NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Ducks vs Senators (Thursday, February 15)
(Photo by Chris Tanouye/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images)
Ducks vs. Senators Odds
| Ducks Odds | +180 |
| Senators Odds | -220 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130o / +110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Anaheim Ducks vs. Ottawa Senators on Thursday, February 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After a promising start to the season, the Ducks have fallen to 18-32-2, sitting only five points ahead of the San Jose Sharks. They hit a new low in Montreal on Tuesday, as they were outshot 38-13 in a 5-0 loss.
The Senators are 7-1-2 in their past 10 games, and they are 6-1-1 since Shane Pinto's return to the lineup. It will take a special run for them to sneak back into the Eastern Conference playoff race, so two points at home against the Ducks are essentially a must.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Ducks vs. Senators prediction.
Aside from a blowout loss in Montreal, Greg Cronin's Ducks have stabilized of late, posting a 4-5-1 record in their past 10 games. Their play hasn't improved as much as their record suggests, though. Only in their win over the Buffalo Sabres on Jan. 23 were they the better team. Otherwise, they have been carried by excellent goaltending.
In 16 games since the new year, the Ducks have allowed 34.14 SA/60, and 3.70 xGA/60. Even with their goaltending playing better than expected in this span, they have allowed 3.62 goals against per game.
Anaheim was the league's worst defensive team last season, and its defensive-zone coverage under Dallas Eakins was downright horrible at times. Greg Cronin has enforced a more structured style, but the recent run looks closer to last season's team than the one we saw earlier this year.
Much of that comes down to the roster construction. The defensive struggles aren't simply growing pains from young stars Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, but more so the roster's inability to possess the puck. Even veterans like Alex Killorn and Cam Fowler are getting caved in at even strength this season. Fowler and Jackson LaCombe have played to an xGF% of just 39.5 in 383.5 minutes of even-strength play. They are likely to play together tonight.
John Gibson should get the start in goal. He has played to a 5.4 GSAx despite owning a SV% of only .901 in his 33 appearances this season.
With Shane Pinto back in the lineup, the Senators feature a deep, well-balanced offense capable of attacking in waves. Their 3.58 xGF/60 in the last 10 games is the NHL's sixth-highest mark, and they have capitalized on their quality looks with 3.80 goals per game.
By no means have the Senators been bad on the other end, either. They have allowed only 27.74 SA/60 over the last 10 games, which is seventh-best in the league. The team continues to suffer from below-average goaltending, though, as in those matchups their goalies have combined for just a .895 SV%.
Jake Sanderson will remain sidelined for this matchup, which hurts the Senators' upside at both ends of the ice. With Sanderson out, we can count on more lofty usage for Thomas Chabot, who has averaged over 28 minutes in the last four games.
Joonas Korpisalo has been confirmed as the Senators' starter in this matchup. He has played to a -11.9 GSAx and a .890 SV% in 34 appearances this season.
(ESPN Bet has arrived! Tap into the extensive NHL betting markets with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.)
Ducks vs. Senators
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Ducks will likely respond with a sharper effort after a comically bad showing on Tuesday. They should generate a bit more on the offensive side, but their defensive upside is low with how good the Senators' offense has been.
The Senators are one of the hottest teams in the league, and the main reason has been their elite offensive play. They're right at the top of the league in high-danger chance creation of late, and they have been rewarded with strong offensive outputs. Their goaltending remains a concern, though, and holding teams to less than three goals continues to prove difficult no matter the opponent.
The total is set a little too low here, as I believe the line should be set at 7 with even prices each way. I know the Ducks are a somewhat low-event team, but not enough for me to pass on a price of 6.5 on a Senators game right now. Anything better than -140 is a play on the over for me.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-130 at Bet365 | Play to -140)
How would you rate this article?