Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 8): How Many Saves Will Aaron Dell Make?

Jan 08, 2019 3:31 PM EST
Credit:

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Dell

  • Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
  • On Tuesday, he looks at the Oilers-Sharks NHL hockey game and the saves made prop for San Jose goalie Aaron Dell.

I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I am publishing a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight one of my favorite props for the day.

A quick note on props: When a line is terribly wrong, I usually don’t even get the chance to write about it, because the line will have corrected by the time most people read the piece.

So the props I’ve written about this year haven’t truly been my favorites or the ones in which I’ve most heavily invested. Rather, they’ve been ones that offer an edge but not one that’s obvious or large enough to be immediately exploited by the market.

That distinction might not matter to some readers, but I want to be transparent about that.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

2-5-1, -2.6 Units

  • Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
  • NFL: 1-2-0, -0.85 Units
  • NBA: 0-1-0, -1.0 Units
  • NHL: 0-0-1, +0.0 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Tuesday, Jan. 8: Aaron Dell Total Saves Over/Under 25.5

The Pick: Under (-115)

UPDATE (10:00 pm ET): After earlier reports to the contrary, it is confirmed that Dell will start for the Sharks tonight.

UPDATE (5:00 pm ET): Martin Jones reportedly will start in the net for the Sharks tonight. If I see a posted line for Jones that is similar to the one for Dell, I will bet it and count it as my official pick.

Full disclosure: I’ve personally done well over the past week, but the picks I’ve chosen to highlight haven’t been profitable. The sample is small, and I’ve liked all the props I’ve written about, but it’s time to get a win for the readers.

There’s a fantastic 11-game NHL slate today, and I’m seeing value in the Sharks-Oilers nightcap, which starts at 10:30 p.m. ET.

The Sharks are at home on the second night of a back-to-back, so they’re expected to start backup goalie Aaron Dell. In the NHL Props Tool, we have Dell projected for a slate-low 19.8 saves, so there’s massive value on the under.

For the year, the Sharks have allowed a league-low 28.07 shots against. Additionally, the Oilers have a bottom-eight mark of 29.38 shots this year, and a look in the FantasyLabs NHL Models shows that they have just 24.75 shots per game over the past month.

And the Oilers are playing their third game in four days, so they might be a little slower with their puck movement and a little less vigorous in attacking the net.

This line is available at Bovada. It opened at 26.0, which is where I bet it, but I see plenty of value at -115 all the way down to 23.5. At 25.5, I’d bet it to -140.

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