Blues-Bruins Game 7 Odds: Myth Busting Common NHL Playoff Betting Theories

Jun 12, 2019 09:45 PM EDT
Credit:

Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask (40) celebrates with right wing David Pastrnak (88)

  • The Boston Bruins are -170 favorites against the St. Louis Blues in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
  • Using Bet Labs, we analyze how home teams and betting favorites perform in Game 7.

The Boston Bruins won Game 6 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final against the St. Louis Blues, setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 on Wednesday night.

Boston is a -170 favorite, meaning the betting market expects the Bruins to win Game 7 on home ice.

But what does betting history say about these matchups? Your guess is as good as anyone’s. Data from Bet Labs shows that it is hard to predict Game 7 winners.

Is Home-Ice Advantage Real?

If you have to play a Game 7, you want it at home. With familiar surroundings and a raucous crowd, home ice should be an advantage in the postseason.

At least that’s the commonly held belief. But sleeping in your own bed the night before a do-or-die playoff game isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be.

Since 2005, the home team is 664-546 (54.9%) in all postseason games. That is the exact same win rate as the regular season during that time: 9,192-7,541 (54.9%). Home ice doesn’t create an extra edge in the playoffs and that is evident in Game 7s.

In Game 7s, the home team has gone 31-28 straight up (SU) since 2005. But what about other factors, like momentum and teams favored in these matchups?

Can Momentum Carry Over?

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