Champions League Betting Breakdown for Every Tuesday Match

Champions League Betting Breakdown for Every Tuesday Match article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid celebrating a goal

  • Champions League Tuesday action is headlined by a marquee matchup of Manchester United hosting Juventus (3 p.m. ET on TNT), but there's plenty of other intriguing matchups.
  • After analyzing the betting market for each game on the board, I've picked out three value plays.

The third round of the Champions League group stage starts Tuesday with a lot to be excited about, including Cristiano Ronaldo’s return to Old Trafford with Juventus.

There are also big favorites like Real Madrid, Manchester City and Bayern Munich who don’t want to drop more points, which they’ve all done so far.

Here’s a quick look at the most lopsided bets before getting into each match.

Most Lopsided Betting Percentages

Manchester City, Valencia and Juventus are attracting the most public action, and all of them are on the road. Odds have moved in favor of Man City, but have gone away from both Valencia and Juve.

There’s plenty of value on the board and I’ve broken down the betting market to pick out three value plays.

Season Record: 3-1-1 (+2.07 units)


>> All odds and betting percentages as of Monday at 5 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League odds and track your bets.


Bayern Munich at AEK Athens (12:55 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Bayern (-390), AEK (+1140), Draw (+530)
Total: 3 (o-119)

Bayern Munich is coming off a disappointing draw at home against Ajax in their previous Champions League match and actually find themselves in a battle for Group E supremacy. They’re still heavy favorites to top the group, even though they haven’t found their form in any competition yet this season.

AEK Athens have dropped both group matches so far and are +1140 on the moneyline to pull off the home upset Tuesday. Odds have moved away from them since opening, and bettors seem to feel very confident in Bayern quickly turning things around against them. I’m not so optimistic about that, and at -400 odds on the road, I’d be passing.

Valencia at Young Boys (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Valencia (+110), Young Boys (+280), Draw (+245)
Total: 2.5 (o-109)

Neither club has scored a goal in the group stage yet, though Valencia did earn a valuable point with a 1-1 draw at Manchester United last round.

The odds for this match looked suspect at first, and public bettors have agreed. More than 70% of bets has come in on the Spanish side, however the line has actually moved away from them. This looks to be a great spot to fade the public and back the contrarian home underdog.

That’s exactly what I’ll be doing by taking Young Boys +0.5 (-120), and hoping they can at least pick up a draw at home.

Lyon at Hoffenheim (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Lyon (+215), Hoffenheim (+120), Draw (+287)
Total: 3 (o-102)

Hoffenheim have a big chance to get right back into Group F with a victory over leaders Lyon, and odds have been moving in their favor.

Since opening, the moneyline has dipped from +140 to +120 on the home side, and shifted away from both Lyon and the draw. Goals are also expected with an over/under listed at a juiced-up 3.

The edge has to go to Hoffenheim here, and I think there’s still value to be had at +120 odds.

 

Manchester City at Shakhtar Donetsk (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Man City (-275), Shakhtar (+670), Draw (+490)
Total: 3.5 (u-117)

In the other Group F match, Manchester City have a very tricky match in Ukraine, although odds suggest a comfortable win for the Citizens.

The line opened -240/-250 around the market and increased to -275, while the over has also seen considerable action despite the high total of 3.5.

Shakhtar have drawn their first two group matches and would gladly take another one against Manchester City. However, money seems to be on the other side. Even though I’m still a believer in them to advance, I don’t like their chances against an in-form City.

Juventus at Manchester United (3 p.m. ET on TNT and Univision)
Moneylines: Juventus (+150), Man Utd (+210), Draw (+230)
Total: 3 (o-120)

Manchester United don’t always play the most thrilling matches, but last weekend’s 2-2 draw at Chelsea should give a bit of scoring confidence.

Early money seems to be more confident in Manchester United, too, as their odds have moved from +235 to +210. Right now the total is 2.5, but with heavy juice on the under, it could come down to 2. Neither Juventus not United have conceded in group play yet.

 

Benfica at Ajax (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Benfica (+295), Ajax (+100), Draw (+270)
Total: 2.5 (o-118)

Ajax are surprisingly on top of Group E after two matches but another test awaits with Benfica coming to town. With Bayern Munich still lurking, a win will go a long way for either side.

Bets have come in on both Ajax and Benfica, and there’s been very little line movement around the market. This may be the match I’m most excited about for Tuesday and it could go any way.

Viktoria Plzen at Real Madrid (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Plzen (+3300), Real Madrid (-1400), Draw (+1200)
Total: 4 (u-119)

Real Madrid have struggled in both the Champions League and Spain’s La Liga this season, and they’re coming off another loss, 2-1, to Levante on Saturday.

Moneyline underdogs have already earned more than +30 units against Real Madrid this season including upset wins by Levante (+1950), Alaves (+923), CSKA Moscow (+545) and Sevilla (+345).

Viktoria Plzen are +3300 underdogs to pull off another, and it’s not the worst investment for a small amount. A high total of 4 goals suggests this will be a multi-goal win by Real Madrid, but it’ll be interesting to see which version of the Spanish giants we’ll get.

CSKA Moscow at Roma (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: CSKA (+870), Roma (-285), Draw (+430)
Total: 3 (u-121)

CSKA Moscow should be brimming with confidence after beating Real Madrid in the previous group stage match. They’re listed at +870 to pull off another victory, but they’ll be on the road this time.

Roma lost to SPAL on Saturday, 2-0, as heavy home favorites, and may not exactly be worthy of the -285 price tag. There are plenty of public bettors taking a chance on CSKA and I tend to agree with them.


Biggest Line Moves

  • Both Manchester clubs have had the line move their way, while Hoffenheim are also attracting the attention of oddsmakers.
  • There’s also been movement toward big favorites Bayern Munich (-400).

Value Bets

  • Young Boys +0.5 (-120) vs. Valencia
  • Hoffenheim (+120) vs. Lyon
  • CSKA Moscow +1.5 (-115) at Roma