Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/19: We Meet Again, Dallas

Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/19: We Meet Again, Dallas article feature image

Jerome Miron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tyler Seguin

Good afternoon.

Projections were a little delayed this morning by a screaming newborn, but hey, that’s what keeps life interesting, right?

We were fortunate yesterday that the teams with optimal first-period “over” profiles kept right on trucking, as Tampa and Chicago both went over in their respective games, which were also wins for the model depending on price.

The afternoon game stayed under for a tiny-edge loss.  And that was about everything.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

8:35 p.m. ET

The Dallas Stars are back, and they have the most conservative first-period profile of any team in the league, by far. They are the anti-Chicago, if you will.

Their under is going to show as an edge in almost any matchup, because the markets aren’t making drastic enough changes to the juice to account for their play.

However, tonight is particularly special for two reasons.

  • Dallas is playing Nashville, which scores the second-fewest proportion of their goals in the first period (Dallas is first).
  • Books realize this to some extent, and have juiced the under like crazy, posting the most juice for a Dallas under since I have been tracking.

The wild thing is, no matter how absurd the price may seem (currently -150), the under is still a play at 10%+ according to the model.

If you like hoping for the most boring first period possible, this is the game for you.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.