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Updated Champions League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Expert Tips: Our Staff’s 6 Favorite Prop Bets for Liverpool vs. Real Madrid, Including Mohamed Salah & Vinícius Júnior

Updated Champions League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Expert Tips: Our Staff’s 6 Favorite Prop Bets for Liverpool vs. Real Madrid, Including Mohamed Salah & Vinícius Júnior article feature image
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David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid standout Vinícius Júnior.

  • Looking for prop bets with plenty of value ahead of Saturday’s Champions League final?
  • Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Anthony Dabbundo, Brett Pund and Nick Hennion have dropped their 6 favorite wagers.
  • Check out what they like below for the showdown down between Liverpool and Real Madrid.

While many bettors are focused on a side or total ahead of Saturday’s Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid, there are plenty of other juicy betting angles on the props market.

From team totals to bets connected to players’ goals and shots, as well as so much more, there is no shortage of wagering opportunities to target ahead of the title match at Stade de France in Saint-Denis.

Action Network handicappers Jeremy Pond, Nick HennionAnthony Dabbundo and Brett Pund have delivered their favorite prop bets ahead of the highly anticipated clash. The quartet has come up with an array of picks, featuring plenty of betting value across the market.

That said, let’s take a look at their top plays ahead of the championship match.


Our UCL Final Top Prop Bets

ANALYST PICK | ODDS BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond  Mohamed Salah — Anytime Goal (+125) BetMGM
Nick Hennion Liverpool TT Over 2.5 (+300) DraftKings
Anthony Dabbundo Vinícius Júnior — 1 or More SOT (-125) DraftKings
Brett Pund Half With Most Goals — Second (+110) FanDuel
Nick Hennion Vinícius Júnior — Anytime Goal (+280) FanDuel
Jeremy Pond Liverpool TT Over 1.5 (-110) BetMGM

*TT — Team Total Goals | SOT — Shots On Goal

Get up-to-the-minute Champions League odds here.


Jeremy Pond: Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime (+125)

Not many of us get a shot at revenge when it comes to something that happened in the past. However, Mohamed Salah will get his when takes the Stade de France pitch.

In the 2018 final, the Liverpool talisman was forced to leave the UCL final when he took a nasty challenge from former Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos that resulted in him separating his shoulder. Salah left the field in tears and proceeded to watch the Reds go on to suffer a 3-1 loss in Kyiv.

🗣 “I’m very motivated to the roof especially what happened with [Real] Madrid last time.”

Mohamed Salah on facing Real Madrid in the #UCL final. 💪 pic.twitter.com/r2TqqPfpHI

— Football Daily (@footballdaily) May 25, 2022

Bottom line, Salah is arguably the best player in the world. I don’t care who you put him up against stats wise or anything else when ranking global footballers. But a motivated Salah with a massive chip on that now-healthy shoulder is another animal Los Blancos will have to deal with in this affair.

When the matchup between Liverpool and Real Madrid was set, I immediately went looking for odds tied to the Egyptian international scoring a goal. And getting this price is good enough for me to jump on this wager.

Four years. That’s how long Salah has waited for this moment. Expect one of his finest performances ever in a Liverpool kit.

Nick Hennion: Liverpool Team Total Over 2.5 (+300)

Let’s call this the “all-goes-right” scenario for the Liverpool attack.

Through six UCL knockout-round fixtures, the Reds’ offense has generated 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes. Just in the three first-leg performances (when Liverpool was presumably playing with more motivation), it generated 2.18 xG per 90 minutes and 12 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Plus, manager Jürgen Klopp’s side has cleared this number in three of its last four games and scored at least twice in all but one Champions League fixture. Further, just in its last four Premier League matches since the second leg against Villarreal, Liverpool created 1.95 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

"Make sure we're going to be on fire!" 🔥

Sadio Mane is READY for the Champions League 💪pic.twitter.com/28YqABHYnX

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 25, 2022

On the flip side, Real Madrid’s defense has played horrifically since dispatching Manchester City. In four La Liga fixtures since the second leg against the Cityzens, Los Blancos have allowed 1.93 xG/90 minutes. During that span, Madrid saw Cádiz and Levante — two bottom-four sides in the Spanish top flight — create 3.8 combined xG (1.3 and 2.5, respectively) in the process.

Plus, the Madrid defense conceded at least 1.5 xG in two of its last three UCL fixtures and at least three goals in two of its last three UCL outings.

For those reasons, I expect Liverpool to get at least two goals and am willing to take a flyer at +300 odds it gets to three goals.

Anthony DabbundoVinícius Júnior — 1 Or More Shots on Goal (-125)

When Real Madrid knocked Liverpool out of the Champions League in the quarterfinal last season, Vinícius Júnior was a major reason why. His pace and ability to run the channel between pushed-up right back Trent Alexander-Arnold, along with Liverpool’s center backs, caused all kinds of problems.

