Monday NHL Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames (August 3)
Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Tkachuk, Blake Wheeler
- The Flames are favored over the Jets in Monday afternoon NHL action, with Winnipeg potentially missing two key players in Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele.
- Calgary rolled in Game 1, and the line for Game 2 reflects that.
- Get Mike Leboff's full breakdown for Jets-Flames below.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames Odds
|Jets Odds||+125 [BET NOW]|
|Flames Odds||-145 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||5.5 (+105/-125) [BET NOW]|
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
Of all the qualifying round series, Jets vs. Flames feels the most like a true NHL playoff series. That’s because Saturday night’s Game 1 featured plenty of extracurriculars and a questionable hit by Matthew Tkachuck, which injured Mark Scheifele, one of Winnipeg’s best players.
The hit changed the tone of the series and set off Winnipeg head coach Paul Maurice, who didn’t mince words in his post-game presser. Tkachuk swore up and down he meant nothing malicious by the hit and answered the bell in a fight with Blake Wheeler, but there’s no denying that this series has been turned on its head without Schiefele.
Winnipeg’s misfortune didn’t stop there, however. The Jets also lost Patrik Laine to injury in the game, meaning two of Winnipeg’s three best forwards are doubtful for Game 2.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.
The market reacted about how you’d expected after Game 1: The Flames were the better team and the Jets are likely going to be without Laine and Scheifele, so it isn’t surprising to see Calgary’s price jump 10 cents or so from closing on Saturday.
It may sound weird to say about a team that lost 4-1, but I was actually kind of impressed with the Jets in Game 1. Winnipeg had the worst 5-on-5 metrics in the NHL during the regular season, so it was a little encouraging to see the Jets win the expected goals battle (1.56 to 1.28) at even strength in Game 1. It was just one game and I wouldn’t expect that trend to continue, but it also makes Winnipeg a tad more appetizing for a bet in Game 2, especially because I think these odds may continue to climb.
Nobody is going to want to bet Winnipeg coming off a loss while missing two of its best players, but the cruel reality of betting is that these conditions usually lead to value.
The prospect of betting on the Jets doesn’t excite me one iota. In fact, I think it will be a terrible time. But everything in betting comes down to price, and we’re pretty close to the point where the Jets are in range for a bet.
I’m hoping the line clocks up a bit more before puck drop, but I’m going to be in at +125 or better.