NHL Betting Notebook: A Good Time To Sell High on the Bruins


John E. Sokolowski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brad Marchand

Dec 02, 2019, 10:51 AM EST

American Thanksgiving is now in the rear-view mirror and that means one thing to NHL fans and bettors alike, the race to the playoffs has begun in earnest. It also means we’ve reached a one of the most important checkpoints for 2019-20.

According to Jonathan Willis of The Athletic, 92 of the 96 eventual playoff teams (96%) going back to 2013-14, were either in playoff position or within four points of the final playoff spot in their conference at American Thanksgiving. So if your team is in the hunt now, you have plenty to be thankful for.

Turning the calendar to December also means that we can be grateful to have a decent chunk of data to work with to help make wise investment decisions moving forward.

The purpose of this article is to highlight a few teams that fit the profile of a team that could be overrated or underpriced by the betting market. Oftentimes, teams with great record but middling peripheral metrics will be inflated by the betting market and vice verse.

For example, if a team is 14-4-2 but has a 46% expected goal share, you can probably mark that squad for regression and will likely have good opportunities to fade it at a good price.

Hockey is a sport ultimately ruled by luck, so finding an edge often comes down to identifying which teams are outperforming their metrics relative to their actual results. Keeping these teams in mind can help you beat the market on a more consistent basis. The betting market will almost always catch up to teams, so you want to be early.

Reminder: Everything comes down to price when betting hockey. Just because a team is trending up, doesn’t mean you should blindly bet them in their next game. This is simply a way to profile teams that project to be overrated or underpriced in the betting market based on a variety of factors.

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