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Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/19: We Meet Again, Dallas

Feb 19, 2019 12:01 PM EST
Credit:

Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyler Seguin

Good afternoon.

Projections were a little delayed this morning by a screaming newborn, but hey, that’s what keeps life interesting, right?

We were fortunate yesterday that the teams with optimal first-period “over” profiles kept right on trucking, as Tampa and Chicago both went over in their respective games, which were also wins for the model depending on price.

The afternoon game stayed under for a tiny-edge loss.  And that was about everything.


A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.


Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

8:35 p.m. ET

The Dallas Stars are back, and they have the most conservative first-period profile of any team in the league, by far. They are the anti-Chicago, if you will.

Their under is going to show as an edge in almost any matchup, because the markets aren’t making drastic enough changes to the juice to account for their play.

However, tonight is particularly special for two reasons.

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