Virgil van Dijk is back for Liverpool and that makes a huge difference in stopping Vini Jr., but the 21-year-old winger has also taken a huge leap in his production this season.

He has improved his shot-creating actions per 90 from 3.2 to 5.9 overall. He’s also carrying the ball into the penalty area, passing into the box and creating scoring chances at a considerably higher clip. His combinations with Karim Benzema have carried Real Madrid to the final and they’re sure to be another threat.

17 goals and 13 assists.

The season Vinicius Junior transformed into a Galactico 🌟 pic.twitter.com/7t6K6vpPjr

— GOAL (@goal) May 20, 2022

While Reece James and Kyle Walker were largely able to contain him in the last two knockout matches, Alexander-Arnold isn’t nearly as effective as a defender. Liverpool makes tactical choices to push Alexander-Arnold up the pitch and take risks because he’s so incredible producing chances.

Manager Jürgen Klopp is betting the Reds will create more opportunities than the opponent this way, but the door will be open for Vini Jr. to produce at the other end of the pitch.

Given that Fabinho is questionable and Jordan Henderson doesn’t cover as much ground — and they’d be the players filling for Alexander-Arnold when he pushes up — the Reds will be vulnerable here.He’s improved his finishing this year as well.

For that reason, I think he’s going to play a big part in Real Madrid’s attack.

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Brett Pund: Half With Most Goals — Second (+110)

Anytime we get to the final of any competition, the first half of those matches can be cagey and low scoring, which is why I’m backing more goals to be scored in the second half at +110 odds.

We all know the dramatic run of late goals Real Madrid has used to secure its place in this game, but this has also been a profitable UCL bet. In the six knockout-round matches, this same play has cashed in all but one of them.

As for the English side, Liverpool’s games have also seen more goals after halftime, with this play hitting in five out of the last six matches in the competition.

You can also look back at how this bet has fared in the recent UCL finals. Over the last 10 championship games, teams have found the back of the net more times in the second half than the first on six of those occasions, including the last final between the two sides in the 2018 competition.

I do expect there to be goals here, so I’m banking on them coming after both experienced, world-class managers have time to make changes at halftime.

Jeremy Pond: Liverpool Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

Just going off the Reds’ advanced metrics over an extremely large sample size, I simply do not see how you don’t land on this wager. Liverpool, led by Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané and Luis Díaz, has arguably the hottest attack in the world, so scoring two goals against a sketchy Real Madrid defense that faded badly down the stretch shouldn’t be any sort of reach.

And if you’re looking to pinpoint exactly why you’re getting value over the Reds’ team total clearing 1.5 goals at -110 odds, you only have to look at their actual/xG numbers over a 15-game sample heading into this clash:

  • Liverpool scored at least twice in a stunning 12 of those matches across all competitions, including six fixtures that resulted in the EPL giant tallying three goals or more.
  • As for the xG data, it’s just as impressive. The Reds cleared the 1.5 team total 10 out of the 13 times the statistic was recorded. There weren’t any xG stats for two FA Cup affairs. On seven occasions, they wound up with a minimum of 2.0 xG for their efforts.
  • Liverpool finished with 1.6 xG or more in its last five UCL knockout-phase games that generated 11 totals goals, including at least three in their last four fixtures in the competition.

If those juicy facts aren’t enough evidence of support, Salah and his teammates are catching a Real Madrid side that conceded 1.5 xGA or more in its six of its last seven games overall. Even uglier is the fact Los Blancos yielded a combined 7.8 xGA in its last four tilts to close out the La Liga season.

Bottom line, Liverpool should have its way breaking down the Real Madrid defense and get past this number. And if you’re extremely confident in the Reds, tail Nick’s play above at even bigger odds if you’re feeling even friskier.

Nick Hennion: Vinícius Júnior To Score Anytime (+280)

If there’s one weakness on the Liverpool defense, it’s Trent Alexander-Arnold at right back.

Across the last 365 days, Alexander-Arnold ranks in the bottom 20 percent in Europe in all of the following defensive categories: pressures, tackles, blocks, clearances and aerial duels won. In fact, the only defensive category in which he ranks in the 80th percentile or better is interceptions, per fbref.com.

Those issues will be exacerbated against Real Madrid winger Vinícius Júnior, who has proven a constant threat in the knockout rounds. Although he generated only one goal on 1.4 xG in Real Madrid’s last five UCL contests, the Brazilian winger has been involved in four of Its 12 non-penalty goals since the knockouts began.

Furthermore, if you look closely at the seven Liverpool concessions made in the knockout phase, all but two attacks originated on the right-back side, while all but one were ultimately finished in that section of the pitch.

Given Liverpool’s strength in central defense, I don’t expect Karim Benzema to run rampant again. Add in the fact Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson tend to force themselves forward and I believe you’ll see Vini Jr. have an opportunity to get on the scoresheet at a nice price.

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