Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 2/14: A Clash of Styles in Lightning-Stars

Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 2/14: A Clash of Styles in Lightning-Stars article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyler Seguin

For more information on our first-period model, powered by Ken Barkley’s projections, click here

On Tuesday we started this series and it got off to a great start as the first period model suggested a large edge on five plays. Those bets went 4-1. Yesterday, for those who followed via Twitter, the model had a small edge on the Penguins-Oilers Over 1.5, which lost.

As volatile as a 20-minute-long bet can be, especially in small samples, what I always try to remind people of is that, if the price listed equates 50 percent, and I think it should be 60 percent, even if I am ABSOLUTELY right, the bet will still lose 40 percent of the time.

We are not dealing in absolutes here, which is why the good fortune of Tuesday was unexpected but welcome. It’s just really a comparison of price to identify value.

Nothing actually Locky here, despite my (parody of a) nickname.

There’s a full slate tonight and some things stand out immediately. Let’s get to it.


A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.


Lightning vs. Stars — A Clash of Styles

7:30 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay has been playing wild first periods all season, no pun intended to Minnesota. Meanwhile Dallas boasts an absurdly low Goals For and Goals Allowed Percentage related to their overall numbers in the first period.

How has the market dealt with this contrast? By dealing a pretty “average” juice of -130/+110, essentially saying the two will even each other out.

However, Dallas has been even more “under” than Tampa has been “over,” if you want to think about it in very simplistic terms, so the average is still being pulled down enough for a small value on the under at +110.

The Pick: Under 1.5 Goals (+110)

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders — Thursday’s Winner for Number I Don’t Understand

7 p.m. ET

Several sportsbooks opened the Islanders-Blue Jackets first period total at 1.5 -105/-115, and that was…possibly wildly incorrect.

The Over has a very large edge according to my model, as both teams are well above league-average in terms of the proportion of their goals scored early in the game as opposed to later. When two teams like that meet with similar high-scoring profiles, the projections will only exaggerate that theme even further.

The Bet: Over 1.5 Goals (-105)

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.