing bet in this matchup. However, they are dealing with a fairly noteworthy slew of injuries and have fared unsustainably well in closely contested games this season, and they likely aren't as formidable as their record suggests.
The Capitals have done an excellent job of responding to losses over the last two seasons and should be able to carry the play at even strength in this matchup quite effectively for a team priced as a slight underdog.
I personally bet the Capitals at +100 yesterday, believing that the market would likely move towards Washington. Seeing as it hasn't, it could be worth waiting to see if Lindgren gets the nod for the Capitals and then betting, given that Lindgren's confirmation would likely move Washington into the +110 range.
Pick: Capitals Moneyline -105 (DraftKings, Play to -110)
