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Champions League Final Betting Odds, Analysis, Preview: Real Madrid Team Profile, Projected Starting XI, Key Stats, More

Champions League Final Betting Odds, Analysis, Preview: Real Madrid Team Profile, Projected Starting XI, Key Stats, More article feature image
Credit:

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid standout Vinícius Júnior.

Liverpool vs. Real Madrid Odds

Liverpool Odds +105
Real Madrid Odds +250
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +105) 
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Making its 17th appearance in the Champions League final, no club is more decorated in Europe’s top club competition than Real Madrid. However, this season’s route to the final might be the best of the bunch.

The spectacular individual displays from Karim Benzema, Vinícius Jr. and Luka Modrić have carried the Spanish club. Needless to say, they’re hungry to add to their silverware this season with the biggest crown of all.

Real Madrid Profile

How Los Blancos Got Here

Real Madrid dominated Group D with five wins out of its six games against Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Sheriff, with the only blemish coming against the Moldovan champion.

If the group stage was easy, the knockout rounds have been far from it for Madrid. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team used an incredible second-leg comeback to beat Paris Saint-Germain in the Round of 16 before needing extra time to eliminate Chelsea in the quarterfinals.

The dramatics didn’t end there, with the Spanish side able to turnaround a 4-3 defeat in the opening leg at Manchester City with another victory in extra time to secure its place in the UCL final. That win against the Premier League champions included two late goals by Rodrygo in the 90th and 91st minutes to make it happen.

Madrid was fueled by the home crowd and atmosphere of the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium to survive the knockout rounds. However, Los Blancos won’t be able to rely on a home leg if they plan to lift the trophy for the 14th time in their storied history.

Biggest Result on Road to Final

While you could pick any of the knockout matches, this magical run started in the second leg against French champion PSG in my opinion.

Madrid dropped the road game via a 1-0 loss before allowing a first-half goal to Kylian Mbappé in the home match. However, a second-half hat trick by Karim Benzema was the start of what has become a thrilling, sensational run to this final at the Stade de France in Paris.


Projected Starting XI

Lineup notes: Ancelotti will likely opt for the extra man in midfield with Federico Valverde, but you will see on-form striker Rodrygo and Eduardo Camavinga coming off the bench for fresh legs.

Key defender David Alaba is expected to be back at the heart of the defense. If he’s not fit, Nacho has been the recent replacement in previous matches.


Three Key Statistics

  1. Madrid finished Group D with a +5.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, but the Spanish club then lost the xG battle in all three knockout rounds for a -1.9 xGDiff overall.
  2. In the six home games in the competition, Los Blancos averaged +0.75 xGDiff per match. Meanwhile, they posted a -0.16 xGDiff per 90 minutes average in the six road fixtures.
  3. Ancelotti’s team has a mark of +6.4 goals minus xG, which is second behind Bayern Munich in the competition.

Two Biggest Strengths

  1. Benzema, who is having the best season of all players on the field, will be relied on to score the goals to win the title as well.
  2. Not many teams can match up to Liverpool’s three in the midfield, but with the experience and class of Casemiro, Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić (plus the added help of Valverde), Madrid’s midfield will be up for the challenge.

Two Areas of Concern

  1. The form of the team away from home.
  2. Shaky Defense. Madrid conceded 1.8 xG per match in the knockout rounds

Biggest ‘X Factor’ on Pitch

The easy answer would be Benzema, but another player who will be very vital in this final is Vinícius Júnior.

Going up against Liverpool’s press and high line, his speed and runs in behind will help Madrid escape pressure and hit on the counterattack.


Final Thoughts

Madrid has only lost three UCL finals, with the last one coming against Liverpool in the 1980-81 finale.

Los Blancos won the last meeting between the clubs in the 2017-18 final. The starters that day included four from this season’s side (Carvajal, Casemiro, Kroos and Modrić).

If Madrid wins, it will be the 14th time the Spanish giant has lifted the trophy, which would be double the amount of the next-closest club in AC Milan.

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