Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/16: The “Regulars” Return for a Busy Saturday

Good morning!

A very busy Saturday slate of games, and with all full-game markets open early that means there is a cascade effect, and all first-period markets opened on time too.

Sometimes you get a straggler or two from the late games while goalie decisions are made, but we have all our numbers, and we can make the best decisions possible.

Yesterday was pretty inactive, with just 4 games, but the two edges that showed in the opening prices both won, including a pretty nice 8%+ edge with the Devils-Wild Over.

Today will be much busier.

A Reminder

If you're new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren't — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Oh, Look…the Blackhawks Again

I could have swapped a few team names in for the Blackhawks, but the point is, teams that have significant "over" or "under" first-period profiles are back again today, in a big way, hopefully doing what they do.

Tampa and Chicago have been predominantly "over" teams, and with their opponents not particularly defensive-minded in the first period, large edges are back on their overs.

Speaking of Dallas and unders, the Stars are back in the edge column, as their opponent, Carolina, is actually mildly conservative in the opening 20 minutes as well.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.